Facebook: Good Mix Between Growth Dynamics And Valuation

seekingalpha2021-05-17

Summary The main thing that the last quarter showed is that Facebook shows no quantitative or qualitative slowdown. Different-in-nature multiples indicate an undervaluation of the company. DCF-based ...

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CL777
2021-05-18
CL777
Waiting for $280 to enter
- Sheryl85:
  [Miser]
- CL777:
  [Happy]
- potatochip:
  [Eye][Heart]
- Ddazes:
  [财迷][财迷]
- CL777:
  [Miser]
pangchingwen
2021-05-18
pangchingwen
comment pls
HYYOONG
2021-05-18
HYYOONG
Like and comment facebook!!
- Zfron:
  Ok
- T2C:
  Yes
Slee49
2021-05-18
Slee49
Wow
- 1Robo:
  [强] [强]
Slee49
2021-05-18
Slee49
Wow
andybian
2021-05-18
andybian
Good read
- Roarhigher:
  Yes

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook: Good Mix Between Growth Dynamics And Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-17 23:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429289-facebook-good-mix-between-growth-dynamics-and-valuation><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe main thing that the last quarter showed is that Facebook shows no quantitative or qualitative slowdown.\nDifferent-in-nature multiples indicate an undervaluation of the company.\nDCF-based ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429289-facebook-good-mix-between-growth-dynamics-and-valuation\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429289-facebook-good-mix-between-growth-dynamics-and-valuation","article_id":"1157481397","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157481397","pubTimestamp":1621264584,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nThe main thing that the last quarter showed is that Facebook shows no quantitative or quali","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"Facebook：增长动力与估值的良好结合","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"FB":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nThe main thing that the last quarter showed is that Facebook shows no quantitative or qualitative slowdown.\nDifferent-in-nature multiples indicate an undervaluation of the company.\nDCF-based target price of Facebook's shares is ~$600. And this is not based on an optimistic forecast.\nIn the future, the struggle between freedom of speech and the objective boundaries of this freedom within the moral boundaries of society will intensify. In this context, Facebook's willingness to change is a good tactic.\n\nPhoto by Orbon Alija/E+ via Getty Images\nI present my updated Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) analysis. I have tried to make this analysis as versatile as possible.\n#1 Price vs. Growth\nThe worldwide size of the active audience (MAU) of the largest social network in the first quarter of 2021 perfectly matched the trend that the company entered in 2020. In this sense, it can be stated that Facebook's key growth indicator hasnot yet entered a plateau phase:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nBut it is worth noting that this result was achieved mainly thanks to the \"Asia-Pacific\" segment:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nWhile audience growth in other segments was slightly below its trends:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIn general, it is worth noting again that the coronavirus pandemic has delayed the onset of a plateau phase in Facebook's audience growth. And at the moment there are no signs to conclude that the trend is again becoming logarithmic (i.e., slowing down).\nThe next good news is that the trend of growth in average ad revenue per active account (this indicator reflects the qualitative aspect of the company's growth) has also ceased to be logarithmic and continues to follow the new trend.\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nThis is true for almost all geographic segments of Facebook:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nTaken together, this led to the fact that the result of revenue in the last quarter was significantly better than the trend.This means that, in fact, the company has accelerated both quantitatively and qualitatively.\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nGoing further. There are two models that allow us to judge how balanced Facebook's price is. The first model is based on revenue and the second is based on EPS. Let's start with revenue.\nWhen building the model, I proceed from the assumption that there are three key factors that determine a company's balanced level of capitalization.\nThe first factor is the absolute size of the company's revenue:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nThe second factor is the rate of revenue growth, or, to be more precise, the direct relationship between the rate of growth of the company's revenue and the level of its multiples:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nThe third factor is the U.S. money stock (I used the M2 aggregate). The influence of this factor is obvious. The greater the supply of money, the greater, in principle, the capitalization of the stock market can be.