杨德龙：从五年尺度看，A股和港股均处于历史大底位置

格隆汇2022-05-13

作者：杨德龙前海开源基金首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事5月12日周四，沪深两市维持震荡走势。在经历一天放量大涨之后，市场进入到震荡整理状态，这说明市场现在在完成探底之后进入到震荡反弹阶段，并非连续大涨，而是维持了震荡上行，这是一个非常健康的走势；另一方面说明了市场做多的热情正在逐步被激发，市场逐步从左侧转向右侧，而市场信心可能会随着市场回暖而逐步回升。5月11日A股三大股指均大幅上涨，...

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精彩评论

Julio堂
2022-05-14
Julio堂
A股哪来的多空拉锯，我开了做空都融不到券
老山古
2022-05-13
老山古
少年底，幼儿底，婴儿底，胎盘底，都喊遍了[龇牙]，接下来什么底啊[龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
- 浴缸潜水员:
  矿洞底
- 叶汀:
  🍁
- 小雄zZZ:
  底部不是喊出来的，是[美金]砸出来，割肉割[梭哈]出来的，当大佬们夺路而逃的时候，就是底部了[财迷]
- 小虎xh:
  好
- 笑的天使:
  哈哈
老山古
2022-05-13
老山古
20年前还是3000点[龇牙] ，应该是20年来看[捂脸] [捂脸]
方大象
2022-05-13
方大象
好家伙
Woshidui
2022-05-13
Woshidui
以后可以10年，20年看，人不流通，经济哪来的活力，现在出行人数和40年前有的比。股票也应该看30.40年前
- T4580569:
  good
- 棒棒的杨杨:
  阅
猛逃
2022-05-13
猛逃
没有最低，只有更低[吃瓜]

