SoFi: Why Did I Back Up The Truck?

Seeking Alpha2021-09-29

Summary SoFi is one of my largest equity positions. This is supported by a bullish thesis stipulating a 4-year revenue CAGR of 42% and FCF margins of 17%. While ambitious, it's likely to be ...

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精彩评论

claratan
2021-09-30
claratan
Wow 👏 😮 👌
maOQiu
2021-09-30
maOQiu
To the moon
- maOQiu:
  [财迷]
Yuannie
2021-09-30
Yuannie
Nice 🚀
Spaclover
2021-09-29
Spaclover
Go
- Spaclover:
  Go
MoneyCentral
2021-09-29
MoneyCentral
Good stock that’s picking up momentum
- Yuannie:
  👍🏼
Alannjy
2021-09-29
Alannjy
Like
- aloyyyyyy:
  done
- Karxun:
  Done

发表看法

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By creating an integrated platform offering multiple financial products with strong synergies across each one, SoFi is able to tap into multiple total addressable markets. The SoFi strategy is to build a membership experience and a full suite of products that leverages the financial services productivity loop. This is where it builds trust and a relationship in the first product to drive success in the next. This should see the company realize a higher customer lifetime value against lower customer acquisitions costs. It forms a competitive advantage against single product competition and creates the conditions for profits and free cash flow generation.\nThe financial rationale underpinning this thesis is a revenue compound annual growth rate of at least 42% through to fiscal 2025 with adjusted EBITDA margins at 45%. This should see an average quarterly revenue of at least $1 billion from fiscal 2025.\nSoFi Adjusted Net Revenue And Adjusted EBITDA Guidance\nWhile my expected adjusted revenue growth rate comes in higher than SoFi's guidance by $331 million, the adjusted EBITDA should at minimum mirror provided guidance. SoFi's strategy should then see a material portion of this revenue converted into free cash flow. As at the end of its last reported quarter, for every $1 in revenue created, the company was able to convert 12.5 cents into free cash flow. This saw FCF, which is cash from operations minus capital expenditures, come in at $55.80 million for the 6 months ending June 30, 2021.\nThe Winner Takes Most\nCash is king. This is one of the most universal statements in business due to its importance in ascertaining the overall fiscal health of a company. Hence, with SoFi currently holding cash and equivalents of $462 million, the company's expected generation of free cash flow in the years coming places it in a healthy financial position. Further, the potential granting of a new banking charter, the increased operational scale of its strategy, the trajectory of its new financial services, and the retrenchment of pandemic era constraints on its business should see the company rise to realize incremental improvements to its FCF conversion rate. My bullish thesis states that this has a capacity to rise to at least 17 cents on the dollar or a free cash flow margin of 17%.\nThis should likely see free cash flow come in at just under $700 million generated on revenue of $4 billion in fiscal 2025. This leaves the only remaining equation to be what multiple on FCF the market will extend to SoFi at this point in the future. Square (SQ) currently trades on a 74x multiple to its cash flows, hence a 40x multiple to FCF could be stated as somewhat prudent, albeit not entirely conservative. This should see the total market capitalization of the company at roughly $28 billion, a 100% increase from its current $14 billion market cap. Annualized returns at 25% from fiscal 2022 would be far in excess of historical returns from the broader market.\nOf course, the actual end market capitalization could be a widely different figure as it will be dictated by a number of factors that are hard to forecast so far ahead. Firstly, the bank charter is not guaranteed, and a delay beyond this timeline would see actual free cash flow generated come in materially lower. Further, with the pandemic still raging, further interventions by the federal government in SoFi's core lending market cannot be entirely ruled out. Another risk also arises from competition from other established fintech firms looking to mimic SoFi's integrated financial platform strategy as it would create mirror offerings.\nA Blueprint For Growth\nSoFi is scratching the surface of the total American TAM for digital financial services. Hence, the company is likely in the very early innings of its growth. The digitization of finance from the proliferation of new generation fintech firms is transferring value away from the traditional banking incumbents.\nI backed up the truck on SoFi because the company has a clear strategy for value creation being driven by a high-quality management team. The continued positive trajectory of multi-product membership growth is a strong vote of confidence in the ability of the company's strategy to boost LTV and reduce CAC. This should highlight itself in SoFi's financials as a boost to FCF in the years ahead.\nInvesting takes a lot of conviction and is an incredibly solitary experience where your mind becomes the only foundation to lean on when making investment decisions. These decisions should not be taken lightly as they spell the difference between wealth creation or destruction. I have taken a large position in SoFi as I believe it represents the type of company to generate returns in excess of the broader market.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":865311919,"gmtCreate":1632952362169,"gmtModify":1632952362979,"author":{"id":"3573731928321338","authorId":"3573731928321338","name":"claratan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6bbdac9048ff2e4b740f272576e2be","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573731928321338","authorIdStr":"3573731928321338"},"htmlText":"Wow 👏 😮 👌&nbsp;","listText":"Wow 👏 😮 👌&nbsp;","text":"Wow 👏 😮 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stock that’s picking up momentum","listText":"Good stock that’s picking up momentum","text":"Good stock that’s picking up 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