相当于再加息25个基点！美债上限协议达成的后果才是真恐怖

金十数据2023-05-18

一旦达成协议，美国政府恐疯狂耗尽上万亿美元的流动性，效果堪比再加息25个基点，甚至可能影响美联储的量化紧缩计划……在市场对美国可能出现历史性违约的前景感到担忧的背后，隐藏着一个较少被讨论的风险，即解决债务上限僵局的协议达成后会出现什么情况。华尔街许多人士此前都预计，国会议员最终将达成协议，避免灾难性的债务违约，即使是在最后一刻。但这并不意味着美国经济将毫发无损，因为除了债务上限僵局造成的伤害之外，...

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精彩评论

王城_
2023-05-19
王城_
评论区里的这些人下后两个月死的难看[捂脸]
- Alex_168:
  哈哈，9菜已经上车了
谋远
2023-05-19
谋远
流动性增量取决于私人部门的贷款意愿，而非商业银行的准备金多少，超额准备金本身就是闲置资金，政府增加现金储备不过就是准备金换个户头而已，还会在货币巿场运转，何来流动性减少呢？
慧_4909
2023-05-19
慧_4909
横竖都是死？！
砖怼马后炮
2023-05-18
砖怼马后炮
不要唱空你可以去做空美国二货
砖怼马后炮
2023-05-18
砖怼马后炮
盘中就特么打脸了哈哈哈哈哈

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The consequences of the US debt ceiling agreement are really horrible","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9013a07f9f33d17fe4c33dd490da06","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"一旦达成协议，美国政府恐疯狂耗尽上万亿美元的流动性，效果堪比再加息25个基点，甚至可能影响美联储的量化紧缩计划……在市场对美国可能出现历史性违约的前景感到担忧的背后，隐藏着一个较少被讨论的风险，即解决债务上限僵局的协议达成后会出现什么情况。华尔街许多人士此前都预计，国会议员最终将达成协议，避免灾难性的债务违约，即使是在最后一刻。但这并不意味着美国经济将毫发无损，因为除了债务上限僵局造成的伤害之外，财政部在能够增加借贷后恢复正常运作的结果也将损害美国经济。总部位于纽约的Penso Advisors的创始人伯格曼（Ari Bergmann）的公司专门从事难以管理的风险，他认为，投资者应该针对华盛顿达成美债上限协议的风险进行对冲。伯格曼的意思是，一旦债务上限问题解决，财政部将需要通过大量出售国库券来补充其日益减少的现金缓冲，以维持其支付债务的能力。据估计，到第三季度末，国库券供应将远远超过1万亿美元，这将迅速耗尽银行业的流动性，导致短期融资利率上升，并在美国经济处于衰退边缘之际收紧美国经济。据美国银行估计，这将产生与加息25个基点相同的经济影响。在美联储实施数十年来最激进的紧缩周期后，借贷成本上升已经对一些企业造成了影响，并正在慢慢抑制经济增长。在这种背景下，伯格曼尤其担心财政部最终会采取行动重建现金储备，他认为银行准备金可能会因此而大幅减少。他表示：“我更担心的是，当债务上限问题得到解决时，流动性将出现非常、非常严重和突然的流失。这看起来不是很明显，但却是非常真实的。我们以前曾经历过，流动性的下降确实会对股票和信贷等风险市场产生负面影响。”结果是，即使在华盛顿度过了最近的僵局之后，财政部现金余额的动态、美联储量化紧缩计划以及政策利率上升的痛苦，都将给风险资产和经济带来压力。根据财政部的最新估计，在债务上限得到解决后，美国政府的现金储备，即财政部一般账户（TGA）将从目前的950亿美元飙升至6月底的5500亿美元，并在三个月后达到6000亿美元。该账户的反弹将影响整个金融体系的流动性，因为TGA是美联储资产负债表上的一项负债，类似于银行准备金和票据。为了平衡美联储的资产和负债，TGA的下降将导致银行准备金上升，这可能会增加对更广泛经济或市场的放贷或投资，即向金融体系注入流动性。当财政部在一段时间内发行的票据超过其技术需求时，TGA账户就会膨胀，这相当于从私营部门提取现金，导致金融体系流动性下降。这个谜题的另一个重要部分是美联储的逆回购协议工具（RRP），该工具令货币市场基金得以将其现金以略高于5%的利率隔夜存放在美联储。货币基金2万亿美元能助攻吗？目前超过2万亿美元的RRP也是美联储的一项负债。因此，如果财政部的资金增加，但RRP下降，那么银行准备金的消耗就会降低。但花旗集团的全球市场策略师Matt King说，货币基金将现金存放在RRP的倾向很可能会持续下去，这可能意味着，当财政部的现金大幅增加时，银行准备金将大量流失。这将发生在全球主要央行已经通过激进的紧缩行动和收缩资产负债表的努力并吸走流动性之际。King表示：“我们正从过去六个月全球央行流动性的强劲顺风转向潜在的强劲逆风，我们真正关心的是银行准备金，它应该正在下降。所以在这一点上，我强烈倾向于避险。”道明证券的全球利率策略主管普里亚•米斯拉（Priya Misra）担心的是，银行准备金将变得稀缺，从而扰乱融资市场，而融资市场是华尔街许多交易的核心。这种稀缺“后果很严重，因为它会推高回购利率”。米斯拉表示：“高回购利率通常会导致大量避险。如果我是一个对冲基金，我的整个商业模式就是基于借钱。而高回购利率不仅意味着利率上升，而且还可能意味着借不到钱。”对融资市场的这种影响曾在2017-2018年债务上限事件之后发生，当时财政部在大约六周内发行了5000亿美元的票据。当然，美国财政部知道，大量债券可能扰乱市场，并在最后的再融资期间向一级交易商询问了这个问题。这些公司鼓励财政部监控市场潜在的压力，以确保其补充现金余额的余额不会太快。太平洋投资管理公司短期投资组合管理和融资主管杰罗姆·施耐德（Jerome Schneider）表示：“财政部必须重建他们的应急基金，这将从系统中移除流动性。”在巴克莱策略师阿巴特（Joseph 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