Palantir: AI Juggernaut Boosted By SPAC Investments And Frontier Technologies

Seeking Alpha2021-11-05

Summary Palantir's SPAC portfolio gives the company an early opportunity to invest in multi-billion industries which provides for significant upside in the long run. Apollo for Edge AI enables ...

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It was co-founded by Peter Thiel and Alex Karp, together with 3 other founders; Nathan Gettings, Joe Lonsdale, and Stephen Cohen in 2003. The company was listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in 2020.\nPalantir leverages machine learning, data analysis algorithms to identify, predict, and report conclusions and outcomes. Through these data collected, it is then processed and analysed where meaningful patterns and connections are then derived in order to make operational decisions and predict outcomes.\nA quick summary of Palantir’s 3 platforms: Gotham, Foundry and Apollo.\nGotham\nGotham is used by government intelligence agencies, health organizations, armies and police departments to fight terrorism, battle infectious diseases, win wars, and prevent civilian crime. They are also commonly referred to by Palantir as the operating system of governments. It is suspected that Gotham software is rumoured to have been used in the capture of Osama Bin Laden and other counter-terrorism campaigns that the U.S. armed forces have led.\nFoundry\nFoundry is tailored for commercial organizations to collect, process, and analyze data to make better operational decisions efficiently. They are known as the data operating system of organizations. A few companies that have been working with Foundry are BP, for the use of technology to cut greenhouse-gas emissions and 3M which has chosen to expand its use of Palantir’s Foundry platform to support its digital transformation, with the build-out of a dynamic supply chain.\nApollo\nApollo is a continuous delivery system that manages and deploys Palantir Gotham and Foundry. It was built out of the need for customers to use multiple public and private cloud platforms as part of their infrastructure. Apollo allows Palantir to provide software as a service (SaaS) across various terrains, environments, and scenarios, allowing ease of use and deployment across cloud, on-premises, and classified networks. Apollo is the piece that is able to securely bring together and scale both Foundry and Gotham.\nBased on Palantir’s latest earnings call transcript in August, Apollo was coined as their “secret advantage”, where it allows the team to take the SaaS offering to blue-ocean deployment grounds, such as drones, subs, satellites, classified networks, and on-premises without losing the efficiencies and the scalability of a centrally managed SaaS solution. Having the flexibility to do so also allows for proper deployment and increases the take-rate of companies that are keen to collaborate with Palantir.\nSource: Palantir Blog\nUnderstanding and taking a Deeper Dive into Palantir SPAC Investments:\nBased on Palantir’s most recent 10-Q reports, it was revealed that Palantir has made an overall $250 million investment in 10 different companies. It was also highlighted that there were specific terms and conditions, where the closing of these investments are contingent upon the proposed business combination between the Investee and other parties.\nThis investment strategy includes the inclusion of committed commercial services and agreements with the various companies and gives Palantir an edge forward in growing their Total Addressable Market (TAM), limiting their downside, and giving potentially explosive upside growth once they are entrenched in Palantir’s systems.\nSource: Palantir’s 10-Q\nWejo\nWejo is a global leader in connected vehicle data. The company offers a trading platform and web-based SaaS platform;Wejo Studio which analyzes data from millions of connected vehicles and translates billions of data points in near real-time into game-changing traffic and journey insights for business users to leverage. Organizations - from public sector transportation departments to real estate companies to fleet and logistics companies and beyond - can unlock a deeper understanding of mobility trends, enabling them to make smarter decisions faster, innovate and solve problems more effectively.\n\nSource: Wejo’s official site\nWejo and Palantir are looking to create an integrated data ecosystem for a partnership for the automotive industry and beyond. This is through Palantir’s investment in Wejo (through their agreement to merge with Virtuoso Acquisition Corp.(NASDAQ:VOSO)). Through their jointly released press release, it was stated that Wejo collects and analyses more than 16 billion data points per day in near real time across a network of 11 million live vehicles, and that there are more than 10 trillion data points and 48 billion journeys from connected vehicles. The partnership with Palantir’s Foundry platform also unlocks a diverse set of use cases that will benefit society on a global scale.\nPalantir and Wejo’s Partnership in the Automotive Industry\nWejo collects and analyzes more than 16 billion data points per day in near real-time across a network of 11 million live vehicles. The partnership aims to combine Wejo’s robust data asset with the power of Palantir’s Foundry to unlock a diverse set of use cases that will benefit society on a greater scale.\nThe partnership between both parties will focus on support but not limited to: traffic and insurance solutions, remote diagnostics, integrated payments, advertising, retail and logistics, reducing emissions, improving vehicular safety measures, working with city planners in designing resilient smart cities, autonomous driving, etc.\nThrough connected vehicle data, Palantir is able to take the data points collected and turn them into actionable intelligence where drivers and OEMs can take advantage of these to further understand and unlock the potential that allows for new solutions, opportunities, and accelerated growth. An example of this would be the ability to price mobility insurance plans efficiently because of the data points that have been collated throughout the various drive periods.