\nSource: fred.stlouisfed.org\nUsing statistical methods, I get the following model:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nAs you can see, the model assumes a significant increase in the company's capitalization in the next four quarters.\nBuilding a model based on EPS also assumes the presence of the listed dependencies:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nAnd in this case, the model looks like this:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nThe latest model does not imply such a significant growth in capitalization as the previous one, but its quality is also worse.Therefore, I am inclined to believe that Facebook retains significant growth potential in the context of this analysis approach.\n#2 Comparative Valuation\nA comparative valuation of Facebook through the Forward P/S to growth (next FY) multiple indicates that the company is undervalued by 13%:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nJudging by the forward P/E (current FY) multiple, Facebook is undervalued by 21%:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nJudging by the EV/IC multiple, Facebook is also undervalued:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nAll the above models until about the end of 2020, on average, indicated a balanced state of the share price of Facebook. But lately,all the models indicate that the company is undervalued relative to the market.\n#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model\nWhen predicting Facebook's revenue for the next ten years, I proceeded from the average expectations of analysts.According to consensus forecasts, in the next decade, the company's annual revenue will exceed $286 billion, demonstrating a CAGR of 12.8%:\nSource: Seeking Alpha Pro\nI expect that Facebook's operating margin for the next 10 years will gradually reduce from 40% to a more adequate 33%. This is due to the fact that the digital advertising market is becoming more competitive. In general, it is better to build the DCF model on the basis of a pessimistic scenario.\nData by YCharts\nHere is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:\nSource: Author\nSome notes on the WACC calculation:\n\nIn order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.64%). The final indicator amounted to 6.36%.\nI used the current value of the one-year beta coefficient (1.12). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.\nTo calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.\n\nHere is the model itself:\n(In high resolution) Source: Author\nThe DCF-based target price of Facebook's shares is ~$588, offering 88% upside. A similar model built in February showed roughly comparable upside potential.\n#4 Behind the Numbers\nAs I have watched Facebook grow over the past few years, I am seeing an increasing force of counter pressure. Of the latter, it is worth recalling last year's attempts to boycott Facebook ads. Or an attempt by the Australian authorities to impose an additional tax on the publication of news. The story of the banning of Trump's account in general has become a kind of beginning of a new era in which media can in fact influence political processes.\nBut on the other hand, I also note Facebook's ability to adapt to these pressures and find reasonable compromises. For example, an advertising boycott forced Facebook to change its policy and remove certain content. Probably in the future, the struggle between freedom of speech and the objective boundaries of this freedom within the moral boundaries of society will intensify. And in my opinion, Facebook's willingness to change is a good tactic.\nFinal thoughts\nAll other things being equal, the most attractive companies for investment are those that: (1) operate in emerging markets, (2) hold leadership positions in these markets, (3) retain the capacity for quantitative and qualitative growth, and (4) have an adequate price.\nIn my opinion, Facebook meets all these criteria. First, the digital advertising market received a powerful growth catalyst during the pandemic, and there will be no pullback here. Second, Facebook has no close competitors of similar size. And third, as the last quarter showed, Facebook shows no slowdown in either audience growth (quantitative growth) or monetization growth (qualitative growth). And, as has been shown, Facebook's current price is attractive enough.\nAnd the last thing. The old man and the baby are somewhat alike. For example, both are bald. But the baby will have hair, and the old man no longer has. This is the similarity and difference between growth problems and aging problems. In my opinion, the problems facing Facebook are more related to growth problems. But, it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":195200321,"gmtCreate":1621295280163,"gmtModify":1634192757283,"author":{"id":"3560241002253187","authorId":"3560241002253187","name":"CL777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aef3dd830373a0427a3447b1b564e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560241002253187","authorIdStr":"3560241002253187"},"htmlText":"Waiting for $280&nbsp;to enter&nbsp;","listText":"Waiting for $280&nbsp;to enter&nbsp;","text":"Waiting for $280 to 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[强]","text":"[强] [强]","html":"[强] 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