美股过山车行情屡屡上演，恐慌指数高烧不退资金短兵相接

第一财经2021-12-05

在疫情、通胀和美联储等多重因素影响下，衍生品市场上对波动性方向的激烈博弈正在上演。自美国感恩节假期以来，美股走势可谓跌宕起伏，有关奥密克戎毒株的消息甚至导演了三大指数日内振幅近3%的行情。与此同时，美联储主席鲍威尔有关通胀的最新表态和加速缩减资产购买计划的暗示，为下一步政策收紧埋下了伏笔。在疫情、通胀和美联储等多重因素影响下，衡量美股波动性的芝商所恐慌指数（VIX）重回30关口上方并剑指年内...

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AdelineLing
2021-12-05
AdelineLing
留意
- cy8:
  yee
- E1:
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- Paulyang:
  同意
瀚妈
2021-12-05
瀚妈
是
- TradeBuddy88:
  [捂脸]

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The funds are hand-to-hand","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f64b282b3b1db48b89b67ee76f0490e","symbols_score_info":{"SVXY":0.9,"TVIX":0.9,"UVXY":0.9,"VIXmain":0.9,"VIXY":0.9,"VXX":0.9},"content_text":"在疫情、通胀和美联储等多重因素影响下，衍生品市场上对波动性方向的激烈博弈正在上演。\n\n自美国感恩节假期以来，美股走势可谓跌宕起伏，有关奥密克戎毒株的消息甚至导演了三大指数日内振幅近3%的行情。与此同时，美联储主席鲍威尔有关通胀的最新表态和加速缩减资产购买计划的暗示，为下一步政策收紧埋下了伏笔。在疫情、通胀和美联储等多重因素影响下，衡量美股波动性的芝商所恐慌指数（VIX）重回30关口上方并剑指年内高点，未来一周波动风险依然较高。\n\n与美联储内部对复苏的信心有所不同，资本市场似乎对中长期经济前景持谨慎观点（来源：新华社）\n疫情或难阻美联储加速减码\n过去一周由奥密克戎毒株引发的新增确诊病例在多国被发现，引起了全球的高度重视。鲍威尔在出席国会季度听证会时谈到了变异毒株对经济的威胁，认为这可能会降低人们主动寻找工作的意愿，减缓劳动力市场的发展，加剧供应链中断。\n第一财经记者注意到，四季度以来，美国经济复苏态势明显，多家机构上调GDP增速预期。虽然本土疫情反复，但数据显示在制造业保持平稳扩张的同时，服务业随着假日季的来临和企业需求旺盛加速回暖，ISM非制造业指数在刚过去的11月创下历史新高，这些有利因素也给了美联储打压通胀的空间和可能。\n自近两周前获得美国总统拜登的连任提名后，鲍威尔针对通胀的表态便越发强硬。在多位美联储官员先后就明年缩减资产购买计划发表鹰派立场后，美联储主席也对此作出了最新表态，称在经济强劲和通胀压力很高的情况下，考虑加快减码周期是合适的，这也让两周后的议息会议看点十足。\n牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，从最新公布的ISM服务业指数等数据看，在新毒株产生影响前，相关行业的复苏基础稳固。商业活动势头良好，新订单在需求推动下增长强劲，不过从交付量和价格指数可以看出，供应链瓶颈的问题依然存在。加快退出资产购买计划的态度，说明美联储承认通胀的顽固性，同时认可经济现状。\n与美联储内部对复苏的信心有所不同，美债市场似乎对中长期经济前景持谨慎观点。相对于与利率密切相关的短期国债收益率快速上升，长期美债利率未能跟上步伐，2年期和10年期利率利差降至年内新低。与此同时，5年期和30年期国债收益率之间的利差则刷新了去年3月以来低点。收益率曲线趋平，显示虽然投资者对美联储政策转向提速有所预期，但似乎中期前景并不明朗。\n就业也是美联储接下来需要解决的主要问题。11月非农新增就业岗位数量远不及预期，劳动力短缺的问题可能成为未来拖累经济的重大风险，而近期本土反弹的疫情形势也让年末劳动力回归充满不确定性。不过这似乎不足以阻止美联储在减码问题上的决心。施瓦茨向第一财经记者分析道，虽然最新就业数据喜忧参半，与新增岗位相比，失业率下降和劳动参与率上升的趋势值得肯定，这是劳动力市场回暖的重要风向标，也是控制薪资-通胀螺旋的“安全阀”。他认为，美联储已经为扩大减码规模做好了准备。\n在加息问题上，施瓦茨认为，如果美联储能在明年一季度结束资产购买，那么就可以在二季度启动首轮加息的问题上保持灵活性。当然相对于减码，加息的话题似乎还很遥远，现在的政策重点依然是潜在的疫情发展路径，经济下行风险需要引起足够重视。他预计，如果奥密克戎毒株的影响有限，美国就业市场有望在2022年下半年实现完全就业，可以为美联储上调基准利率扫除最后障碍。\n市场波动警报或未解除\n在11月上旬联袂创出历史新高后，美国三大股指似乎失去了上攻的动力。受疫情影响，道指已经连跌四周，区间跌幅近2000点，受益于复苏的航空、旅游、邮轮等周期板块持续承压。与此同时，与经济走势密切相关的中小盘罗素2000指数自高位回落超过10%，进入回调区间。\n在美联储提速减码的威胁下，本应受到疫情提振的科技成长股也未能幸免。纳指近两周下跌近8%，其中跟踪科技巨头的FANG+指数相对于11月4日的高点已经下跌了9.9%，距离回调仅一步之遥，包括奈飞、英伟达、Facebook以及亚马逊等多只个股近期表现不佳。\n“过去一周几乎每天都有大幅波动。”瑞银私人财富管理公司（UBS Private Wealth Management）董事总经理曼蒂奥尼针对近期科技股走势分析道，“美联储的政策正处于拐点， 投资者正在仔细研究美联储对非农报告的看法，如果美联储在减码或加息问题上提速，对利率敏感的成长股更容易受到冲击。”\n虽然鲍威尔试图给有关加快缩减资产购买的表态降温，称不认为减码会扰乱金融市场，投资者似乎依然在疫情和货币政策的夹击下受到了惊吓。上周五芝商所恐慌指数（VIX）盘中一度突破35关口，距离今年1月27日的高位仅一步之遥。Swissquote高级分析师奥兹卡德斯卡娅（Ipek Ozkardeskaya）在给客户的报告中表示，市场的波动性风险仍然很高。抛售的根本原因不仅是奥密克戎毒株，还由于美联储为解决高通胀问题而收缩流动性的担忧，因此短期风险资产面临较大压力。\n\n恐慌指数VIX期权交易火热，押注看涨资金占据优势\n衍生品市场多空博弈进入白热化。嘉信理财给第一财经记者提供的数据显示，美股高位震荡下期权交易量水涨船高，刚过去的11月日均成交量达到4520万份，远高于10月的3930万份并创下历史新高。随着近期市场波动加剧，资金在恐慌指数上激烈交锋，嘉信理财交易和衍生品董事总经理弗雷德里克（Randy 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