Nvidia Stock In 10 Years: What You Should Consider

seekingalpha2021-07-30

Summary NVIDIA Corporation has been an outstanding investment over the last decade, but that will not repeat over the next decade. The company offers strong quality, great management, and has an ...

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精彩评论

BengGhee
2021-07-31
BengGhee
Great future!
Alan_Goh
2021-07-31
Alan_Goh
I read so much about Nvidia and use their product on my device. But I have not checked out this stock personally. I think the stock split lower down the barrier to ownership (:
- ParableTalen:
  I'm not sure what's stopping Ppl from buying even tho it's priced higher. it's the number of shares bought that affects dividends distributed but the capital invested and returns that mainly matter.
Cjwee
2021-07-31
Cjwee
Needs to retrace for entry
Bull_Horn
2021-07-31
Bull_Horn
Great
alexchuahg
2021-07-31
alexchuahg
What price is a good price? it is a million dollar question... It is always market consensus that moves the market... The richer you are, the more convincing in the market... It is the game of the rich...
niselle
2021-07-31
niselle
The stock hasnt gained much after its stock split...
- DingDang:
  Yeah!!

发表看法

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The stock trades, however, at a pretty high valuation, compared to other semiconductor stocks and relative to other growth mega-caps. To some extent, this premium valuation is justified, but it seems logical to assume that total returns will, in the long run, be negatively impacted by multiple compression. Over the next decade, NVIDIA Corporation still has considerable upside potential, even though I assume that its valuation will compress significantly.\nWill NVIDIA Stock Continue To Rise?\nThere are two answers to this question, I believe. In the short term, price action is driven by sentiment, news items, etc. to a large degree, so it is more or less impossible to forecast where the price will be a week, a month, or half a year from now. NVIDIA has a beta of 1.4, which means that, generally, it moves in the same direction as the broad market, but with more pronounced movements. So if the market rises by 10% over the next half-year, one may reasonably assume that NVIDIA will rise by 14% over the same time frame. Since short-term moves in the broad market are largely driven by things like Fed statements, sentiment, worries about the Delta variant, etc. there is a lot of uncertainty for where broad markets and NVIDIA will head over the near future. NVIDIA's current RSI (relative strength index) is 54, which indicates that shares are neither overbought nor oversold today. The current analyst price target, per YCharts, is $194, which is almost perfectly in line with the current share price. Prices could move up or down in the near term, the price target consensus and the RSI paint a mostly neutral picture for now. Shares could continue to climb, but this is far from certain, and I surely wouldn't speculate on significant gains in the near term.\nIn the long run, share prices are largely driven by earnings growth and changes in a stock's valuation, thus sentiment or news items are less important when it comes to NVIDIA's share price a decade from now. It is, of course, not possible to forecast the share price exactly, but we can look at scenarios that paint a picture of where shares could be heading. As I am a long-term focused investor and not much of a trader, the question of where NVIDIA will be a decade from now is, I believe, the more important one compared to the question of where NVIDIA will be in September or December.\nWhere Will NVIDIA Stock Be In 10 Years\nLet's start with the note that NVIDIA's performance over the last ten years, a 5,500% gain, will certainly not repeat over the next decade. This would make NVIDIA's market capitalization balloon to$27 trillion, which is absolutely unrealistic, I believe, even for a high-growth company like NVIDIA. Nevertheless, even if future share price gains are less exciting, NVIDIA could still be a very solid investment, as ten-year returns of 5,000%+ are not at all required to make a stock a solid choice.\nToday, NVIDIA trades at 49x this year's expected net profits, which is a rather high valuation, especially for a company with a market cap as large as NVIDIA's. Most other high-growth mega-caps, such as Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) trade at significantly lower valuations, with earnings multiples around 30. Tesla (TSLA) is even more expensive than NVIDIA, trading at more than 100x this year's net profits, but I believe that this is not a great example of where growth stocks should trade, as I believe that TSLA is significantly overvalued.\nGoing back to NVIDIA, we can also look at how the company was valued in the past:\nData by YCharts\nThe 5-year to 10-year median earnings multiples are 29-48 for NVDA, thus it looks like shares are definitely trading on the expensive side today. It should be noted that the growth outlook a couple of years ago, when NVIDIA was significantly smaller, was better than it is today, mainly due to the law of large numbers, which states that maintaining high relative growth rates becomes harder as a company grows in size. The fact that shares are currently trading well above the longer-term median valuation is thus noteworthy, as one might expect that valuationsdeclineas a company matures.\nCompared to other semi stocks, NVIDIA looks relatively expensive as well:\nData by YCharts\nNVIDIA trades at a premium to direct peers such as AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC), and its stock is also more expensive than that of other large-cap semis such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Broadcom (AVGO). An above-average valuation does make sense, thanks to NVIDIA's outstanding fundamentals and strong growth rates, but it seems highly doubtful whether the company will continue to trade at almost 50x net profits forever.