最糟糕的情况：假如美国政府关门数周，美股可能暴跌30%

华尔街见闻2021-09-30

从今年8月1日起，美国国会给财政部无限发债的授权到期，联邦政府再度受到债务上限的制约。当前美国债务已达28.7万亿美元的上限，比国际金融危机时高了一倍还多。财政部估计，到10月18日，美国将无力偿还债务。分析认为，政府解决债务上限问题的时间越长，市场就会越紧张。如果美国政府停摆数周，宏观经济将遭受严重打击，美股可能暴跌30%，失业率将大增，美国信用也会受创。政府越拖市场越紧张新闻机构...

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精彩评论

d4
2021-10-01
d4
自己做空去，发财不用和我们说，没人想听
EricStone
2021-09-30
EricStone
just do it！
Sunny001
2021-09-30
Sunny001
跌百分之三十看看
爱在喜欢前
2021-09-30
爱在喜欢前
关了多少次了
splinter
2021-09-30
splinter
数周是几周？我记得美国政府关门不是一次两次了，很正常
Fisher2021
2021-09-30
Fisher2021
这种新闻就是扰乱散户心神的

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641554><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>从今年8月1日起，美国国会给财政部无限发债的授权到期，联邦政府再度受到债务上限的制约。当前美国债务已达28.7万亿美元的上限，比国际金融危机时高了一倍还多。财政部估计，到10月18日，美国将无力偿还债务。\n分析认为，政府解决债务上限问题的时间越长，市场就会越紧张。如果美国政府停摆数周，宏观经济将遭受严重打击，美股可能暴跌30%，失业率将大增，美国信用也会受创。\n政府越拖 市场越紧张\n新闻机构...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641554\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641554","article_id":"1150696655","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20"],"rights":{"source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641554","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150696655","pubTimestamp":1632988334,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"从今年8月1日起，美国国会给财政部无限发债的授权到期，联邦政府再度受到债务上限的制约。当前美国债务已达28.7万亿美元的上限，比国际金融危机时高了一倍还多。财政部估计，到10月18日，美国将无力偿还债","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Worst case: If the US 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Center)警告称，为了继续支付利息，财政部可能不得不削减约40%的支出，这将导致包括社保受益人和相关承包机构的所有相关人都难以支付自己的账单，损害公众对美国的信心。\n国际评级机构穆迪预测，如果美国债务违约，美国家庭财富将面临15万亿美元的损失，另外还将造成600万个劳动岗位的缺口。\n2013年，美联储也进行了类似的研究，研究显示，假如美国政府停摆数周，宏观经济将遭受严重打击。\n届时，10年期国债收益率和BBB级公司债券收益率均会大幅增加，美股将暴跌30%，而美元则下跌10%。失业率大增、GDP增长放缓也将随之而来。\n\n但华尔街见闻此前提及，高盛认为，从历史角度上看，美国政府停摆通常不会对股票市场产生重大影响。\n统计显示，在1980年以来的14次政府停摆中，标准普尔500指数在预算授权到期之日的回报率中值为-0.1%，在停摆期间为0.1%，在重开之日为0.3%。\n同时，高盛指出，相比于政府停摆及债务上限到期，宏观基本面对于市场的影响更为重要。\n考虑到债务上限到期，目前的市场状况更接近于2011年和2013年的状况：标普500在2011年下跌，但在2013年债务上限到期时却出现反弹。\n这种市场变化可以从宏观基本面寻找原因：2011年整体宏观环境相对恶劣，欧债危机、标普下调美国主权债务评级、美国经济增速下滑都促使股市下跌；相比之下，2013年的宏观环境更为有利。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":865726948,"gmtCreate":1633023391858,"gmtModify":1633023391858,"author":{"id":"3518637139876229","authorId":"3518637139876229","name":"d4","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"自己做空去，发财不用和我们说，没人想听","listText":"自己做空去，发财不用和我们说，没人想听","text":"自己做空去，发财不用和我们说，没人想听","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865726948","repostId":1150696655,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":865737862,"gmtCreate":1633017371789,"gmtModify":1633017371789,"author":{"id":"3561149620708492","authorId":"3561149620708492","name":"EricStone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"just do it！","listText":"just do it！","text":"just do it！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865737862","repostId":1150696655,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":865738717,"gmtCreate":1633016934475,"gmtModify":1633016934475,"author":{"id":"3508622094525829","authorId":"3508622094525829","name":"Sunny001","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6079fa525590e8fbd7d85eb4949fca","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"跌百分之三十看看","listText":"跌百分之三十看看","text":"跌百分之三十看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865738717","repostId":1150696655,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":865474166,"gmtCreate":1633014567004,"gmtModify":1633014567004,"author":{"id":"3567862348002462","authorId":"3567862348002462","name":"爱在喜欢前","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d02180e32673d7658188041d0d2be42","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"关了多少次了&nbsp;","listText":"关了多少次了&nbsp;","text":"关了多少次了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865474166","repostId":1150696655,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":865443758,"gmtCreate":1633013321498,"gmtModify":1633046714264,"author":{"id":"316167979112976","authorId":"316167979112976","name":"splinter","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ded9f2b69e5422970705aa6e7da58186","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"数周是几周？我记得美国政府关门不是一次两次了，很正常","listText":"数周是几周？我记得美国政府关门不是一次两次了，很正常","text":"数周是几周？我记得美国政府关门不是一次两次了，很正常","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865443758","repostId":1150696655,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":865487399,"gmtCreate":1633011184349,"gmtModify":1633011184349,"author":{"id":"304170013407570","authorId":"304170013407570","name":"Fisher2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb40fc2809be9569a8dd10f593542d4","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"这种新闻就是扰乱散户心神的","listText":"这种新闻就是扰乱散户心神的","text":"这种新闻就是扰乱散户心神的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865487399","repostId":1150696655,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":9,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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