AMC stock surged 10% in premarket trading

AMC stock surged 10% in premarket trading.B. Riley analyst Eric Wold reiterated a Buy rating on AMC shares along with a $16 price target. This figure implies ~15% upside for the year ahead.

Wold believes that AMC probably has enough cash that it won't need to raise any more "before industry trends recover in 2022/2023" -- although it still has the option "to take strategic actions to improve the balance sheet further."

Indeed, the analyst says AMC now has "at least aone-year cash runway" at current levels of movie attendance (and probably longer than that, given that attendance is improving).

Wold describes AMC's decision to raise cash this month as "opportunistic" rather than "necessary," and notes that the company has taken other steps to bolster its balance sheet, including renegotiating its property lease terms to take into account diminished attendance at its theaters during the pandemic. At the same time, the analyst believes AMC has an "improved cash flow outlook" this year, predicting a "box office recovery into year-end," which will yield more revenues to cover the company's expenses.

Already, says Wold, both New York and California, two of the biggest markets for movie-watching, have more or less eliminated capacity restrictions on theater attendance. And this lifting of restrictions coincides with the arrival of "pent-up demand for moviegoing" among viewers who've been essentially locked out of theaters for the past year. Wold describes the slate of blockbuster movies coming out this summer as "impressive," and says the release dates for these films have "begun to stabilize in recent weeks," which should make it easier to predict the box office hauls that AMC might anticipate as the year progresses.

Running the numbers, Wold estimates that U.S. box office numbers will be down 70% in Q2 2021 (relative to 2019 levels), but down only 35% in Q3 (the summer quarter), and down only 20% in Q4 (the winter quarter). In dollars and cents, the analyst says this should translate to nearly $2.5 billion in revenues this year, nearly doubling to $4.7 billion in 2022, and then growing about 15% to $5.4 billion in 2023. By that point, AMC should be almost back in the black, losing only $0.35 per share in fiscal 2023.

In contrast to Wold, the Street remains unconvinced. AMC stock has a Hold consensus rating, based on 3 Holds, 2 Sells, and only 1 Buy. The forecast is for ~49% downside, given the average price target stands at $7.13.