Nvidia: Data Center Will Dominate, But I'll Wait At These Prices

Seeking Alpha2021-12-22

Summary Nvidia's business and technology is second to none and the company has proven it can create and lead multiple markets. Data Center is set to take the reins in terms of revenue and is what ...

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精彩评论

BlueDaisy
2021-12-22
BlueDaisy
Like this one. Waiting for the right price.
ivanlam
2021-12-22
ivanlam
[smile]
- ivanlam:
  😄
WBT13
2021-12-22
WBT13
👍
Minz98
2021-12-22
Minz98
Please like
- Greg2021:
  done
Blueman13
2021-12-22
Blueman13
One to watch
- WBT13:
  👍
Huatheng
2021-12-22
Huatheng
Like pls, thanks.
- newtoUS:
  k

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this division drives gross margins.\nBut the stock is pricing in a long runway of growth and won't achieve it in the timeframe needed to justify the valuation.\nI'm content holding here but will add at $264 and below.\n\nMikhail Konoplev/iStock via Getty Images\nIt's hard to find a company able to dominate one field in several markets. However, you can surely find companies dominating one field in one market. For example, Netflix (NFLX) dominates the streaming field in movies/shows, but not live sports or video games. Finding a company dominating in one area, such as computing power, while doing so in different markets like gaming, data center, and professional rendering is hard to come by. But, NVIDIA (NVDA) fits the bill quite nicely. Its field of specialized computing power has become unmatched, growing revenue at outsized rates by creating new technology and use cases. This is driving accelerating growth which is being rewarded handsomely in the market as its Data Center division prepares to take the company's reins. But even so, I can't justify paying for it at these lofty valuations.\nDon't get me wrong, I'm not only an avid Nvidia bull - with the record to prove it - but have also done very well investing in it. It has become one of my largest stock returns on a percentage basis in my investing career. And, as I will get to shortly, Nvidia's dominance is not set to wane anytime soon. But, even still, building a position above $300 has a lot more risk embedded in it as growth rates will have to extend higher for longer to match the valuation.\nGreat Business Strength On Two Fronts\nNvidia beating estimates and raising guidance is nothing new over the last several quarters. What is interesting, though, is its ability to continue growing the Gaming division during supply constraint times and seasonally weak quarters. This is apparent in the company's ability to grow Gaming revenue by 5.2% quarter-over-quarter in FQ3. Management expects this strength to continue, though. According to it, Gaming and Data Center will drive sequential growth for FQ4.\n\nWe expect sequential growth to be driven by datacenter and gaming more than offsetting a decline in CMP.\n\n\n Nvidia CFO,FQ3 Earnings Call\n\nThe key part is the growth in Data Center is outpacing the growth of Gaming over the last few quarters. As a result, I won't be surprised if Data Center matches or exceeds Gaming revenue for the first time since FQ2 '21 in the current quarter (FQ4 '22). And that's because Data Center growth has picked up over the last two quarters, exceeding Gaming's sequential growth.\n(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's FQ3 '22 Quarterly Revenue Trend)\nAs the quarter-over-quarter lines on the secondary axis show, Data Center has accelerated growth since FQ4 '21, while Gaming growth has slowed since FQ1 '22. The large growth in FQ2 '21 has to do with the Mellanox acquisition, and because the growth I'm outlining starts in FQ4 '21, it becomes independent of Mellanox as the comparisons are Q/Q and not Y/Y. This is especially true after three quarters of nominal sequential growth between FQ3 '21 and FQ1 '22.\nNow, I don't expect Data Center to grow sequentially at 24% or more in FQ4 '22, but I do expect it to grow faster than Gaming. Based on what we see from recent earnings from other companies like Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL), data center looks to be very robust heading into the end of the year. As a result, my estimates have 14% Data Center growth and 5% Gaming growth (Q/Q). While this is a deceleration for both divisions, I've left room for Data Center to make up the $35M difference in my calculations between it and Gaming for the crown of the company, should the overall quarter outperform my estimate.\nDigging further, notice which division's Q/Q growth aligns with gross margins. And, more precisely, the makeup of Data Center's revenue share between it and Gaming is what is driving gross margin trends (calculated as (DC)/(DC+Gaming)), as shown below. Data Center moving into the number one position is exactly what investors should want as it drives gross margins higher. The Omniverse and Metaverse story aligns perfectly with a more significant Data Center division. And it helps Nvidia has been pushing for Data Center growth over the last several years, well before the Mellanox acquisition was announced in 2019, because the company is ahead of the curve needed in the tech industry to be ready for metaverse demands.\n(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's Quarterly Press Releases)\nThese are all great reasons why Nvidia is performing well on the business front and will continue to do so. There is assured strength in both of its main markets and is only seeing increasing, strong demand for GPUs in the data center and PC. As far as Nvidia's business goes, it's one of my favorites and has the greatest potential for creating new use cases and end-market demand through its ever-improving technology.\nWhere Business Meets Stock\nThe points I just discussed are why the stock's valuation has skyrocketed over the last several months - it's pricing in this continued growth and margins of the Data Center. However, when is the valuation too much for the market to handle?\nData by YCharts\nWith the price-to-sales ratio near relatively historical highs, the market is saying it expects 50% revenue growth to continue over the next three years. This, therefore, means the market is expecting consensus estimates to rise pretty significantly over the next year or so. As a result, the company would have to hit slightly above the 'High' estimate shown below for 2023 and 2024 to justify the valuation.