从100万血亏至不到1万！多数美股散户注定以悲剧收场？

腾讯美股2020-07-10

“他们使一切变得极为便利，哪怕对股票一无所知的人也能够轻松上手。于是你去了他们的平台，等着你的命运就是赔钱。”这就是近日，一位名叫多巴茨（Richard Dobatse）的美股散户投资者对《纽约时报》撰稿人这样总结了自己的“多么痛的领悟”。多巴茨所指的“他们”，当然就是当下高度活跃的美股新日间交易散户的聚集地Robinhood平台。他是被这一app各种花狸狐哨的设定吸引过去的，这些手段使得...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

张刘小虎
2020-07-13
张刘小虎
想在老虎证券交易的散户是不是属于这种日间交易客户呢？
杨军虎__
2020-07-11
杨军虎__
我40w本金现在不到20w了没事不要玩期权没事不要玩期权没事不要玩期权
- 真的英雄:
  正常，我以前最多时亏本金将近90%，玩的是中概和毛票，还有3倍能源etf[开心]
zhaosu
2020-07-11
zhaosu
什么破文章，就一个20岁不成熟的失败就说散户失败，怎么不说那些挣了百万的
- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
sstone
2020-07-11
sstone
我就是个标准的日间交易者
夜空下的微笑
2020-07-11
夜空下的微笑
不能太急了。心里有个预期，每月十个点的收益就可以了，一口是成不了胖子的！道理都懂，操作都废
- 夜空下的微笑:
  😀
- 咖喱酱:
  按照你这个收益。你要达到巴菲特的高度只需要他的六分之一的时间。[捂脸]
进食的巨人
2020-07-11
进食的巨人
这样容易当韭菜

发表看法

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Smith）就坦言，也许现在由于美股近几个月的戏剧性大涨行情，这些散户当中颇有不少人赚了些钱，但是长期来看，日间交易群体赚钱其实是例外，赔钱才是必然。他在《纽约时报》报道中对Robinhood的评价是：“他们是在怂恿自行车都搞不掂的人去骑摩托车。长期而言，这种行为其实就等于试图从赌场手中抢钱。”\n赌客想要击败赌场，当然几乎是不可能，但是日间交易者要赚钱，真的就这么难么？事实胜于雄辩，投资社区网站Tradeciety曾经发布过一组有趣的统计结果。\n\n\n 80%的日间交易者都坚持不了两年。\n平均而言，全部散户的表现每年落后大盘1.5%，而日间交易散户落后6.5%。\n平均而言，全部日间交易者当中每年只有平均1.6%能够赚钱。\n越是没钱的散户，投入日间交易的资金相对于他们的总收入的占比越高。其中，那些穷困的、年轻的、居住于城市的少数族裔尤其如此。\n日间交易者倾向于卖掉上涨的股票，而不肯放弃下跌的。\n中国台湾2002年4月引入乐透彩票后，当地日间交易量骤降大约25%。\n日间交易者再度购入自己曾经赚钱的股票的概率要远大于自己曾经赔钱的股票。\n日间交易者不喜欢学习交易技巧。\n在扣除各种交易成本后，日间交易者的亏损还会进一步增大。\n日间交易者往往倾向于增持自己所在行业的股票。\n\n\n显然，关于日间交易散户的现实确实不怎么美好。那么，为何大多数日间交易散户都只能是悲剧收场呢？理财入门网站THE ROBUST TRADER列出了十大原因。\n1. 没有策略和规划\n要做交易，就必须有一个长期愿景，以及达成愿景的可靠规划，在不同的策略之间不停切换，乃至于全凭心血来潮做决定，注定是不会有好果子吃的。\n2. 没有自己的优势\n\n这是日间交易者遭遇失败的最重大原因之一。要在市场上获得成功，必须保证自己至少在某方面拥有一定优势，而大多数散户都做不到这一点。\n3. 全无纪律\n没有优势就已经很糟糕了，再没有坚持既定策略的纪律，后果就只能是雪上加霜。要克制住自己的各种情绪，自己的“直觉”对市场的判断，一切以冰冷的策略为根据，其实难度极高。\n4. 下注过大\n\n哪怕投资者有了策略、优势和纪律，也没有谁能够保证每次交易都会成功，而交易生涯的可持续性很大程度上就要看每次交易的头寸规模。如果每次投入的资金都相当于全部本钱的2%，则连续失败十次也就损失20%，而如果每次都投入10%，连续失败十次就意味着血本无归。不要只想着买得多赚得多，也要想想赔了怎么办。\n5. 盲目自大\n不管是在生活还是在交易当中，人们总是可能会将某种其实完全是运气造成的结果当成自己能力的体现，由此越走越远。尤其是那些依靠“直觉”的散户，在根本没有什么真正能力的情况下，靠着概率也可能有一些成功的交易，而因此变得胆子越来越大，直到万劫不复。\n6. 没有应变预案\n\n许多新玩家都相信，自己只要找到一种对的策略，就可以一直赚钱下去了，然而事实就是，没有任何一种策略是会永远有效的。市场总是会变的，当既有的策略已经与市场脱节，你该用什么新策略来代替？你又如何判断更换策略的时间节点？\n7. 不做交易记录\n在日间交易所必需的功课当中，做交易记录是非常重要的一项。每一笔交易的时间、对象、金额、信号、预设入场点或退场点、止损手段、总体盈亏等都应该记录下来，这样可以帮助你总结和成长。\n8. 预期不切实际\n\n今日的网络世界充斥着各种似是而非的内容，经常会有一些所谓专家宣称，达成每年三位数，乃至四位数的回报都是轻而易举的事情，让人很容易受到蛊惑。然而实际上，这样的回报在短期内也只有少数人能够达到，而长期来看，根本就是子虚乌有。\n9. 处理不好心理压力\n许多人都从一开始就将日间交易看成了一个轻松赚钱的游戏，然而现实其实要冷酷得多，一路上，交易者会遇到各种各样的心理压力，以及各种各样的冲动。比如，日间交易散户经常会在心理因素驱使下犯下这些错误：不肯按照策略发出的信号做交易；忍不住去做策略没有发出信号的交易；死活不肯割肉，幻想再过一些时间，下跌的股票就能涨回来；过早卖掉上涨的股票以求心安。\n10. 不肯下苦功夫\n\n世界上从来就没有轻松赚钱的方法，何况是在股市当中和那么多其他人，那么多其他资金去博弈。日间交易者必须找到和不断验证可靠的策略，不断紧盯策略发出的信号，不断关注市场的变化……如果不能每天都在电脑前投入几个小时，拿这至少当一份兼职工作来干，就不要走这条路。\n遗憾的是，类似这样的建议，在理财顾问和金融教育专家那里早已经是老生常谈，但是日间交易散户群体依然前仆后继，从来不曾从人们视野当中消失。尤其是当下疫情造就的宅家新世代，哪怕麦基尔（Burton Malkiel）、马克斯（Howard Marks）、库珀曼（Leon Cooperman）等等名震业界的大佬一再发出警告，他们也只是一笑置之——毕竟他们的最大特点之一，就是蔑视一切既有权威，连巴菲特（Warren 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