\nNVIDIA addresses a range of growth markets, such as data centers, gaming equipment, and so on. These markets will continue to grow for the foreseeable future, but they do, of course, not grow by 80% a year forever, which was NVIDIA's top-line growth rate during the most recent quarter. It thus seems very likely that revenue growth will slow down considerably from the current level, even when we assume that NVIDIA will continue to take market share here and there, e.g. in data centers.\nAnalysts do thus, not surprisingly, see a considerable slowdown in NVIDIA's business growth in the coming years, even though growth will remain highly attractive for sure:\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nRevenue growth of almost 50% this year, and of 11%-16% over the following four years is still pretty attractive for sure, relative to how the average company and the economy are growing. It also seems possible that NVIDIA will beat analyst estimates, delivering somewhat higher growth, as the company has a history of delivering upside estimates -- nine out of the last ten quarterly releases beat estimates on both lines. Even if we assume that analyst estimates are too conservative, it seems relatively logical that they will at least be in the ballpark of where actual results will land -- a revenue growth rate of 80% for the remainder of 2021, or a revenue growth rate of 50% for 2022, is not realistic.\nWhen we assume that the current revenue estimates for 2025 are too low by ~10%, and that actual revenues will total $45 billion, and that revenues will grow by 10% a year between 2026 and 2031, we get to a 2031 top line of $80 billion. Right now, NVDA's net margin is 34% (most recent quarter), which is outstanding. Operating leverage should lift NVDA's operating margin in the coming years, but on the other hand, NVDA's current tax rate is pretty low at 3% during the most recent quarter. When we assume that tax rates will climb to 10%, this could offset tailwinds from operating margin expansion, thus it is far from guaranteed that NVDA's net margin will rise by a lot. If the net margin stands at 35% in 2031, NVDA would earn about $28 billion in net profits a decade from now. If the share count remains unchanged, that would equate to earnings per share of $11.10. If NVDA were to trade at the same 49x net profits it trades at today, that would lead to a share price of $540, which would equate to total returns of 180%. As mentioned earlier, I believe that multiple compression is likely, due to a range of reasons -- slowing growth, the current premium to the historic median, and the current premium over the broad market and NVDA's peers.\nWhen we do, thus, assume that the valuation compresses to around 30x net profits, which would be relatively in-line with the 10-year median earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $330 a decade from now. Over the next decade, this would pencil out to returns of a little over 70%, or about 5%-6% a year. NVDA wouldn't be a bad choice in this scenario, but not an outstanding pick, either. We can also look at a somewhat more optimistic scenario where NVDA grows its revenue by 15% a year between 2026 and 2031, in that case, with everything else held constant, NVDA would trade at $430 in 2031, which would allow for total returns of 8%-9% a year from the current price of $195.\nOverall, I thus believe that it is very likely that investors will see gains from the current level in the long run, but those gains will likely be far lower compared to what we have seen in recent years. High-single-digit annual returns seem like a realistic target range from the current, elevated, valuation.\nIs NVIDIA A Good Long-Term Investment?\nNVIDIA has great fundamentals, a clean balance sheet, strong margins and returns on capital, excellent management, and is in a great position tech-wise. On top of that, NVDA operates in a growing industry that is integral to our way of life. Overall, those are some great reasons to invest in its stock, but there is one additional factor that investors should keep in mind. NVDA's valuation is well above the long-term median, well above the valuations of its peers, and it seems pretty likely that this valuation will eventually compress, as growth will inevitably decline from the current immense 80% year-over-year pace. I would thus say that NVDA is a good long-term investment for sure, but not at every price. At current prices, it seems like a solid long-term investment, but not like a spectacular one. Others that have different growth assumptions or that see a different target earnings multiple 5 or 10 years from now will potentially have a different opinion on that, however.\nIs NVIDIA Stock A Good Buy Right Now?\nNVIDIA undoubtedly has been a great buy for almost everyone that bought over the last decade, but past returns do not equate to future returns. It is almost guaranteed that returns in the coming years will be significantly lower than what we have seen over the last decade. I believe that returns, in the long run, will be solid, but I do not believe that the current return outlook makes NVDA a screaming buy at current prices. NVDA traded at less than $140 (split-adjusted) a couple of months ago, and at that price, I'd see shares as a way better investment. At $190+, shares are too expensive for me to buy right now, although they can be a solid hold for everyone that bought earlier for sure.