最糟糕的情况：假如美国政府关门数周，美股可能暴跌30%

华尔街见闻2021-09-30

从今年8月1日起，美国国会给财政部无限发债的授权到期，联邦政府再度受到债务上限的制约。当前美国债务已达28.7万亿美元的上限，比国际金融危机时高了一倍还多。财政部估计，到10月18日，美国将无力偿还债务。分析认为，政府解决债务上限问题的时间越长，市场就会越紧张。如果美国政府停摆数周，宏观经济将遭受严重打击，美股可能暴跌30%，失业率将大增，美国信用也会受创。政府越拖市场越紧张新闻机构...

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精彩评论

d4
2021-10-01
d4
自己做空去，发财不用和我们说，没人想听
EricStone
2021-09-30
EricStone
just do it！
Sunny001
2021-09-30
Sunny001
跌百分之三十看看
爱在喜欢前
2021-09-30
爱在喜欢前
关了多少次了
splinter
2021-09-30
splinter
数周是几周？我记得美国政府关门不是一次两次了，很正常
Fisher2058
2021-09-30
Fisher2058
这种新闻就是扰乱散户心神的

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641554><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>从今年8月1日起，美国国会给财政部无限发债的授权到期，联邦政府再度受到债务上限的制约。当前美国债务已达28.7万亿美元的上限，比国际金融危机时高了一倍还多。财政部估计，到10月18日，美国将无力偿还债务。\n分析认为，政府解决债务上限问题的时间越长，市场就会越紧张。如果美国政府停摆数周，宏观经济将遭受严重打击，美股可能暴跌30%，失业率将大增，美国信用也会受创。\n政府越拖 市场越紧张\n新闻机构...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641554\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641554","article_id":"1150696655","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20"],"rights":{"source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641554","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150696655","pubTimestamp":1632988334,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"从今年8月1日起，美国国会给财政部无限发债的授权到期，联邦政府再度受到债务上限的制约。当前美国债务已达28.7万亿美元的上限，比国际金融危机时高了一倍还多。财政部估计，到10月18日，美国将无力偿还债","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Worst case: If the US government closes for several weeks, US stocks may plummet by 30%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cca9bf9fe2d8af5c435675fc060c22","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"从今年8月1日起，美国国会给财政部无限发债的授权到期，联邦政府再度受到债务上限的制约。当前美国债务已达28.7万亿美元的上限，比国际金融危机时高了一倍还多。财政部估计，到10月18日，美国将无力偿还债务。\n分析认为，政府解决债务上限问题的时间越长，市场就会越紧张。如果美国政府停摆数周，宏观经济将遭受严重打击，美股可能暴跌30%，失业率将大增，美国信用也会受创。\n政府越拖 市场越紧张\n新闻机构Quartz表示，如果投资者购买到10月18日到期的国债，那么将只能获得几个基点的收益率，这表明目前投资者认为美国政府不太可能违约。\n\n但根据历史经验，政府解决债务上限问题的时间越长，市场就会越紧张。\n根据布鲁金斯学会的数据，2013年，当国会在债务上限问题上犹豫不决时，美国国债收益率大幅上升，由于政府到最后一刻才批准增加贷款，收益率上升了40个基点甚至更多。\n28日，美国财政部长耶伦致函国会称，债务上限僵局拖到最后一分钟会严重损害企业和消费者信心，增加纳税人的借贷成本，并且将对美国信用评级产生负面影响。\n错过债务上限最后期限 美股或将暴跌30%\n根据美国智库布鲁金斯学会，如果财政部错过提高债务上限的最后期限，政府可能会推迟支付对机构、社保受益人、医保机构支付账单，并将继续支付国债的利息，以避免违约。\n这种做法可能会保护美国票据和债券的投资者，但同时可能会降低投资者对美国的信心。\n鲁金斯学会研究员Wendy Edelberg和Louise Sheine表示，这在很大程度上可能取决于这种僵局将持续多久，以及国债投资者是否认为它们将继续被优先考虑。\n两党政策中心(Bipartisan Policy Center)警告称，为了继续支付利息，财政部可能不得不削减约40%的支出，这将导致包括社保受益人和相关承包机构的所有相关人都难以支付自己的账单，损害公众对美国的信心。\n国际评级机构穆迪预测，如果美国债务违约，美国家庭财富将面临15万亿美元的损失，另外还将造成600万个劳动岗位的缺口。\n2013年，美联储也进行了类似的研究，研究显示，假如美国政府停摆数周，宏观经济将遭受严重打击。\n届时，10年期国债收益率和BBB级公司债券收益率均会大幅增加，美股将暴跌30%，而美元则下跌10%。失业率大增、GDP增长放缓也将随之而来。\n\n但华尔街见闻此前提及，高盛认为，从历史角度上看，美国政府停摆通常不会对股票市场产生重大影响。\n统计显示，在1980年以来的14次政府停摆中，标准普尔500指数在预算授权到期之日的回报率中值为-0.1%，在停摆期间为0.1%，在重开之日为0.3%。\n同时，高盛指出，相比于政府停摆及债务上限到期，宏观基本面对于市场的影响更为重要。\n考虑到债务上限到期，目前的市场状况更接近于2011年和2013年的状况：标普500在2011年下跌，但在2013年债务上限到期时却出现反弹。\n这种市场变化可以从宏观基本面寻找原因：2011年整体宏观环境相对恶劣，欧债危机、标普下调美国主权债务评级、美国经济增速下滑都促使股市下跌；相比之下，2013年的宏观环境更为有利。