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history","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e654858aef41a1486ceda1c10eef498d","symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9},"content_text":"作者：杨德龙 前海开源基金首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事5月12日周四，沪深两市维持震荡走势。在经历一天放量大涨之后，市场进入到震荡整理状态，这说明市场现在在完成探底之后进入到震荡反弹阶段，并非连续大涨，而是维持了震荡上行，这是一个非常健康的走势；另一方面说明了市场做多的热情正在逐步被激发，市场逐步从左侧转向右侧，而市场信心可能会随着市场回暖而逐步回升。5月11日A股三大股指均大幅上涨，成交金额再度回到万亿以上，最终成交了1.07万亿，较上一个交易日增加两千三百多亿。这意味着很多聪明的资金已经开始选择左侧投资，在底部进行布局，我一直给大家强调做投资要坚持长期主义。如果只看短期，我们无法预期短期市场的波动，也不知道明天市场是涨还是跌。但长期来看这不重要，虽然在过去十余年的时间里，上证指数一直围绕3000点上下波动，但是有两点是确定的：第一，在3000点之上的时间运行的时间远远长于在3000点之下运行的时间；第二，在3000点之上的空间也远远大于在3000点之下下跌的空间。以此为参考，我们做投资就变得相对简单了，因为3000点之下就可能是历史大底，所以我们在3000点之下或者3000点附近去建仓优质股票或者优质基金，很可能从中长期可以获得相对较好的回报。市场底部特征已经是非常明显，比方说我经常给大家介绍的一个指标就是新基金的发行量，新基金发行量代表了投资者入场的意愿。当市场出现泡沫的时候，往往也是投资者排队买基金的时候，爆款基金频频出现，甚至需要比例配售才能买到新基金，这时候可能就是市场的一个高点，我们就需要减仓；相反当市场的情绪比较低迷，投资者入场意愿进入到冰点的时候，就会出现新基金发行失败。新基金发行最低需要募集两个亿才能够成立，而发行失败也意味着新基金发行期的一两个月里募集的金额达不到两个亿最低成立的标准，这说明投资者的情绪到达冰点，而市场也可能处于底部。据统计，今年以来已经有十几只新基金宣布发行失败。在五一之前，我建议大家珍惜3000点之下建仓优质股票或者优质基金的时机，现在策略已经开始奏效。五一之后市场开始逐步收复失地，上证指数重回3000点之上。据统计，上证指数已经50余次跌破3000点又站上3000点，多空拉锯。但是最终多头战胜空头的可能性更大，因为市场在3000点之上运行的时间远远超过在3000点之下，这是有历史数据可以佐证，并且不需要详细统计，肉眼就可以看到的。从政策面来看，最近政策面的利好频频出现，包括中央政治局会议，金融委会议、国常会等等重磅级的会议都释放出积极的信号，采取各种措施来稳定经济增长，统筹好疫情防控与社会经济发展关系，既要防疫情，又要保增长、稳就业，因此市场担忧的一些因素逐步减少。5月11日，李总理主持召开国务院常务会议，要求财政、货币政策以就业优先为导向，稳住经济大盘，部署进一步盘活存量资产，拓宽社会投资渠道，扩大有效投资，决定阶段性免除经济困难高校毕业生国家助学贷款利率并允许延期还本。针对这两年疫情期间出现的失业率上升的局面，国常会提出：财政、货币政策要以就业优先为导向，退减税、缓缴社保费、降低融资成本等，都着力指向稳市场主体、稳岗位、稳就业，以保基本民生、稳增长、促消费。在做好疫情防控的同时进一步畅通物流，特别是重点地区物流，维护产业链供应链稳定，在前期支持基础上再向中央发电企业拨付500亿元可再生能源补贴，通过国有资本经营预算注资100亿元，支持煤电企业纾困和多发电，安全有序地释放先进煤炭产能，绝不允许出现拉闸限电，保障工业生产的安全。对当前有困难的企业，给予住房公积金政策支持，年底前申请即可缓缴，预计减缓企业负担九百多亿元。抓紧研究养老保险费缓缴政策扩大范围、延长期限的措施，指导地方对中小微企业、个体工商户水电气等费用予以补贴。通过发行不动产投资信托基金等方式盘活基础设施的存量资产，也就是通过发行REITs的方式来募集资金，加大基建投资的力度。这一系列的措施的目的很明显，就是要稳定经济增长基本盘，保民生、保就业，这大大减轻投资者的担忧，从而提振投资者的信心。海外市场方面，美股在近期出现了持续调整，主要是受到美国通胀高企，货币政策不断收紧的影响。美国劳工部11日公布的数据显示，4月美国CPI环比上涨0.3%，当月CPI同比增幅8.3%，涨幅较3月收窄0.2百分点，终结了自去年8月以来的连续上涨趋势。但是美国4月CPI的涨幅仍然高于市场预期，这对市场的信心是一个沉重的打击，推动十年期美国国债收益率回升到3%以上。十年期美国国债的收益率被视为无风险利率，也就是全球一切资产定价的一个基准利率。而十年期美国国债收益率回升到3%以上，这对于全球资产的定价都形成负面的影响。美国通胀虽然有所见顶，但是股市仍然在下跌的过程中。这主要还是投资者担心美联储货币政策的收紧可能会保持比较快的节奏，从3月份开始美联储开启加息周期，先加息了25个基点，5月份又加息了50个基点来对抗美国通胀。这也使得美联储不得不放弃他们之前的通胀暂时论，转向与通胀的较长时间的抗争之中。既要保持经济增长又想控制通胀，实现软着陆，这对于美联储的货币政策是一个很大的考验。美国总统拜登随后在白宫声明中表示：虽然四月的通胀年率的有所缓和令人振奋，但通胀高的仍然令人无法接受。拜登表明，全球供应链问题与疫情和俄乌冲突相关，通货膨胀对全美各地的家庭都是一个挑战，降低通货膨胀将是他的首要经济任务。拜登认为，美联储要发挥降低通胀的首要作用，这使得美联储主席鲍威尔的压力更大，不得不采取措施来应对高通胀，而美联储主席鲍威尔也暗示在接下来的几次会议上加息50个基点是可能的，但并没有考虑单次加息75个基点的可能。美联储主席鲍威尔的表态也说明，除了应对通胀之外，保持市场信心，保持资本市场稳定，防止股市暴跌，也是他的重要目的。否则股市大跌可能会进一步影响到消费，美国家庭资产60%以上都配置在股票和基金上，主要是通过401K养老金计划入市的。这一方面是美国股市的一个基石，起到了稳定市场的作用；但是另一方面，市场下跌可能会影响到家庭资产状况，从而影响消费信心，这对于经济发展是不利的。去年年底我明确讲到：今年美股见顶回落的风险在加大。而事实上，从高点算起，纳斯达克指数回落的幅度已经达到20%以上，已经跌入熊市区间，道琼斯指数下跌幅度也超过了10%。虽然现在还没法判断美股会不会出现持续的调整走势，但是至少美股出现高位回落的风险是在加大的。这对于全球资本市场都形成负面的影响，但是我觉得对于A股和港股的影响是短暂的。因为两国股市的位置不同，美股处于历史高位回落的阶段，而A股和港股则是处在历史大底的位置。所以这也使得全球资本可能会重新做资产配置，以寻找新的估值洼地，而A股和港股无疑是全球资本市场的估值洼地，性价比是比较高的。所以外资流入的可能性还是比较大的，如果人民币汇率出现反弹，就有可能会进一步吸引外资布局人民币资产。所以大家对于A股和港股的优质龙头股或者是优质龙头基金要保持信心和耐心，从五年尺度来看，当前A股和港股均处于历史大底的位置。在历史大底的位置保持信心和耐心，坚持价值投资理念，做好公司的股东，很可能做到“只输时间不输钱”。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":612704092,"gmtCreate":1652512839816,"gmtModify":1652512839816,"author":{"id":"3547635365309209","authorId":"3547635365309209","name":"Julio堂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61010cf4fad5ebcf13d5d07866c6ae93","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547635365309209","authorIdStr":"3547635365309209"},"htmlText":"A股哪来的多空拉锯，我开了做空都融不到券","listText":"A股哪来的多空拉锯，我开了做空都融不到券","text":"A股哪来的多空拉锯，我开了做空都融不到券","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612704092","repostId":1150968256,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":612496768,"gmtCreate":1652437696854,"gmtModify":1652437696854,"author":{"id":"3556223833274629","authorId":"3556223833274629","name":"老山古","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3556223833274629","authorIdStr":"3556223833274629"},"htmlText":"少年底，幼儿底，婴儿底，胎盘底，都喊遍了[龇牙]，接下来什么底啊[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"少年底，幼儿底，婴儿底，胎盘底，都喊遍了[龇牙]，接下来什么底啊[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"少年底，幼儿底，婴儿底，胎盘底，都喊遍了[龇牙]，接下来什么底啊[龇牙] 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