eBay: No Longer Sleepy

seekingalpha2021-03-18

Summary eBay forecasts massive Q1 growth. The company is now benefitting from certifiable products via internal work and third-party services. The platform saw trading card transactions surge over ...

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精彩评论

StocKing
2021-03-18
StocKing
S
FanOfJPow
2021-03-18
FanOfJPow
Good
- 芳芳芳子:
  sleeping
- FanOfJPow:
  Comment
- 芳芳芳子:
  😴
- FanOfJPow:
  🤭
Iinus
2021-03-18
Iinus
Who uses eBay ?
- LeeWan:
  👋🏻
Raz
2021-03-18
Raz
Nice
- Smokeouts:
  Lol

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The company faces tough comps starting in Q2 which makes the business difficult to evaluate, providing an opportunity for alert investors. My investment thesis remains very bullish on the stock as new management pushes forward with aggressive initiatives.\nBooming Business\nDespite the end of many virus lockdowns and travel perking up, eBay still predicted Q1 revenues to surge by up to 40% on an organic basis. The company predicts revenues approaching the $3 billion range bolstered by managed payments and advertising, leading to the EPS topping $1.\nSource: eBay Q4'20 presentation\nThe online marketplace had recently become a stagnant place to sell goods, but eBay has recently seen a surge in usage of their auction system to trade certifiable assets. As an example, the trading card category grew 142% during the year as investors and collectors rediscovered cards during the lockdowns and sold 4 million more cards during 2020.\nSource: State of Trading Cards report\neBay offers the perfect auction system for the sale of assets such as trading cards and sneakers. Other auction sites exist for premium items, but eBay offers the biggest platform of buyers and the ease of use. Not to mention, the website was easily able to sell multiple cards selling for in excess of $500K such as the 1996 Topps Chrome Refractor Kobe Bryant rookie card.\nWhether via authentication services for watches and sneakers and certified refurbished items on the platform or third-party grading services such as PSA for sports cards, eBay now benefits from verifiable item quality allowing the easier flow of substantial auction amounts. In the trading card world, eBay allows for raw cards to easily transact in a buyer beware environment while also allowing for higher dollar volumes on cards with official grades. The gross merchandise volumes surge once moving to certifiable goods.\nThese higher end products also perfectly funnel into the promoted listing advertising product. The company saw promoted listing revenues soar to $215 million in the quarter, up 60% from last Q4. The product allows these high-end collectible products stand out from the crowd making the platform just as attractive as high-end auction houses such as Goldin Auctions. Not to mention, most eBay trading card sellers utilize social media as a way to ensure listings aren't lost in the crowd.\nOn the earnings call, the company discussed how the benefits of these categories spread beyond purchases for the certified products. For sneakers, buyers purchased on average $2,500 worth of goods on the platform with only 20% coming from the sneakers category. Similar to the sports cards, the ability to attract a buyer with an item where eBay is the category leader builds the whole platform.\nBuyback Machine\nWhile the market was complaining about ill-timed stock buybacks in other areas such as airlines and banks, eBay successfully repurchased billions worth of shares when the stock traded much lower. Going back to 2014, the online marketplace has consistently spent as much as $2.5 billion annually to repurchase shares of a stock that traded below $40 for the whole period until recently.\nData by YCharts\nThe company spent $5.1 billion on share buybacks last year at an average price of $41.31 amounting to over 10% of the outstanding stock. When combined with a current dividend yield of 2.6%, eBay has a net payout yield of 14%. The yield combines the dividend yield and the net stock buyback yield.\nData by YCharts\nWhether lucky or not, the BOD agreed to repurchase tons of stock heading into the big boom of COVID-19 lockdowns when everybody went online to buy/sell goods including sneakers and sports cards. The company has another $6 billion authorized for share buybacks.\nIn addition, the closing of theClassifieds sale to Adevinta (OTCPK:ADEVF) will bring in $2 billion in net cash plus 540 million shares in the company for a value approaching $11 billion now. eBay will own a nearly $9 billion stake in the company after the close.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that eBay faces tough comps this year starting in Q2. Over the long term, the company is now on a different growth trajectory by working to improve the main function of the platform by allowing buyers/sellers to now transact with confidence.\nAt $60, the stock only trades at 12.5x 2022 EPS estimate. Ultimately, eBay heads higher as the company is no longer the sleepy marketplace of the last decade.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":327028934,"gmtCreate":1616041159028,"gmtModify":1703496768146,"author":{"id":"3567718913207982","authorId":"3567718913207982","name":"StocKing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7085474f693ba246cba305df32163a9d","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567718913207982","authorIdStr":"3567718913207982"},"htmlText":"S","listText":"S","text":"S","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327028934","repostId":1148302917,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":327032916,"gmtCreate":1616037552635,"gmtModify":1703496715961,"author":{"id":"3574784818260396","authorId":"3574784818260396","name":"FanOfJPow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca91f9be17312fa7d5a41957afef8050","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574784818260396","authorIdStr":"3574784818260396"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327032916","repostId":1148302917,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3822881,"gmtCreate":1616037811819,"gmtModify":1635752813070,"authorId":3577247465509612,"author":{"id":3577247465509612,"idStr":"3577247465509612","authorId":3577247465509612,"name":"芳芳芳子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117ac0e359e1638481a1fa775d58bbde","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":327032916,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>sleeping</u>","text":"<u>sleeping</u>","html":"<u>sleeping</u>"},{"id":3822891,"gmtCreate":1616037904882,"gmtModify":1635752812325,"authorId":3574784818260396,"author":{"id":3574784818260396,"idStr":"3574784818260396","authorId":3574784818260396,"name":"FanOfJPow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca91f9be17312fa7d5a41957afef8050","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":327032916,"type":1,"supId":3822881,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Comment</u>","text":"<u>Comment</u>","html":"<u>Comment</u>"},{"id":3832457,"gmtCreate":1616118999602,"gmtModify":1635752341459,"authorId":3577247465509612,"author":{"id":3577247465509612,"idStr":"3577247465509612","authorId":3577247465509612,"name":"芳芳芳子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117ac0e359e1638481a1fa775d58bbde","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":327032916,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"😴","text":"😴","html":"😴"},{"id":3832463,"gmtCreate":1616119023915,"gmtModify":1635752340851,"authorId":3574784818260396,"author":{"id":3574784818260396,"idStr":"3574784818260396","authorId":3574784818260396,"name":"FanOfJPow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca91f9be17312fa7d5a41957afef8050","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":327032916,"type":1,"supId":3832457,"prevId":0,"content":"🤭","text":"🤭","html":"🤭"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":327039331,"gmtCreate":1616037175423,"gmtModify":1703496709858,"author":{"id":"3554042150050333","authorId":"3554042150050333","name":"Iinus","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554042150050333","authorIdStr":"3554042150050333"},"htmlText":"Who uses eBay ?&nbsp;","listText":"Who uses eBay ?&nbsp;","text":"Who uses eBay 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