加息到5%以上？未来数周，美联储官员或许会密集放风

华尔街见闻2022-10-20

瑞银预计，联邦基金利率的目标区间将在2022年底达到4.5%至4.75%，2023年底达到5.0%至5.25%。瑞银预计，越来越多的FOMC成员将主张把联邦基金利率提高至5%以上。瑞银在10月18日的研报中指出，预计美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将在11月的会议上加息75个基点，在12月加息75个基点，在2023年2月加息50个基点。联邦基金利率的目标区间将在2022年底达到4.5%至...

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精彩评论

福雷亩
2022-11-14
福雷亩
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
国之良栋
2022-10-20
国之良栋
6%以上，达到核心CPI的水平
邪流
2022-10-20
邪流
不如回到1985年

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In the coming weeks, Fed officials may be intensively on the lookout","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646a4eae61be2fa271e9ca4e9c530b06","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"瑞银预计，联邦基金利率的目标区间将在2022年底达到4.5%至4.75%，2023年底达到5.0%至5.25%。瑞银预计，越来越多的FOMC成员将主张把联邦基金利率提高至5%以上。瑞银在10月18日的研报中指出，预计美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将在11月的会议上加息75个基点，在12月加息75个基点，在2023年2月加息50个基点。联邦基金利率的目标区间将在2022年底达到4.5%至4.75%，2023年底达到5.0%至5.25%。瑞银还另外上调了对12月和2月的加息幅度预期，并推迟了对其降息时间的预期，防止实际利率随着通胀的下降而上升。美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国9月核心CPI同比上涨6.6%，高于预期，并再创1982年8月以来的新高。瑞银认为，这增加了美联储下个月继续加息75个基点的可能性。但一些FOMC成员可能倾向于放缓加息步伐，预计这场争论将持续到年底。因此，瑞银认为FOMC在12月的会议上有可能只加息50个基点。然而，瑞银预测美国今年第四季度的核心PCE通胀为4.6%，比FOMC在9月的预测中值高0.1个百分点，并且大多数FOMC成员可能会继续上修他们的预期，并将更多通胀因素纳入考虑，这意味着更大的加息幅度，以及更高的利率峰值。瑞银认为，在未来几周会听到更多FOMC成员讨论将联邦基金利率的目标区间提高到5%或更高。如果采用符合9月FOMC经济预测摘要（SEP）的政策规则，并用对12月的SEP通胀预测替换掉对9月SEP的预测，就意味着2023年初联邦基金利率的目标区间将超过5%。瑞银总结道，预计未来还会有更多的加息，而硬着陆的风险正在上升。上周，巴克莱也在报告中指出，预计美联储加息步伐将更加激进，可能在2023年将利率峰值提高到5%水平以上。具体来看，巴克莱预计美联储11和12月各加息75个基点，明年2月份加息50个基点，利率峰值将在2月份达到5.00-5.25%，高于之前的预期4.50-4.75%。这些华尔街投行的预测也与近期美联储官员的立场不谋而合。上周，鹰派倾向的美联储官员、今年拥有货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的堪萨斯联储主席乔治（Esther George）表示，鉴于通胀顽固居高不下，美联储可能必须提高利率峰值，并将那个水平的利率保持得更久。相比这点，她更警惕的是行动的速度以及激进的程度。联储料将必须持续加息，但加息过快可能扰乱金融市场。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":667062619,"gmtCreate":1668437929732,"gmtModify":1668439304110,"author":{"id":"3535348245787846","authorId":"3535348245787846","name":"福雷亩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/636b7bfc97835f1a847c20b68da0b75a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3535348245787846","idStr":"3535348245787846"},"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667062619","repostId":1158040229,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":662162022,"gmtCreate":1666265773666,"gmtModify":1666265776589,"author":{"id":"3586813115727121","authorId":"3586813115727121","name":"国之良栋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d05dc1b67998000fec87bbf2ce7890a3","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586813115727121","idStr":"3586813115727121"},"htmlText":"6%以上，达到核心CPI的水平","listText":"6%以上，达到核心CPI的水平","text":"6%以上，达到核心CPI的水平","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/662162022","repostId":1158040229,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":662194007,"gmtCreate":1666247040609,"gmtModify":1666247051805,"author":{"id":"3578412715743468","authorId":"3578412715743468","name":"邪流","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/812a648a7339f09cd4b245a4e282067e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578412715743468","idStr":"3578412715743468"},"htmlText":"不如回到1985年","listText":"不如回到1985年","text":"不如回到1985年","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/662194007","repostId":1158040229,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":14,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1158040229"}