\nTherefore, this partnership will improve the overall transportation system and experience for all related parties.\nSarcos Robotics\nSource: Sarcos Robotics Plans SPAC Deal for $1.3 Billion Value\nSarcos(NASDAQ:STRC) develops robotic systems for non-repetitive tasks that are designed to increase productivity among industrial and military workers. Its wearable devices help people move heavy objects with mechanical limbs and support, reducing workplace injuries and allowing employees less capable of strenuous labor to carry out tasks such as lifting airport baggage and manufacturing components without assistance.\nRobots as a Service\nOn April 4, 2021, the Company entered into an agreement with Palantir in which the Company would commit to utilizing software and services from Palantir over the next six years for a total of $42 million. The software and services are an integral part of the Company’s plans to provide Robots as a Service upon commercialization of the Company’s Guardian® XO and XT robots. In return, Palantir will make an investment of $21 million through the listing SPAC vehicle.\nUnlocking data in Sarcos’s Robots\nAs mentioned by Ben Wolff, CEO ofSarcosduring a Benzinga interview, the main gist and benefit of the partnership are that Sarcos is now able to monitor and evaluate the data coming off from their machines. The robot as a service model that is built by Sarcos is the next generation unit of labour to augment the workforce.\nPalantir’s role is crucial as it acts as a base to monitor and evaluate the data and for material decisions to be made.\nRoivant Sciences\nRoivant Sciences(NASDAQ:ROIV) is a healthcare company focused on applying technology to drug development. Roivant builds subsidiary biotech and healthcare technology companies.\nRoivant’s mission is to improve the delivery of healthcare to patients by treating each inefficiency as an opportunity. Roivant develops transformative medicines faster by building technologies and developing talent in creative ways, leveraging the Roivant platform to launch “Vants” - nimble and focused biopharmaceutical and health technology companies.\nSource: Swiss Biotech\nA partnership between Roivant and Palantir\nPalantir has invested $30 million in a private financing round into the SPAC, and Roivant Sciences will pay $39 million over a five-year period for a subscription contract for products and services under the agreement.\nThrough this partnership, Palantir is able to increase its reach in drug discovery and development. Together with the other strategic partners that Palantir is supporting in the Health Sciences industry, Palantir is able to share trial data with development partners and build out real-world evidence capabilities to support key disease areas. As more strategic partnerships are forged in this sector, it will only prove to be of greater benefit as better decisions are able to be made, and this leads to a net positive outcome for humankind as data is able to get analyzed more efficiently and effectively leading to more lives being saved.\nCelularity\nCelularity is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing off-the-shelf placental-derived allogeneic cell therapies including genetically modified and unmodified NK cells, engineered T cells including CAR-T cells, and mesenchymal-like adherent stromal cells (ASCs), targeting indications across cancer, immunologic, infectious, and degenerative diseases.\nCelularity went public via a SPAC deal with GX Acquisition Corp: (Nasdaq: GXGX) that valued the company at $1.7 billion. After the merger, the company announced that Palantir will be both an investor and partner of the company where Palantir invested $20 million and that they will provide Foundry services valued at $40 million over 5 years.\nThis multi-year strategic partnership will allow Celularity to leverage on Palantir’s Foundry AI Platform with the current deep dataset that Celularity has to accelerate and advance cellular therapies.\nThe Value by Palantir to Celularity\nAs shared by Shyam Sankar, COO Palantir, Celularity’s approach to cellular therapies and its potential to be transformational in the field of placental cellular technology is synergized with the data analytics capabilities that Palantir is able to offer.\nThrough Palantir, meaningful clinical insights are able to be generated and this allows organizations to accelerate life sciences research and enables data-driven inference to guide scientific research.\nRobert J. Hariri, Chairperson and CEOCelularity,also shared that the Palantir platform is able to provide deep analysis of large and complex datasets related to the genomics, secretomics, epigenetics and biological performance of cells in manufacturing and clinically.\nThe partnership between both companies provides the foundation for translating data into inference that can guide research and development programs, and is able to achieve the combined goal of creating the next evolution in cellular medicine.\nNext Growth Driver: Palantir AI/ML Modules on Edge\nAs global industries and companies shift their focus and emphasis into building Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning modules, it is important to understand that beyond the build, it is also important to be able to manage models over time and to make them useful for downstream operations. Palantir does so by deploying these AI/ML modelson top of a trustworthy data foundation and continuously improving them based on user decisions and feedback - in a cyclic way.\nInterconnected Micro Models Ecosystem\nPalantir has pioneered an entirely new approach to enterprise modelling called Micro Models. Micro Models help to decompose a goal into the smallest useful tasks and deploy models to solve them. Palantir software then chains these models together. In the chaining process, the platform standardizes the outputs of one model so that they can become inputs to models downstream, powering advanced interconnected workflows.