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":865726948,"gmtCreate":1633023391858,"gmtModify":1633023391858,"author":{"id":"3518637139876229","authorId":"3518637139876229","name":"d4","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3518637139876229","idStr":"3518637139876229"},"htmlText":"自己做空去，发财不用和我们说，没人想听","listText":"自己做空去，发财不用和我们说，没人想听","text":"自己做空去，发财不用和我们说，没人想听","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865726948","repostId":1150696655,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":865737862,"gmtCreate":1633017371789,"gmtModify":1633017371789,"author":{"id":"3561149620708492","authorId":"3561149620708492","name":"EricStone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3561149620708492","idStr":"3561149620708492"},"htmlText":"just do it！","listText":"just do it！","text":"just do it！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865737862","repostId":1150696655,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":865738717,"gmtCreate":1633016934475,"gmtModify":1633016934475,"author":{"id":"3508622094525829","authorId":"3508622094525829","name":"Sunny001","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6079fa525590e8fbd7d85eb4949fca","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3508622094525829","idStr":"3508622094525829"},"htmlText":"跌百分之三十看看","listText":"跌百分之三十看看","text":"跌百分之三十看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865738717","repostId":1150696655,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":865474166,"gmtCreate":1633014567004,"gmtModify":1633014567004,"author":{"id":"3567862348002462","authorId":"3567862348002462","name":"爱在喜欢前","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cac33daec1db1a8b98757cec2effaf84","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3567862348002462","idStr":"3567862348002462"},"htmlText":"关了多少次了&nbsp;","listText":"关了多少次了&nbsp;","text":"关了多少次了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865474166","repostId":1150696655,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":865443758,"gmtCreate":1633013321498,"gmtModify":1633046714264,"author":{"id":"316167979112976","authorId":"316167979112976","name":"splinter","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ded9f2b69e5422970705aa6e7da58186","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"316167979112976","idStr":"316167979112976"},"htmlText":"数周是几周？我记得美国政府关门不是一次两次了，很正常","listText":"数周是几周？我记得美国政府关门不是一次两次了，很正常","text":"数周是几周？我记得美国政府关门不是一次两次了，很正常","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865443758","repostId":1150696655,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":865487399,"gmtCreate":1633011184349,"gmtModify":1633011184349,"author":{"id":"304170013407570","authorId":"304170013407570","name":"Fisher2058","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e3fdd34c70035604005de13857353d1","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"304170013407570","idStr":"304170013407570"},"htmlText":"这种新闻就是扰乱散户心神的","listText":"这种新闻就是扰乱散户心神的","text":"这种新闻就是扰乱散户心神的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865487399","repostId":1150696655,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":9,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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