Is Tesla's Stock Forecast Impacted By Rivian R1T Electric Truck?

Seeking Alpha2021-10-08

Summary Tesla does not have a large model range right now and is thus dependent on new entrants such as the Cybertruck - which recently got delayed. Peers are entering the highly attractive electric ...

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Ramesh78
2021-10-08
Ramesh78
Good
ppyy
2021-10-08
ppyy
Ok
- ppyy:
  ok
TeslaLegend
2021-10-08
TeslaLegend
Please like and comment!
Baoxiaolong
2021-10-08
Baoxiaolong
Come down Tesla!!!
- TeslaLegend:
  Nice

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The company's industry position is strong today, but competition is a concern. Rivian Automotive's (RIVN) R1T truck will gain a sizeable presence in the electric truck space, which could hurt the outlook for Tesla's Cybertruck that is still about two years away from mass production. Generally, this space should be large enough to accommodate several players a couple of years from now, but the fact that Tesla has lost its first-mover advantage is naturally not a positive. Overall, Tesla's shares seem pretty expensive for where the company stands today, but depending on market sentiment, shares may still run higher.\nIs Rivian Publicly Traded?\nRivian Automotive is, so far, not publicly traded. The company plans to go public in the near term, however, as Rivian has filed theS-1for its initial public offering a couple of days ago. The company seeks to sell 10% of its shares for around $8 billion, which would value the company at $80 billion. For a company that has just recently started mass-producing its first model, that seems quite expensive, but then again, Rivian is backed by companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Ford(NYSE:F)and has a compelling product and the first-mover advantage in the electric truck market.\nHow Is Rivian Different From Tesla?\nThe two companies are active in the same industry, but there are vast differences between them. The most obvious one is the size and scale of the company -- Tesla is currently producing around 900,000 vehicles a year, while Rivian has just begun producing its first model. Tesla operates several factories across different continents and owns a network of stores and superchargers, while the same is not true for Rivian. Last but not least, Tesla is ambitious to become a major player in energy storage, solar, etc. These ventures are not profitable yet, which limits the current value of these business units, but Tesla is clearly more diversified across the whole \"new energy\" industry compared to Rivian, which is an EV manufacturer solely.\nTesla's way larger size and established operations also lead to another important difference -- Tesla is, unlike Rivian, profitable and able to self-fund its operations and capital expenditures, which makes it less dependent on capital markets. Rivian will, for the foreseeable future, rely on capital markets to fund its future growth.\nWill Tesla Be Impacted By Rivian's R1T Truck?\nTesla has, in the past, grown its production volumes and revenues reliably through two growth drivers: The introduction of new models, and through increasing sales volumes for its existing models. Over the last couple of quarters, almost all of Tesla's sales stemmed from Model 3 and Model Y sales, as X and S sales took a backseat. Future growth will likely be driven by increasing sales of Tesla's 3 and Y models, but the company is also dependent on the introduction of new models to some degree. The Roadster 2 will not be a volume model, but a lot of hope rests on Tesla's Cybertruck. The Cybertruck, which was presented in 2019, will go into production towards the end of 2022, according to CEO Elon Musk. Mass production, however, is still further away, and targeted for the end of 2023, or about two years from now.\nWhen we consider the fact that Tesla has oftentimes missed its own timelines, be it robo-taxis, the Roadster 2, or others, it seems possible that the Cybertruck will be delayed further, and may not be mass-produced before 2024. This would be the case if Tesla misses current estimates by a couple of months, which wouldn't be an overly large surprise. By that time, Rivian will have produced its R1T truck for a couple of years, and others will have entered the attractive electric truck market as well. Ford, for example, is on track to bring its F-150 Lighting to the market soon, as pre-production started in September, and market entry is just a matter of months.\nThe competition from Rivian's R1T and Ford's F-150 could impact Tesla in several ways. First, the fact that the Cybertruck will be late to the market relative to competitors' products will mean that those customers that are very eager to buy an electric truck will go with Rivian or Ford, and not Tesla. Those very eager customers do likely include many that are willing to pay above-average prices, which will allow Ford and Rivian to absorb buying power that is then not available for Tesla when it brings out its Cybertruck two years later.\nOn top of that, the fact that the R1T and the F-150 Lighting will be on the roads well before the Cybertruck is available could hurt Tesla's image as a key electric truck manufacturer. Tesla has the brand advantage in EVs, generally, thanks to its first-mover advantage. But with it being late in the truck space, this first-mover advantage and the increased brand recognition could fall to Rivian and Ford instead of Tesla. As long as Rivian's and Ford's products satisfy customers (which is not guaranteed), truck buyers might build brand loyalty with Rivian and Ford, which could hurt Tesla's ability to sell its Cybertruck and future electric trucks in the long run. Once the opportunity to be a first-mover is missed, others have the advantage, similar to how Tesla has an advantage in selling electric cars today.\nLast but not least, successful launches by Rivian and Ford could also impact Tesla's stock valuation. In case both Rivian and Ford are able to scale up production well and sell large amounts of electric trucks before the Cybertruck is released, investors interested in EV stocks may start to divert away from Tesla. If Rivian is successful in rolling out an electric truck well before Tesla, some current Tesla shareholders may decide to go with Rivian instead, or to split investments between the two companies. This could, in turn, lead to lower demand for Tesla's shares and to some selling pressure, which would be a negative for TSLA stock.