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThis isn't impossible for Nvidia, which has continued to raise the bar over the last two years, but getting to $49.50B in revenue in FY2024 (which is only a February 2023 beginning, as in a little over one year away) is not likely to happen without the ARM (ARMH) acquisition going through. At this point, it's not very likely it does, as there are mounting objections from all the key countries.\nAs I've already outlined, Nvidia's business is strong and has quite amazing potential to push technology further than it ever has and to capitalize on it richly. The question I have with the stock at or above a 30 P/S ratio is can it drive the same returns from here as it has up to this point? The company will have to prove it can outperform even more than its track record of raising guidance and then beating guidance by more than $1B (between the guidance raise and subsequent beat of consensus) per quarter to get to the lofty 2024 numbers needed.\nFinding A Level To Add At\nI originally shared these thoughts with my subscribers on November 24th, when the stock traded for $326 a share. The stock is now trading around $300, lower by 8%, and while this reduces risk, the stock is still riskier than I would prefer to add to my position. With high multiple stocks being targeted for selling over the last few weeks, Nvidia is a prime target for being hit similarly.\nThat being said, where am I comfortable to add?\nA 20 or below blended forward P/S ratio to start would significantly reduce risk while still granting Nvidia a multiple worthy of consistently high growth. This implies a share price of $210. I don't foresee the stock getting there unless the market fears instability for growth or we have a market correction. If you're an absolute risk-averse growth stock investor, there's your target.\nFor those of us a little more risk-tolerant, I would put a P/S ratio of 20 against FY23's revenue estimates, which currently sits at $31.45B. This gives us a $248 target where one can add. Furthermore, adding a slight upside to the consensus estimates to account for steady beat and raises derives a $33.5B revenue estimate (still below the highest estimate for $34.40B) and equates to a share price of $264, a downside of 12% from Wednesday's levels.\nI'll Be Patient\nThis doesn't mean I'm not constructive on the stock - perhaps it continues to move higher and estimates are raised over the next several months, in which case, I'm glad I'm holding. But that's exactly it; I'm holding my current position and looking to opportunistically add on dips if the market allows it. I'm bullish on the company but don't prefer the risk dished out by the current valuation.\nI look forward to adding if the opportunity arises, but won't be upset if the stock continues higher.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":691827301,"gmtCreate":1640170705386,"gmtModify":1640170707496,"author":{"id":"3582677971530678","authorId":"3582677971530678","name":"BlueDaisy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0747094283743978b62fb8b1ee2cf44c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582677971530678","authorIdStr":"3582677971530678"},"htmlText":"Like this one. Waiting for the right price.&nbsp;","listText":"Like this one. Waiting for the right price.&nbsp;","text":"Like this one. Waiting for the right price.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691827301","repostId":1148139257,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":691831090,"gmtCreate":1640161923704,"gmtModify":1640161923994,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691831090","repostId":1148139257,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7075693,"gmtCreate":1640161931072,"gmtModify":1640161931100,"authorId":3582016577975526,"author":{"id":3582016577975526,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorId":3582016577975526,"name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":691831090,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"😄","text":"😄","html":"😄"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":691807265,"gmtCreate":1640158963756,"gmtModify":1640158967047,"author":{"id":"3573351657200487","authorId":"3573351657200487","name":"WBT13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32eff74d0ce173f7e10df861c0ee416","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573351657200487","authorIdStr":"3573351657200487"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691807265","repostId":1148139257,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":691801870,"gmtCreate":1640157811998,"gmtModify":1640157812101,"author":{"id":"3582803159303555","authorId":"3582803159303555","name":"Minz98","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d2093834aabec0c8de1bff4779af70e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582803159303555","authorIdStr":"3582803159303555"},"htmlText":"Please like&nbsp;","listText":"Please like&nbsp;","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691801870","repostId":1148139257,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7075384,"gmtCreate":1640158454913,"gmtModify":1640158454950,"authorId":3568957285760850,"author":{"id":3568957285760850,"idStr":"3568957285760850","authorId":3568957285760850,"name":"Greg2021","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":691801870,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>done</u>","text":"<u>done</u>","html":"<u>done</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":691800924,"gmtCreate":1640157184275,"gmtModify":1640157184792,"author":{"id":"3551240289585145","authorId":"3551240289585145","name":"Blueman13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23efe343c897f3547114a2af3018369c","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3551240289585145","authorIdStr":"3551240289585145"},"htmlText":"One to watch","listText":"One to watch","text":"One to watch","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691800924","repostId":1148139257,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7075415,"gmtCreate":1640158958818,"gmtModify":1640158958928,"authorId":3573351657200487,"author":{"id":3573351657200487,"idStr":"3573351657200487","authorId":3573351657200487,"name":"WBT13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32eff74d0ce173f7e10df861c0ee416","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":691800924,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":691177602,"gmtCreate":1640157112510,"gmtModify":1640157112941,"author":{"id":"3566905276489207","authorId":"3566905276489207","name":"Huatheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59738b973cad55d05e0eda9044f6331e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566905276489207","authorIdStr":"3566905276489207"},"htmlText":"Like 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