高盛：关注周期性板块，美债波动远未到威胁美股的程度

第一财经2021-03-02

随着抛售潮暂时结束，周一美债市场企稳，收益率整体下行，带动过去一周承压的美股全线反弹。全球央行正试图控制由国债上涨带来的借贷成本上升风险，这可能会抵消刺激政策为提振经济所付出的努力。澳大利亚联储1日开始增加了对长期国债的购买，该国10年期国债收益率应声回落，而欧洲央行（ECB）执委维勒罗伊（franois Villeroy de Galhau）表示，近期一些国债收益率的上涨是没有根据的，欧洲央行...

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凝露
2021-03-02
凝露
跟着高聖反着买
求金
2021-03-02
求金
高盛的话不能全信

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href=https://www.yicai.com/news/100963833.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着抛售潮暂时结束，周一美债市场企稳，收益率整体下行，带动过去一周承压的美股全线反弹。\n全球央行正试图控制由国债上涨带来的借贷成本上升风险，这可能会抵消刺激政策为提振经济所付出的努力。澳大利亚联储1日开始增加了对长期国债的购买，该国10年期国债收益率应声回落，而欧洲央行（ECB）执委维勒罗伊（franois Villeroy de Galhau）表示，近期一些国债收益率的上涨是没有根据的，欧洲央行...</p>\n\n<a 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Kostin）写道，投资者会问，美债利率水平是否会对股票估值产生巨大冲击，答案是否定的。\n目前标普500指数的市盈率为22倍，是1976年以来整体水平的99分位，仅次于互联网泡沫时期，这意味着估值可能是一个威胁，尤其是在利率预期上升的环境下。科斯丁指出，投资者应将这一趋势更多地视为一种转变，而不是一种危险。如果将标准普尔500指数除以收益率与10年期收益率进行比较，可以看出估值仅处于中位区间，约为42%。在这种环境下，投资者应该认识到，不同行业将从中受益。\n周期性板块将表现抢眼\n高盛认为，暂时盈利较弱但增长强劲的周期性股票未来将战胜疫情大流行反弹期间表现良好的防御性（成长性）股票。历史上看，当利率上升时，能源和工业等领域往往表现更好。“这毫不奇怪，周期性股票与名义利率和实际利率都成正相关，相比之下，未盈利高成长股票与利率呈负相关，因为这些公司估值完全取决于未来的增长前景。”报告称。\n科斯丁称，在10年期美债收益率达到2.1%之前，利率压力不会对股市构成重大威胁。他认为，目前，美债收益率随经济增长而上升的环境与高盛此前给出的2021年标普500指数的目标点位4300点一致。“展望未来，投资者必须在前景看好的企业的吸引力与利率进一步上升和近期轮换持续的风险之间取得平衡。”科斯丁称，“尽管成长股在长期看来可能仍是最具吸引力的投资，但如果经济加速和通胀继续推高美债收益率，这些股票短期内的表现将逊于周期性较强的公司。”\n与高盛相比，美国银行相对谨慎，该行首席策略师苏布拉马尼安（Savita Subramanian）认为，如果10年期美债的收益率突破1.75%，投资者很有可能回归传统的固定收益资产，造成股市大幅波动。历史表明，这是“资产配置者开始回归债券的临界点”。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":362763257,"gmtCreate":1614669655179,"gmtModify":1703479619569,"author":{"id":"3573816577053730","authorId":"3573816577053730","name":"凝露","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f01d45b322b73ed1e29be96c8ae23f3","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"跟着高聖反着买&nbsp;","listText":"跟着高聖反着买&nbsp;","text":"跟着高聖反着买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362763257","repostId":1151548530,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":362560394,"gmtCreate":1614649862718,"gmtModify":1703479328432,"author":{"id":"3573168884997306","authorId":"3573168884997306","name":"求金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869d585d3a198da2a97a46b697e6c522","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"高盛的话不能全信","listText":"高盛的话不能全信","text":"高盛的话不能全信","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362560394","repostId":1151548530,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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