\nPalantir’s Edge AI - Allowing Software Applicability across Extreme Terrains and Conditions\nPalantir’s approach for responsible AI/ML in Palantir Foundry reflects foundational belief in augmenting human intelligence, and not replacing it. Through the algorithms, the most effective manner is done when humans are empowered to understand the knowledge and basis behind certain behaviors, such that they are able to ask complex questions, interpret answers, and act on results.\nPalantir Edge AI is Palantir’s AI orchestration and sensor fusion engine that runs on disconnected, remote endpoints. It enables autonomous decision-making for on-hardware models consuming real-time sensor, radio, acoustic, geo-registration, and time series data. Extremely lightweight and power efficient, Palantir Edge Ai brings AI to drones, vehicles, buildings, oil rigs, aircraft, ships, wind turbines, robots, satellites - and more.\nUnpacking the Technical White Paper by Palantir on Edge AI\nDiving into the White Paper, we have identified several factors that highlight how mission-critical and crucial Palantir’s platform services are. Through the amount of collective data from various IoT sensors at the edge, Palantir is able to unpack these into analytics and datasets into valuable analyses.\nTime dependency is also a core criteria as these data are moved to the cloud for processing and that it is of utmost importance to report back the most accurate analysis. These split second decision making processes will allow for a competitive advantage to these organizations and provide autonomous decision-making.\nPalantir provides a plethora of services and platforms that are mission-critical and indispensable across unfamiliar territories, terrains, and conditions. It also creates more value through the continuous aggregation and analysis of the data that is produced in these conditions. This increases its “stickiness” and replaceability between itself and the consumers.\nVery often, Palantir is mission-critical and built for situations where time and efficiency matters. The ability to go online in various low-bandwidth, low-power formats and conditions across vehicles such as drones, aircraft, ships, robots, buildings, and satellites make it extremely valuable as the data has to be precise and time-sensitive.\nRamping up on Sales Team\nPalantir has also recognised the need to invest resources to build a strong sales and marketing team. Quality and time invested over the past decade to build up superior products and trained technical capabilities has paid off and they are now primed for scaling up.\nBeyond working with more traditional conglomerate names such as International Business Machine Corp. (IBM), Fujitsu Ltd, and BP, Palantir has also started to transit into the Small and Medium Business (SMB) category through monthly subscriptions into startups connected to former employees.\nPalantir’s Sales Growth\nPalantir continues to see consistent growth with total revenues rising by 49% year-over-year to $376 million in Q2.\nBeyond ramping up on its direct sales force and expanding its distribution channels, Palantir has also shifted from a highly customized time-consuming deployment model to a slightly more standardized model. This allows for the ease of onboarding for commercial partners, where the turnaround time can also be reduced as deployment and fulfilment is made more efficient and this shift also reduces the technical reliance on engineers to further configure and maintain the platform.\nPalantir’s Earnings Call\nIn the earnings call for Q2, COO Sankar also mentioned that the company has further hired more sales representatives, increasing more than 60 hires in the second quarter. This surpassed more than 100 hires in the first half of the year.\nPalantir added 20 net new customers in the second quarter and the commercial customer count grew 32% in Q2. The total contract value in the second quarter was also over $900 million, outlying an exciting path ahead of future growth in the company.\nBy observing, identifying and understanding the statistics and contracts agreement won by Palantir, it can be safely concluded that there is a strong product-market fit by the software of both Foundry and Gotham. The company has also proven capable and successful in onboarding major business enterprises onto their multi-year and millions renewable contract.\nThe stance of Palantir has also changed where in the past, CEO Alex Karp used to mention that the company’s tech was good enough for it to sell itself, that everybody in the company is an engineer and there are no salespeople in the team.\nTherefore, from the recognition and evolution of the company towards embracing its sales team, it also shows that Alex Karp believes that Palantir’s product is ready for massive scale and growth. It is best represented by the proverbial “pouring gasoline on the fire” where these additional sales hires will tip the overall market adoption to the favor of Palantir.\nA first look into the aforementioned Day 0 Companies\nIn the earnings call, the executive team mentioned that they will also further focus on Day 0 companies, in order to give the company additional commercial outreach, and to expand Palantir’s capabilities and capacity to provide crucial services to smaller enterprises.\nQuoting COO Sankar: “We are making foundry accessible to even more Day 0 companies with foundry for Builders, a program which supports early stage companies with access to Foundry, allowing these companies to build their operations on foundry from the outset, enabling them not just to efficiently manage, but actually to wield the increasing complexity of their growing businesses to disrupt incumbents and to win in the marketplace. And while competitors are bogged down by legacy IT investments and an obsession with reinventing every wheel internally, these companies have no IT catalog.