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":802310922,"gmtCreate":1627717115766,"gmtModify":1633756836268,"author":{"id":"3573448700377086","authorId":"3573448700377086","name":"BengGhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5daa49018a4a9f082bff4985c6a12e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573448700377086","idStr":"3573448700377086"},"htmlText":"Great future!","listText":"Great future!","text":"Great future!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802310922","repostId":1157771608,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":806428271,"gmtCreate":1627690097793,"gmtModify":1631889011399,"author":{"id":"3570187411453325","authorId":"3570187411453325","name":"Alan_Goh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7c3c15ca8d800dc8cfed7fb85ee1b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570187411453325","idStr":"3570187411453325"},"htmlText":"I read so much about Nvidia and use their product on my device. But I&nbsp;have not checked out this stock personally. I think the stock split lower down the barrier to ownership (:","listText":"I read so much about Nvidia and use their product on my device. But I&nbsp;have not checked out this stock personally. I think the stock split lower down the barrier to ownership (:","text":"I read so much about Nvidia and use their product on my device. But I have not checked out this stock personally. I think the stock split lower down the barrier to ownership (:","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806428271","repostId":1157771608,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5394518,"gmtCreate":1627812720661,"gmtModify":1631889011401,"authorId":3580300192386766,"author":{"id":3580300192386766,"idStr":"3580300192386766","authorId":3580300192386766,"name":"ParableTalen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94daa928259bc550d0ee26f23a953bb8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":806428271,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I'm not sure what's stopping Ppl <u>from</u> buying even tho it's&nbsp; priced higher. it's the number of shares bought that affects dividends distributed but the capital invested and returns that mainly matter.","text":"I'm not sure what's stopping Ppl <u>from</u> buying even tho it's&nbsp; priced higher. it's the number of shares bought that affects dividends distributed but the capital invested and returns that mainly matter.","html":"I'm not sure what's stopping Ppl <u>from</u> buying even tho it's&nbsp; priced higher. it's the number of shares bought that affects dividends distributed but the capital invested and returns that mainly matter."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":806573278,"gmtCreate":1627685542494,"gmtModify":1631892980037,"author":{"id":"3556572795482736","authorId":"3556572795482736","name":"Cjwee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3556572795482736","idStr":"3556572795482736"},"htmlText":"Needs to retrace for entry","listText":"Needs to retrace for entry","text":"Needs to retrace for entry","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806573278","repostId":1157771608,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":806546722,"gmtCreate":1627684759766,"gmtModify":1633757232581,"author":{"id":"4089002214432400","authorId":"4089002214432400","name":"Bull_Horn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4089002214432400","idStr":"4089002214432400"},"htmlText":"Great&nbsp;","listText":"Great&nbsp;","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806546722","repostId":1157771608,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":806541740,"gmtCreate":1627684540980,"gmtModify":1633757234817,"author":{"id":"4088505172204490","authorId":"4088505172204490","name":"alexchuahg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b3ba6271dee47317e594a8e26901300","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4088505172204490","idStr":"4088505172204490"},"htmlText":"What price is a good price?&nbsp;&nbsp;it is a million dollar question... It is always market consensus that moves the market... The richer you are, the more convincing in the market... It is the game of the rich...","listText":"What price is a good price?&nbsp;&nbsp;it is a million dollar question... It is always market consensus that moves the market... The richer you are, the more convincing in the market... It is the game of the rich...","text":"What price is a good price? it is a million dollar question... It is always market consensus that moves the market... The richer you are, the more convincing in the market... It is the game of the rich...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806541740","repostId":1157771608,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":806597751,"gmtCreate":1627664652073,"gmtModify":1633757280415,"author":{"id":"3581596246517975","authorId":"3581596246517975","name":"niselle","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581596246517975","idStr":"3581596246517975"},"htmlText":"The stock hasnt gained much after its stock split...","listText":"The stock hasnt gained much after its stock split...","text":"The stock hasnt gained much after its stock split...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806597751","repostId":1157771608,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5382889,"gmtCreate":1627681094370,"gmtModify":1635163882880,"authorId":3553254172092293,"author":{"id":3553254172092293,"idStr":"3553254172092293","authorId":3553254172092293,"name":"DingDang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a0c38ce6f3c2661fa15b7d1f52eeaf","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":806597751,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yeah!!","text":"Yeah!!","html":"Yeah!!"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":119,"commentSize":24,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1157771608"}