美股牛市摇摇欲坠，是即将终结还是暂时回调？

金十数据2021-03-11

美股牛市是即将终结还是暂时回调？投资者最应该关心的是另一个风险…… 近期美股的下跌让人怀疑“美股牛市”已经摇摇欲坠。持续11年之久的美股牛市究竟是要迎来终结，还是仅仅只是短暂回调？针对上述争议，Real Investment Advice的分析师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）对美股市场进行了分析，他的分析基于一个重要的前提： “ 牛市产生于悲观，增长于怀疑，终结于兴奋。” ...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

乌拉乌拉吼
2021-03-12
乌拉乌拉吼
能不能别再发金十数据写的新闻了？？@老虎证券
欲穷千里目
2021-03-12
欲穷千里目
即使你已经嗅到熊市气息，遥望到熊市的阴霾，也不要过早地做空。因为可能还有好长一段路才到熊市的地界。
- 欲穷千里目回复skyteeth:
  金融ETF XLF、基建股ROAD等等
- skyteeth回复欲穷千里目:
  比如呢？
- 欲穷千里目:
  在通胀收益股和基建投资计划受益股方向建一部分仓，应该是今年比较好的选择。
- skyteeth:
  现在就是轻仓观望
美吹1
2021-03-12
美吹1
垃圾想骗我买大a的垃圾票做梦吧
阿三哥
2021-03-12
阿三哥
要点脸吧
蓝白红黑的间条衫
2021-03-12
蓝白红黑的间条衫
要点睑吧！😂
一茗王
2021-03-11
一茗王
[财迷]

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Is it coming to an end or a temporary correction?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9febe16c9ec5c923a276d9e77db74d74","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"美股牛市是即将终结还是暂时回调？投资者最应该关心的是另一个风险……\n\n近期美股的下跌让人怀疑“美股牛市”已经摇摇欲坠。持续11年之久的美股牛市究竟是要迎来终结，还是仅仅只是短暂回调？\n针对上述争议，Real Investment Advice的分析师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）对美股市场进行了分析，他的分析基于一个重要的前提：\n\n “\n 牛市产生于悲观，增长于怀疑，终结于兴奋。”\n\n他表示，尽管美股牛市是否结束存在争议，但几乎没有争议的一点是，美股投资者现在非常“兴奋”。从散户交易者过度买入看涨期权，到追逐市场上做空最多的股票，美股投资者的状态甚至可以用“狂热来形容”。\n从资产配置也可看出美股投资者当前的状态。如下图所示，基金经理的现金配置比例降至3.8%，为2013年3月以来的最低水平。\n\n对股票和大宗商品的配置达到2011年2月以来的最高水平。\n\n许多投资者都在承担着高于正常水平的风险。\n\nRoberts表示，他们从上周开始看到，大部分投资者从动量交易轮换至追求价值股。他认为这种轮换很可能类似于“刚跳出煎锅又跳进了火里”。\n数据显示，目前的小盘股价值比过去20年的任何时候都要高。由于这类股票与长期均值极度偏离，并且被严重高估，最终的价值回归将是残酷的。\n\n同样的情况也出现在罗素2000指数的周线图上，该指数也增加了中型股敞口。由于这些股票的估值甚至远高于最乐观的经济前景，因此出现下跌的风险很高。\n\n经济重新开放和板块轮换的典型代表是能源股。就像小盘价值和罗素2000指数一样，能源股也极度超买，并偏离了长期均值。\n从历史经验来看，当出现价值回归时，情况都非常惨烈，这一次不太可能有所不同。\n中期指标也释放出令人担心的信号。例如资金流动，尽管过去几个月市场“表面上”很活跃，但资金流动继续走弱。\n去年11月初，随着“买入信号”的触发，Roberts建议增加投资组合中的股票敞口。然而，从2月份开始，这一信号发生了逆转，导致价格持续下行。\n虽然市场确实可能在短期内反弹，但“资金流动”的下降，以及“卖出信号”的出现，确实增加了Roberts对市场在未来一个月左右出现更大跌幅的担忧。\n\n他的买入信号存在一个问题，它并不能预测下跌的幅度。例如，2020年9月和10月出现“卖出信号”后，美股出现两次10%的下跌。而去年3月份的信号则导致美股在3周内暴跌35%。\n他表示，鉴于MACD也出现卖出信号，肯定存在更大幅度下跌的风险。但他怀疑，短期内的下跌仍将遇到买家接盘，因为看涨的势头依然存在。然而，如果有什么突发事情“惊动”了市场，仍有可能出现进一步的下跌，因此风险管理仍是关键。\n那么，几周前开始的调整是否已经结束了呢？目前看涨和看跌双方都有充足的理由坚持自己的观点。看涨者认为，另一项刺激法案的通过将给市场和经济带来短期的提振。而看跌者认为，从极度繁荣到估值过高，一切都构成了长期威胁。\n不过，“多头”仍控制着市场。目前，长期的牛市趋势仍未改变。下图是标普500指数的月线图，始于2009年的牛市趋势仍未改变。如果要回落到这一趋势线下方，美股还有近30%的跌幅。\n\n然而，真正的问题是，考虑到相对于长期均值的极端偏离，市场在当前水平上是否仍具有可持续性？\n对于那些喜欢类比的人来说，历史上最具可比性的时期是1998-1999年的市场“融涨”。在那期间，市场从支撑位反弹，然后开始了60%的“融涨”，最终在2000年见顶。目前，标普500指数从去年3月份的低点也上涨了近60%。\n\nRoberts并没有给出一个明确的答案，而是建议投资者继续持有略高于正常水平的现金，并继续做好基本的风险管理控制。因此，在接下来的几周内，他认为投资者需要做好以下三点：\n\n 1、卖出那些根本不起作用的头寸。对于那些既没有在市场上涨时跟着上涨，有没有在市场下跌时提供支撑的头寸，要尽早承认错误，平掉这些头寸，也就是截断亏损。\n\n\n 2、将有利头寸调整至合适的权重，简单来说就是让利润奔跑。\n\n\n 3、保留现金，以便将来有机会以更好的价位进场。\n\n当市场上涨时，“看跌”的担忧往往会被忽视，但这并不意味着它们是无效的。不幸的是，等到“羊群”意识到整体情绪的转变时，往往都已经太晚了。\n他表示，去预测未来的市场走势毫无意义，不管牛市结束与否，投资者应该关注的是市场的变化。而目前投资者面临的最大风险就是“故意对市场变化视而不见”，等开始重视时却为时已晚。要知道，在1999年和2007年，也没有人认为“牛市已死”。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":328163773,"gmtCreate":1615507261292,"gmtModify":1703490084318,"author":{"id":"3472627178943263","authorId":"3472627178943263","name":"乌拉乌拉吼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17caf803d139c2d02bc6453422586925","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3472627178943263","authorIdStr":"3472627178943263"},"htmlText":"能不能别再发金十数据写的新闻了？？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/36992157811200\">@老虎证券</a>","listText":"能不能别再发金十数据写的新闻了？？<a 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