\"\nPotential of Day 0 Companies\nPalantir’s management also shared that by identifying these day 0 companies, or innovative companies that are in the frontier of solving massive tremendous problems, it allows Palantir to reduce the timeline as most of these companies are able to be nimble and adaptable. Having a focused vision and ambition to tackle enormous problems, they are also able to accomplish and work closely with Palantir to hit business goals and objectives.\nTherefore, being able to identify these companies early in the journey allows Palantir to have a first mover advantage, by partnering up with them and fulfilling their goals and objectives. This creates a long-term partnership where both parties benefit concurrently, with Palantir being able to further reinvest their earnings and capital into these companies, thus creating a fly-wheel effect leading to more shareholder value down the road.\nFoundry for Builders initiative\nThe Foundry for Builders initiative was launched in July to support early-stage companies by providing them with the Palantir Foundry platform to further support these companies' growth. The platform transforms the way organizations run by creating a central operating system for their data that is designed to scale with increasing complexity while powering data-driven decision making.\nIn order to increase accessibility for these start-ups, Palantir has licensed Foundry under a subscription model. This is offered as a fully managed SaaS and provides end-to-end platform that includes cloud hosting, data integration, flexible analytics, visualization, model-building, operational decision-making, and decision capture.\nPreviously, Palantir’s business model with the government and large enterprises and multinational corporations was in the format of a multi-year agreement spanning across multi-millions. These contracts are then renewed before expiry. The inclusion of these smaller companies gives Palantir further reach, where the companies are now able to access technology that was previously offered to established and leading organizations.\nAs a SaaS platform, Palantir is now accessible to companies in more sectors and industries, as the barriers of entry for these companies to onboard and trial out Palantir is lowered as capital investment and expenditure is reduced and made more available.\nValuation\nSource: Author’s own estimation, extracted from 10Q\nThe assumption for the above valuation model is that growth eventually tapers down according to management’s estimation of 30% from 2021 to 2025. However, we are of the belief that Palantir could continue growing as they are fast becoming one of the most important software companies in the world.\nFor FCF percentage margin, we modelled after several reference points and found out that matured software companies are able to generate up to 30% free cash flow margins.\nBased on a 30x Price to Free Cash Flow, the estimated intrinsic value is approximately $11.83. If we use a 40x Price to Free Cash Flow, the estimated intrinsic value is $15.44.\nAlthough we are bullish on the overall investment thesis, the share price might be on the higher side. A few key areas that we would take note in the upcoming quarterly earnings would be: (1) improving earning margins, (2) if growth rate tapers down as per management’s guidance or they continue to maintain at 40+% for the next few quarters, (3) how are the SPAC investments coming online, and if there is any cash-drag that we should take note of, (4) Share-based Compensation (SBC); we believe that dilution will eventually stabilize and not be a major factor towards existing shareholders.\nConclusion\nPalantir has evolved its business models throughout the years. From being extremely focused on the Government sector to opening up its capabilities in the Commercial space.\nThe “Foundry for Builders” program also allows smaller companies to have the opportunity to play in the same field as the larger enterprises. This is through a SaaS model where a subscription fee is paid. Furthermore, Palantir is able to upsell and cross-sell their modules and as these partners continue scaling up, they might have more service requirements. Palantir is thus positioned to enjoy this increase in Average Revenue per Partner.\nInvestors should continue to monitor these SPAC investments and to further understand management’s intention. Several thoughts that come to mind is that if these companies do not continue to perform, what will be Palantir’s strategy?\nAs an investor holding share in the company, my perspective is to treat these as Call Options, or even to have a view that Palantir is taking out their excess retained earnings to invest in exciting companies and projects. Similar to how a Venture Capitalist performs, if one of these companies outperforms and becomes a 10-50 bagger, it greatly benefits Palantir who owns shares. One thing for sure is that trust in the management team to continue sourcing out the right business associates and partners is important.\nPalantir, swiftly becoming one of the most important software companies in the world is also able to be a first-mover in these sectors, to gain an advantage by learning about them. Through these insights, they are then able to continuously execute and onboard other companies in similar industries onto their platforms. By opening up to Small-Medium Businesses,Palantiris also able to expand its addressable market. All these points to continuous growth and compounding in stock prices for the next few years, thus creating further upside for investors who have the patience to hold the stock.\nBeing able to have access to build upon these new edge technologies allows Palantir to remain relevant and build further relationships to solve greater problems around the world!","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":842529921,"gmtCreate":1636204268066,"gmtModify":1636204268542,"author":{"id":"4087109808120260","authorId":"4087109808120260","name":"Tanyl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174329973340cf0f5b68791ee5b08afd","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"PTLR price is low now","listText":"PTLR price is low now","text":"PTLR price is low 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