Intel: More Bad Timing

seekingalpha2021-06-01

Summary Intel CEO continues to forecast a chip shortage lasting into 2023 while new fabs won't come online until 2024. The company has benefitted greatly from a chip shortage hurting supplies of ...

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精彩评论

Barumaru
2021-06-01
Barumaru
[Smile]
nananan
2021-06-01
nananan
The only reason why Intel isnt doing worse is due to the chip shortage.When their new fabs are up, they will (hopefully) finally have the new technology to dominate the CPU market again. Before that happens the chip shortage is keeping Intel alive.I would say it is excellent timing
458fd99c
2021-06-01
458fd99c
Amd better
hisashi
2021-06-01
hisashi
Ok
- TohKokMeng79:
  more
- 璇瑤:
  Ok
Phin
2021-06-01
Phin
[Sad]
3aa1d736
2021-06-01
3aa1d736
Like please

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Ironically,Intel (INTC) has plans to build up their foundry business just as they forecast the chip shortage ending. My investment thesis remains negative on the chip giant, as the company remains a step behind the market.\nChip Shortage\nOver the last year or so, Intel has benefited dramatically from a global chip shortage which caused OEMs to purchase all the chips manufactured whether preferred or not. This outcome is best viewed in the quarterly earnings surprise chart showing how the chip giant has increasingly beat analyst estimates despite no growth in the revenue trend.\nSource: SA Earnings Revisions\nThe company has even faced a trend of lower forecasts. A prime example was Q1 results where Intel beat analyst revenue estimates by $621 million, yet the chip company still reported a 6.4% decline in revenues.\nEven worse, Intel is struggling while their peers are reporting surging revenues. Both AMD(AMD) and NVIDIA(NVDA) generated revenue growth in excess of 80% in the last quarter and are stealing $2-3 billion worth of market share from Intel each year.\nData byYCharts\nThe ironic part is that Intel has apparently benefited by AMD and Nvidia not being able to keep up with demand for a while now, but the chip giant has only recently decided to ramp up their foundry business. Oddly, new CEO Pat Gelsinger told a virtual session at the Computex trade show in Taipei that the global chip supply chain could remain under supplied for a couple of years:\n\n But while the industry has taken steps to address near term constraints it could still take a couple of years for the ecosystem to address shortages of foundry capacity, substrates and components.\n\nWhile Intel has plans to address some of the issues limiting chips for U.S. car plants, the company announced a $20 billion plan to build new advanced chip factories in Arizona back in March that will ironically take a couple of years to build. Intel plans for production from the new Arizona fabs to start in 2024 while the CEO is out forecasting the chip shortage to end in 2023 suggesting very bad timing.\nThe numbers just don't jive for Intel to grab new foundry customers such as IBM (IBM) or Qualcomm (QCOM) at the exact time the market no longer has a chip supply shortage. Naturally, chip designers will encourage Intel to build these new factories to provide a 3rd major chip manufacturer to pressure chip production prices lower.\nAt the same time, Intel is benefiting substantially from the chip shortage leading to higher CPU sales and Nvidia expects GPU supply shortages to last until later this year. An end to the chip shortage could allow more supply for AMD and Nvidia to continue taking market share in the premium data center sector, as well as taking share in the lower end chips.\nPrice Stalled\nIntel just guided to 2021 revenues of $72.5 billion for what amounts to a nearly 7% dip in revenue this year. Analysts don't even have the chip giant returning to growth in 2022 with revenue targets at the same levels as guidance for this year.\nOver the last few years, the stock has gone nowhere as Intel has struggled to generate consistent growth. The current scenario has revenues slumping for at least the next 5-6 quarters so the stock performance isn't going to improve under this scenario of weak sales.\nData by YCharts\nThe biggest risk to the investment story is that the new foundry business struggles and Intel over invests in the business at the time that the chip shortage ends. The company is planning to bring online an extra $20 billion in fabs at a time the chip shortage ends while possibly spinning their wheels trying to capture foundry customers using the chip giant to reduce prices.\nInvestors will want to closely watch the expense structure in the next few years as the chip giant ramps up spending in the hopes of grabbing more business with no guarantee such an outcome will occur.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should remain on the sideline as Intel continues to outline a scenario of chip supplies catching up with demand right before the company brings online some expensive new fabs. Investors can't own Intel until the company eliminates the downside risk of continuing to donate market share to sector players like AMD.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":119209418,"gmtCreate":1622546506934,"gmtModify":1634100630656,"author":{"id":"3572061131783760","authorId":"3572061131783760","name":"Barumaru","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572061131783760","idStr":"3572061131783760"},"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119209418","repostId":1153227733,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":119666335,"gmtCreate":1622542981027,"gmtModify":1631885866209,"author":{"id":"3555214777256239","authorId":"3555214777256239","name":"nananan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3555214777256239","idStr":"3555214777256239"},"htmlText":"The only reason why Intel isnt doing worse is due to the chip shortage.When their new fabs are up, they will (hopefully) finally have the new technology to dominate the CPU market again. Before that happens the chip shortage is keeping Intel alive.I would say it is excellent timing","listText":"The only reason why Intel isnt doing worse is due to the chip shortage.When their new fabs are up, they will (hopefully) finally have the new technology to dominate the CPU market again. Before that happens the chip shortage is keeping Intel alive.I would say it is excellent timing","text":"The only reason why Intel isnt doing worse is due to the chip shortage.When their new fabs are up, they will (hopefully) finally have the new technology to dominate the CPU market again. Before that happens the chip shortage is keeping Intel alive.I would say it is excellent timing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119666335","repostId":1153227733,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":119608244,"gmtCreate":1622538989288,"gmtModify":1634100690796,"author":{"id":"3527303552443900","authorId":"3527303552443900","name":"458fd99c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527303552443900","idStr":"3527303552443900"},"htmlText":"Amd&nbsp;better","listText":"Amd&nbsp;better","text":"Amd better","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119608244","repostId":1153227733,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":119601314,"gmtCreate":1622538856838,"gmtModify":1634100691388,"author":{"id":"3569379942872386","authorId":"3569379942872386","name":"hisashi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29366171e4326ad7326206178789c95f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569379942872386","idStr":"3569379942872386"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119601314","repostId":1153227733,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4547385,"gmtCreate":1622642083813,"gmtModify":1635391179996,"authorId":3574312720176101,"author":{"id":3574312720176101,"idStr":"3574312720176101","authorId":3574312720176101,"name":"TohKokMeng79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09aad76a158a443465cacafe0bebb97","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":119601314,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>more</u>","text":"<u>more</u>","html":"<u>more</u>"},{"id":4548399,"gmtCreate":1622645776942,"gmtModify":1635391109626,"authorId":3576793170997774,"author":{"id":3576793170997774,"idStr":"3576793170997774","authorId":3576793170997774,"name":"璇瑤","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6835feab4172932a5b89786a7d2beb9a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":119601314,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Ok</u>","text":"<u>Ok</u>","html":"<u>Ok</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":119603541,"gmtCreate":1622538818583,"gmtModify":1634100691755,"author":{"id":"3582273740838899","authorId":"3582273740838899","name":"Phin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582273740838899","idStr":"3582273740838899"},"htmlText":"[Sad]&nbsp;","listText":"[Sad]&nbsp;","text":"[Sad]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119603541","repostId":1153227733,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":119600942,"gmtCreate":1622538624786,"gmtModify":1634100693822,"author":{"id":"3578804294063553","authorId":"3578804294063553","name":"3aa1d736","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578804294063553","idStr":"3578804294063553"},"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119600942","repostId":1153227733,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":21,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1153227733"}