The November Jobs Report Was Muddled. The Fed’s Plans Are Clear.

Barrons2021-12-06

On the surface, the November jobs report looked awful. But the details offer tentative signs that the U.S. labor shortage may be starting to thaw. The Department of Labor conducts two surveys each ...

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2021-12-06
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But the details offer tentative signs that the U.S. labor shortage may be starting to thaw.\nThe Department of Labor conducts two surveys each ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-federal-reserve-51638579531?mod=RTA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1601382232898","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The November Jobs Report Was Muddled. 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The Fed’s Plans Are Clear.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-06 16:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-federal-reserve-51638579531?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>On the surface, the November jobs report looked awful. But the details offer tentative signs that the U.S. labor shortage may be starting to thaw.\nThe Department of Labor conducts two surveys each ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-federal-reserve-51638579531?mod=RTA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-federal-reserve-51638579531?mod=RTA","article_id":"1153108789","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153108789","pubTimestamp":1638777863,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1601382232898","name":"Barrons"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"On the surface, the November jobs report looked awful. But the details offer tentative signs that th","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"barrons.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"11月份的就业报告混乱不堪。美联储的计划很明确。","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"On the surface, the November jobs report looked awful. But the details offer tentative signs that the U.S. labor shortage may be starting to thaw.\nThe Department of Labor conducts two surveys each month that together constitute its employment situation report. The establishment survey of businesses showed a paltry payrolls increase of 210,000 in November, the lowest monthly growth all year and far short of economists’ expectations. The household survey, however, offered a counter narrative. Payrolls, according to that survey, rose 1.1 million in November as some people finally started to re-enter the workforce.\nWhat are investors to make of the mixed messages? Let’s start with squaring the survey discrepancy. Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, says the big gap in hiring, taken at face value, suggests that over one million individuals shifted from employment to self-employment. The household survey has historically been more volatile and thus less reliable than its establishment sibling. But if people are shifting to self-employment, as anecdotal evidence suggests, the household survey may be painting a more accurate picture of the labor market, Markowska says.\nSticking with the household survey, then, means acknowledging that the job market is even tighter than it looks. More people are working than it would appear from a record number of job openings and an historically high quits rate. Markowska notes that the strength in household payrolls pushed the unemployment rate down to 4.2% in November—just barely above what the Federal Reserve estimates as the natural rate of unemployment, or the unemployment rate at which inflation remains stable.\nMore importantly, about 600,000 people returned to the labor force in November. To be counted, a person must either be working or actively seeking employment. The surprise increase in the labor-force participation rate, to 61.8% from the prior month’s 61.6%, represents a new postpandemic high. It marks a pickup that had been elusive for months, and may portend more hiring.\nStill, that welcome rise in participation wasn’t enough to meaningfully take the heat off wages. Average hourly earnings cooled a bit in November from October, rising at a 0.3% pace, but held at a hot 4.8% year-over-year rate. Given that the economy is making rapid progress toward full employment, the odds of wage pressures receding more meaningfully aren’t great, says Markowska. While better pay for workers isn’t a bad thing, economists warn that fast-rising wages can spur the type of wage-price spiral that defined the 1970s and makes inflation harder to fight.\nAn under-the-radar metric underpins wage concerns. As Renaissance Macro Research points out, an extension in the workweek during November, to 34.8 hours, means that growth in aggregate weekly payrolls was stronger in November versus October. That series, a proxy for labor income, is up 11.8% annualized over the past three months and puts pressure on the Fed, researchers there say.\nAdd it all up and the Fed is on track to speed up the pace of reductions to its emergency bond-buying program. In recent testimony, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that officials would debate doing so, and there is a growing cadre of Fed officials publicly expressing a desire to wrap up the program sooner than planned. Ask almost any economists on Wall Street and they will tell you the latest jobs report all but guarantees the Fed will decide to accelerate its tapering to $30 billion from $15 billion a month, meaning the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases would be completely wound down by March.\nWhat comes next—namely, a liftoff in rock-bottom interest rates—is more important, however, and less certain. Powell’s diminished dovishness came at a particularly uncomfortable time. The Omicron variant of the coronavirus has markets worried about slower growth, and Powell’s framing of the new variant as a supply, or inflation, threat instead of a demand, or growth, threat is perplexing, says Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.\nInvestors are right to wonder if the long-standing “Fed put,” or their confidence that the Fed has the market’s back, is fading. For now, federal-funds futures are still signaling liftoff in June. That’s back to where the futures stood before the revelation of Omicron rocked markets and briefly pushed out rate expectations. Daco says the risk that the Fed lifts as early as March is rising, although he expects the first hike to come in September. After Friday’s data, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, pushed up his liftoff forecast to May, with further hikes in September and December.\nA lot can happen between now and March, or May, so it’s too soon to say the Fed put is kaput. Some economists note that Powell’s hawkish pivot might have come just as inflation is peaking. Consider, for example, the 20% drop in crude-oil and gasoline prices in the past month.\nMonetary policy seems about to shift, after a long time of holding steady with rates on the floor, because even though inflation might be topping out, it is already too high. But it’s a good time to remember that everything is relative, including Fed officials who sound hawkish. The November jobs report might have sealed the deal on faster tapering, but it will take more to get the Fed to lift rates before the summer.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":608482809,"gmtCreate":1638778507163,"gmtModify":1638778965583,"author":{"id":"4089071665449880","authorId":"4089071665449880","name":"gstrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc1dc8a3139d4e25f88ab3d2add3f335","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089071665449880","authorIdStr":"4089071665449880"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608482809","repostId":1153108789,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":18,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1153108789"}