PayPal Earnings Beat Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.

PayPal stock tumbled nearly 5% after the payments company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts but offered below-consensus guidance.

PayPal reported an adjusted profit of $1.15 a share, beating forecasts for $1.13 on sales of $6.24 billion, missing analyst estimates for $6.27 billion. PayPal also said it would earn $1.07 a share in the third quarter, below estimates for $1.14, while sales guidance of $6.15 to $6.25 billion came in shy of expectations for $6.43

“3Q outlook will drive the narrative, with revenues guided ~3.5% below Street ests. and EPS ~6% below,” writes Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams.

PayPal highlighted the impact of eBay‘s transition to a “managed payments” system as one source of slower growth. TPV growth was 40% with eBay, 48% without out, while sales grew at a 32% clip without eBay versus 19% with.

“We’re now absorbing more pressure from eBay than we had previously expected,” CFO John Rainey said on a call with analysts. He added that the company is “planning for eBay’s drag on our revenue growth to be greater than previously expected. The drag will amount to 8.5 percentage points of growth on third quarter revenue, shaving off $465 million and taking revenue to an estimated $6.2 billion.

Mizuho Securities’ Dan Dolev urged investors to take the longer view. While it’s true that the “Covid honeymoon may be over,” he wrote, referring to PayPal’s phenomenal growth in 2020, he highlighted several positives in the earnings report, including stronger engagement with PayPal’s core apps and momentum in new initiatives like “buy now pay later,” which saw 49% quarterly volume growth in transactions.

He also points out that PayPal’s boosted its total payment volume guidance from 30% to 33%-35% in the third quarter, 10 points higher than prepandemic levels. “This suggests strong e-commerce trends and PYPL’s share gains are here to stay,” he wrote in a note.

But expectations for the stock may be tough to meet at this juncture, and there were signs of pressure that may be building.

PayPal, for instance, reported that it’s continuing to see weakness in the “take rate” it charges merchants, referring to the payments they make to PayPal for its services. The rate fell from 2.21% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 2.11% in the first quarter and 2.01% in the second quarter. PayPal attributed the decline to lower eBay volumes and declines in foreign exchange fees, but it may also indicate that PayPal is facing more competitive pricing pressure.