若布雷纳德接任美联储主席，市场将作何反应?

智通财经网2021-11-18

作者：庄礼佳据知情人士透露，美国总统拜登最快将于本周宣布新一任美联储主席的提名人选。拜登可能让现任美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)连任，但若他选择提名美联储理事布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)担任美联储掌舵人，市场会作何反应呢? 短期收益率回落+美元走软，但估计只是暂时的鉴于人们认为，布雷纳德在收紧货币政策的倾向上可能并不比鲍威尔高，市场的初步反应可能是短期收益率回落和...

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CKWAI
2021-11-19
CKWAI
来，回复和点赞，谢谢
- CKWAI:
  谢谢
Sen001
2021-11-19
Sen001
阅
- Sen001:
  [财迷]
Youn7276
2021-11-19
Youn7276
阅
HCBICE
2021-11-18
HCBICE
[微笑]
- zh2021:
  [微笑]
Fattkhong
2021-11-18
Fattkhong
[得意]
- Fattkhong:
  [财迷]

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庄礼佳\n据知情人士透露，美国总统拜登最快将于本周宣布新一任美联储主席的提名人选。拜登可能让现任美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)连任，但若他选择提名美联储理事布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)担任美联储掌舵人，市场会作何反应呢?\n短期收益率回落+美元走软，但估计只是暂时的\n鉴于人们认为，布雷纳德在收紧货币政策的倾向上可能并不比鲍威尔高，市场的初步反应可能是短期收益率回落和...</p>\n\n<a 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Korapaty表示，如果鲍威尔获得提名，市场不太可能会有太大反应，因为他是最有可能的人选。但如果是布雷纳德，情况就不一样了。\n他表示：“由于布雷纳德被认为更加鸽派，我预计收益率水平将上扬且曲线将趋陡。因为市场认为在充分就业问题得到更广泛的解决之前，布雷纳德领导下的美联储可能不会采取行动。”他还补充称，在美国国债方面，2年期和5年期美债收益率可能下跌多达10个基点，而长期国债收益率则会对更高的通胀风险进行定价。\n此前有报道称，拜登在11月4日同每一位候选人分别会面。据悉，每次会议都安排了一个小时，但拜登与布雷纳德的会议“稍微超过规定时间”;部分消息人士表示，拜登同布雷纳德的会面结果好于预期。此消息一出，市场立马作出反应，债券价格上涨。但也有市场观察人士警告称，布雷纳德领导美联储的可能性只是影响美债价格的众多因素之一，美债价格的走势在很大程度上似乎是受头寸动态、地缘政治担忧和其他因素的影响。\n嘉信理财首席固定收益策略师Kathy Jones表示，选择布雷纳德可能会让美国债券和外汇市场推迟美联储加息的预计时间。目前的期货市场显示，2022年美联储将加息两次，每次25个基点;但如果拜登决定更换美联储主席，市场可能至少会取消一次加息的预期。不过，分析人士怀疑市场对布雷纳德获得提名的任何极端反应是否会持续下去，这在一定程度上是因为对布雷纳德的鸽派叙事过于简单化了。\n除了美联储主席一职，拜登可能同时填补其他美联储职位空缺。自特朗普政府以来，有一个美联储理事会的职位一直空缺，另外负责监管的副主席职位在夸尔斯(Randal Quarles)任期于上个月到期后也无人接任;此外，副主席克拉里达(Richard Clarida)的任期将在明年1月届满。有媒体称，如果有人接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席，鲍威尔不太可能继续留在美联储，而他的离开可能会让拜登在明年2月之前最多有四个席位需要填补。\nPraveen Korapaty认为，一系列足够鸽派的候选人足以让市场消化明年加息的任何可能性，并可能会使2年期美债收益率下跌多达20个基点。Kathy Jones则称：“如果我们再选出三位像Neel Kashari(明尼阿波利斯联储主席)那样鸽派的人，将产生相当大的影响。”\n鲍威尔与布雷纳德的观点差异\n在货币政策方面，布雷纳德比鲍威尔更为鸽派。两者都认为通胀在“一段时间”后会减轻。不过在今年夏天，布雷纳德主张“应该再等待一段时间再开始缩减购债规模”。\n此外，双方最明显的分歧出现在金融监管方面。自2018年鲍威尔成为董事会主席以来，布雷纳德在23次投票中投了反对票，主要是为了反对放松2008年金融危机后实施的银行业监管规定。布雷纳德还支持对2008年危机后开发的一种名为反周期资本缓冲的新监管工具进行调整，并在2019年反对美联储不启动该措施的决定。在金融监管方面，布雷纳德是一个从未动摇、不愿妥协的强硬派。\n在其他的政策领域，布雷纳德立场比较鲜明并和鲍威尔存在不同的地方，主要在于气候变化和央行数字货币方面。布雷纳德一直是数字美元的坚定倡导者，同时还对不受监管的私人数字货币的风险提出了警告。气候变化也是布雷纳德特别感兴趣的一个领域。近期她曾发表了一个关于“气候情景分析”的演讲，呼吁各机构开始规划它们可能面临的与气候有关的金融风险，她还讨论了对银行进行气候风险压力测试的可能性。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":876371375,"gmtCreate":1637277946965,"gmtModify":1637277946965,"author":{"id":"3576460381606543","authorId":"3576460381606543","authorIdStr":"3576460381606543","name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","listText":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","text":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876371375","repostId":1156570661,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6635309,"gmtCreate":1637277951843,"gmtModify":1637277951869,"authorId":3576460381606543,"author":{"id":3576460381606543,"authorId":3576460381606543,"name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":876371375,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"谢谢","text":"谢谢","html":"谢谢"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":876327170,"gmtCreate":1637275790771,"gmtModify":1637275790926,"author":{"id":"3584077952141019","authorId":"3584077952141019","authorIdStr":"3584077952141019","name":"Sen001","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af6443dc6111d144d09291a133ffcb94","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876327170","repostId":1156570661,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6634583,"gmtCreate":1637275800570,"gmtModify":1637275800597,"authorId":3584077952141019,"author":{"id":3584077952141019,"authorId":3584077952141019,"name":"Sen001","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af6443dc6111d144d09291a133ffcb94","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":876327170,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[财迷]","text":"[财迷]","html":"[财迷]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":876389146,"gmtCreate":1637270241241,"gmtModify":1637270250718,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876389146","repostId":1156570661,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":876017459,"gmtCreate":1637244242448,"gmtModify":1637244242520,"author":{"id":"3568697814695599","authorId":"3568697814695599","authorIdStr":"3568697814695599","name":"HCBICE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4851c4a27e84de19dd126ece72f2e29","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876017459","repostId":1156570661,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6632961,"gmtCreate":1637254701124,"gmtModify":1637254701223,"authorId":3574387078391491,"author":{"id":3574387078391491,"authorId":3574387078391491,"name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":876017459,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":878478270,"gmtCreate":1637227077594,"gmtModify":1637227077594,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,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