系好安全带！美国5月CPI或突破6%

梁中华宏观研究2021-05-14

海通宏观梁中华认为，美国4月通胀超预期，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力。由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。概要美国4月通胀超预期，其中，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力，一方面与去年低基数有关；另一方面与经济加速复苏以及汽车芯片短缺有关。此外，美国商品通胀仍高，尤其是耐用品通胀创82年以来新高；如果剔除基数效应，服务通胀已经高于商品通胀。由于高额财政补贴，...

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精彩评论

BP小林
2021-05-14
BP小林
Hmmmm
杂烩饭大人
2021-05-14
杂烩饭大人
这个CPI对普通人生活无影响
Iris俊
2021-05-14
Iris俊
今年的股市，好事多磨。
garyyue88
2021-05-14
garyyue88
[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶]
万象入星辰
2021-05-14
万象入星辰
各有考量！理念之争！
我要天天向上
2021-05-14
我要天天向上
美利坚快亡国了？

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The US CPI in May may exceed 6%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b4adf67a0e0cd4f423932cf76aa4e8","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"海通宏观梁中华认为，美国4月通胀超预期，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力。由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。概要美国4月通胀超预期，其中，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力，一方面与去年低基数有关；另一方面与经济加速复苏以及汽车芯片短缺有关。此外，美国商品通胀仍高，尤其是耐用品通胀创82年以来新高；如果剔除基数效应，服务通胀已经高于商品通胀。由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增。去年由于疫情防控，美国居民主要消费商品，所以商品通胀大涨。今年随着疫苗不断接种，疫情防控措施放开，服务消费需求也会明显回升，但高额失业补贴拖累就业表现（低收入者就业改善明显放缓），会限制美国服务业供给，而服务类消费又难以像商品那样从海外进口，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。美元大超发的后果，从4月美国CPI数据可见一斑，5月美国CPI可能冲到6-7%，美债利率或继续上冲，年内有望到2%-2.5%；美元趋势上行，但今年幅度会相对较小，需要加息预期的发酵推升。正文美国通胀超预期。4月美国CPI同比上升至4.2%，超市场预期（WIND口径）的3.6%，创08年9月以来新高；此外，CPI环比0.8%，也创12年3月以来新高。剔除食品和能源影响后，4月美国核心CPI同比上升至3.0%，超市场预期的2.3%，创95年4月以来新高。从分项来看，4月CPI的主要推动力来自能源和交通运输。4月能源CPI 同比上升至25.0%，较上月上升了约12个百分点；4月交通运输CPI 同比上升至14.8% ，也较上月上升了约9 个百分点，二者在CPI 构成中的权重超过20% 。能源和交通运输大幅上升，一方面与去年低基数有关；另一方面与经济加速恢复以及汽车芯片短缺有关。从结构来看，商品通胀仍是主要驱动力，服务通胀也在稳步上升。4 月商品通胀由上月的4.1% 上行至6.7% ，4 月服务通胀也由上月的1.8% 上行至2.6% ，其中，耐用品通胀再度飙升至7.3% ，创82 年以来新高。如果剔除基数效应，4 月商品通胀为2.0% （较19 年同期年化平均增速），而服务通胀为仍高达2.3% ，耐用品通胀则为3.3% （除今年外，仍是95 年以来高点）。此外，需要强调的是，即使剔除食品和能源以及基数效应，核心商品和核心服务均在上行趋势中。往前看，由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增。去年由于疫情防控，美国居民主要消费商品，所以商品通胀大涨。今年随着疫苗不断接种，疫情防控措施放开，服务消费需求也会明显回升，但高额失业补贴拖累就业表现（低收入者就业改善明显放缓），会限制美国服务业供给，而服务类消费又难以像商品那样从海外进口，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。美元大超发的后果，从4月美国CPI数据可见一斑，5月美国CPI可能冲到6-7%，美债利率或继续上冲，年内有望到2%-2.5%；美元趋势上行，但今年幅度会相对较小，需要加息预期的发酵推升。本文作者：梁中华、李俊，来源：海通宏观，原文标题：《美国5月CPI或突破6%——美国4月物价数据点评》","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":198761029,"gmtCreate":1620991931261,"gmtModify":1634194733338,"author":{"id":"3569034930679856","authorId":"3569034930679856","name":"BP小林","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab11857f8510820e3bc13bd0a9bd1bcb","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Hmmmm","listText":"Hmmmm","text":"Hmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198761029","repostId":1148551338,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":198564399,"gmtCreate":1620972081211,"gmtModify":1620972081211,"author":{"id":"3551672667922083","authorId":"3551672667922083","name":"杂烩饭大人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40e776714b41b7e98249e67e45acd8c5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"这个CPI对普通人生活无影响","listText":"这个CPI对普通人生活无影响","text":"这个CPI对普通人生活无影响","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198564399","repostId":1148551338,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":198560335,"gmtCreate":1620971424227,"gmtModify":1634194854251,"author":{"id":"3568795433177386","authorId":"3568795433177386","name":"Iris俊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ec47da6583a1a9119da0bac90adb70","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"今年的股市，好事多磨。","listText":"今年的股市，好事多磨。","text":"今年的股市，好事多磨。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198560335","repostId":1148551338,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":198251481,"gmtCreate":1620964046943,"gmtModify":1634194907938,"author":{"id":"3554427882058339","authorId":"3554427882058339","name":"garyyue88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4406e230703c6f02e712c59db56ad4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] 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