Apple: The Real Player In Autonomous Vehicles

Seeking Alpha2021-12-29

SummaryApple has now officially been working on autonomous vehicle technology and they have a special advantage over other tech giants developing the same technologies.As Tesla will certainly hold an ...

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SeC
2021-12-30
SeC
🚗🚗🚗
limmeiyu
2021-12-29
limmeiyu
Woohoo
- Chibichibi:
  Nice

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Leveraging this will provide them the opportunity to quickly scale up - whether they end up releasing just the tech for autonomous driving or their own car, independently or in partnership with auto manufacturers.As a result, even though I've been slightly bearish on Apple's near-term prospects due to valuation concerns as well as what I predict will be a slower upgrade cycle, the company's long term prospects, on which I am bullish, are heavily reliant on new tech such as this one hitting the market somewhere between 2025 and 2030 in order to aid the company's long term growth.Tesla Advantage Breeds Apple OpportunityFor the sake of this argument, let's say that tomorrow morning we all wake up and the federal government and regulators have fully approved self-driving, or autonomous, driving technologies. What that means is that virtually all the vehicles on the road today, with several exceptions, won't be immediately equipped to handle that tech but Tesla vehicles will. So the real question is how fast can any given company ramp up production of self-driving tech adaptable vehicles and how fast can they deploy them.For the first several months, there's no doubt that Tesla will have a monopoly on this market based on the sheer number of vehicles they have on the road right now with those capabilities but the real question becomes who will be able to deploy this tech to capable vehicles the fastest. My answer is Apple.Apple, as we've seen over the past few years, has a strong and large global base of loyal customers who like their products and enjoy their interconnectivity. This means that if one of them owns an iPhone and a MacBook, chances are that they'll get smart home devices made or adaptable by Apple - driving what I believe will be a big growth avenue for them in the IoT (internet of things) space.The same will happen with autonomous vehicle tech. Apple currently has ambitions to deploy a fully autonomous all-electric vehicle in 4 years, by 2025. This means that the actual tech will likely be around sooner and it remains unclear if or who they will end up working with to make the actual car, which leads me to think of 2 scenarios.Apple's Deployment OptionsThe company's first scenario is to develop the vehicle with an established automobile manufacturer. There have been rumors in the past that Apple can use its massive cash pile to outright buy a company like Ford (F), however ridiculous that may sound. But the more likely path, which according to Seeking Alpha News Editor Clark Schultzhas become general consensus, is for them to partner with a company like Ford or General Motors (GM) to develop and manufacture the car with their technology.In this scenario, in theory, their technology being available earlier than 2025 can mean that part of the deal with the auto manufacturer can be to rapidly deploy this technology to their existing capable vehicles before or right after the launch of their own car, which can put a big dent in Tesla's advantage and make Apple a leading autonomous driving titan.The company's second scenario is to fully develop this all-electric vehicle on their own which will mean that they get to enjoy much higher margins and exclusivity among their consumer base. Sharing their loyal consumer base with an established manufacturer may increase revenues but it'll put a damper on their current exclusivity business model and margins will be much lower.In this scenario, the main advantage is what comes next. Uber (UBER), as an example, ordering 1M vehicles will have Apple with a pretty big liquidity advantage since they can use the massive cash flows from their other businesses to subsidize the sale of these vehicles and then find another way to capitalize off the already-deployed vehicles.Source: Technavio Industry ReportThis does create issues though, so let's dive into them.Risks Are Mostly RegulatoryThe most obvious regulatory risk for this new tech is that it may not happen for a long time yet. People have been saying \"fully autonomous cars are 5 years away\" for about 15 years now and there seems to always be a new roadblock on the way to widespread deployment. The other part of this is that with the new tech being so sensitive to these roadblocks, every and any accident will be scrutinized and put a hold on potential future manufacturing.Like the concord halt after 1 accident or the space shuttle holds or the more recent Tesla autonomous driver car crash that made international headlines despite it being multitudes safer than human driving.The main Apple investment related regulatory risk, however, is monopolistic. If Apple ends up developing an all-electric autonomous vehicle of their own, the chances are that it'll be putting a lot of these other established companies out of business and will very likely be forced by regulators to be spun off into a separate company. It remains unclear how that will be handled and whether Apple investors will be rewarded through a stake in the company, earnings from investment or what and that could happen before a bulk of the growth actually comes, which may hinder the ability to capture it.Another Long-Term Growth FactorApple will very clearly continue to sell millions and millions of iPhones as well as iPads, MacBook's and other devices for years and possibly decades to come, not to mention any other futuristic devices they or others come up with. But it's clear that the same growth we've seen over the past almost 20 years will not continue at the same rate from these devices alone.As I've written before, I believe that interconnected devices in the IoT space will enable longer term growth as it becomes more integrated into everyday life.But beyond that, the rumor and reality of the company's autonomous driving technologies and vehicle have been quite volatile in past years with the company closing down its operation and reopening it and now announcing that they've gone full throttle to develop this new tech and vehicle in the next 4 years.The reason why I am so bullish about their prospects to do so is that so far, it seems like industry experts have not fully appreciated the scope of which the company will be able to quickly deploy these technologies once they either become good enough for people to trust and / or when regulatory agencies adapt to this futuristic technology and allow for open adaptation on the roads.Right now, with forecasts for the global autonomous vehicle market calling for the industry to grow from $23 billion in 2020 to $65 billion by 2028, this represents just a 0.7% market share within the nearly $3.6 trillion industry. If we assume a 5% market share by 2030, which is where I believe the figure is going to be given the adaptation in local global cities and communities, that represents a market of roughly $200 billion by 2030, which is higher than current forecasts by nearly double.I'm not going to venture what Apple's market share will be in 2030 given all the uncertainty within this industry but it's clear to me that industry experts are underestimating how fast companies like Tesla and Apple can deploy these technologies and how much demand there will be once they pass the final regulatory and usage hurdles, which industry experts expect by 2030.Long-Term Bullish Stance RemainsThem venturing into this yet untapped and massive growth potential industry will help sustain the company's growth in the longer run and their ability to deploy fast to a loyal customer base if a main reason I continue to be bullish on the company's long term prospects despite a neutral to slightly bearish short term one.This article was written by Pinxter Analytics.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":692040208,"gmtCreate":1640805766193,"gmtModify":1640805766599,"author":{"id":"3582371848241817","authorId":"3582371848241817","name":"SeC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a226cf90d6854e9178341c90697ce373","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"🚗🚗🚗","listText":"🚗🚗🚗","text":"🚗🚗🚗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692040208","repostId":1148298060,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":696743261,"gmtCreate":1640780335477,"gmtModify":1640780335560,"author":{"id":"3577177238103321","authorId":"3577177238103321","name":"limmeiyu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a291c3f4febfffcfc7cc5eaa72cdd4f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Woohoo","listText":"Woohoo","text":"Woohoo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696743261","repostId":1148298060,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7135039,"gmtCreate":1640780610171,"gmtModify":1640780610205,"authorId":3582020670131796,"author":{"id":3582020670131796,"authorId":3582020670131796,"name":"Chibichibi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/671a41a5ed2aa68a8f1cfd3e8d82402a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":696743261,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice","text":"Nice","html":"Nice"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":26,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.26.2","shortVersion":"4.26.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1148298060"}