\nNone of these is guaranteed, and it is, of course, possible that Tesla beats its own timeline and that the Cybertruck will be made available sooner than expected. It is also possible that manufacturing problems for the R1T or the F-150 Lightning emerge, which would mean that Tesla has more time to catch up. But for now it looks like Rivian and Ford are in the leadership position in the electric truck space, and Tesla being behind its competitors naturally is a negative for the company and its stock. This could hurt demand for the Cybertruck, hurt Tesla's brand image as a technological leader and first-mover, and it could make its shares less compelling relative to those of other EV manufacturers.\nIs Tesla Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nThe electric truck space will be large enough to allow several players to do well a couple of years from now, thus Tesla being behind with its Cybertruck does not mean that the model will not sell well. But it is still important to know whether a company will hold a 30% market share or a 20% market share, for example, five years from now. With Tesla being behind competitors, I do believe that it is not very likely that Tesla will dominate the US electric truck space the same way it dominates the US electric car space today.\nTesla will still see its volumes and revenue grow over the coming years, but growth may not be meaningful enough to justify the current valuation. Tesla is forecasted to generate revenue of $51 billion this year, $67 billion in 2022, and $83 billion in 2023:\nData by YCharts\nThis equates to a growth rate of 31% next year and 24% in 2023. Note that expected revenue growth is less than the 50% average volume growth expected by Tesla, due to the fact that current analyst models predict that Tesla may not be able to deliver on that goal, while average sales price compression could also be a headwind for revenue growth. Overall, revenue growth in the 20%-30% range is still attractive, of course, compared to legacy auto players that do not manage to grow this meaningfully.\nWith 1.12 billion diluted shares, Tesla is currently valued at $875 billion, which equates to a forward sales multiple of 17. Likewise, the sales multiples for 2022 and 2023 stand at 13 and 11, respectively. These are not only very high valuations relative to legacy auto makers, but even relative to some of the other EV players. NIO(NYSE:NIO)and XPeng(NYSE:XPEV), for example, which are growing faster than Tesla, are both valued at 6x 2022's expected revenue today, which makes for a little less than half of Tesla's valuation. Lucid(NASDAQ:LCID), which is a pretty new market entrant, and which should grow faster than Tesla on a relative basis over the coming years, is valued at 10x 2023's expected revenue, versus Tesla's 11x 2023's expected revenue. Overall, I do thus believe that Tesla's shares are too expensive at current prices. This does not at all mean that Tesla is a bad company or that the company will not generate any business growth, but valuations should always be considered. The fact that Tesla is way behind competitors in the electric truck segment is another reason, for me, to believe that Tesla's current valuation is too high -- shares are priced for perfection, and Tesla is far from being perfect, even though the company is solid for sure.\nTesla's overly high valuation versus legacy players with growing EV businesses, such as Ford or Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY), and Tesla's premium valuation versus higher-growth EV peers makes me believe that shares are an avoid at current prices. Locking in gains could be a good idea for those that are long the stock.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":821918432,"gmtCreate":1633684979114,"gmtModify":1633684979290,"author":{"id":"4092954016720550","authorId":"4092954016720550","name":"Ramesh78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0c1ebc7b58a181d8b45be1ce9b944a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821918432","repostId":1154698505,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821931638,"gmtCreate":1633683692254,"gmtModify":1633683692532,"author":{"id":"3553039767902975","authorId":"3553039767902975","name":"ppyy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821931638","repostId":1154698505,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6131876,"gmtCreate":1633683696433,"gmtModify":1634718700405,"authorId":3553039767902975,"author":{"id":3553039767902975,"authorId":3553039767902975,"name":"ppyy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821931638,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821044189,"gmtCreate":1633680328326,"gmtModify":1633680329150,"author":{"id":"3572489627147183","authorId":"3572489627147183","name":"TeslaLegend","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180ad6f06095bcbf2b6594d26c494752","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Please like and comment!","listText":"Please like and comment!","text":"Please like and comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821044189","repostId":1154698505,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821052851,"gmtCreate":1633679078511,"gmtModify":1633679078969,"author":{"id":"3581896632900578","authorId":"3581896632900578","name":"Baoxiaolong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3807f63227b4128c0ee5f1811f39e3eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Come down Tesla!!!","listText":"Come down Tesla!!!","text":"Come down Tesla!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821052851","repostId":1154698505,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6131447,"gmtCreate":1633680334736,"gmtModify":1634718730589,"authorId":3572489627147183,"author":{"id":3572489627147183,"authorId":3572489627147183,"name":"TeslaLegend","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180ad6f06095bcbf2b6594d26c494752","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821052851,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice","text":"Nice","html":"Nice"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":21,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1154698505"}