Unity Software's Metaverse Opportunity

Seeking Alpha2021-11-23

Summary Unity, after the acquisition of Weta, seems to be well-positioned to capture new revenue streams in the metaverse. Unity seems well-positioned to capture revenue streams from both building ...

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精彩评论

Williamw
2021-11-25
Williamw
Good
Lion91
2021-11-23
Lion91
Like for like
- Waeisiong:
  ok
btoh
2021-11-23
btoh
Ok
Holla
2021-11-23
Holla
Like pls
NeedMoneyPls
2021-11-23
NeedMoneyPls
Meta to the moon
- Aun9:
  K
- btoh:
  ok
KopiLim
2021-11-23
KopiLim
Ok

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(U) is uniquely positioned to monetize the metaverse megatrend with its leading game engine and Weta Digital acquisition. The rise of the metaverse should generate new revenue streams for the company to build digital infrastructure beyond the gaming vertical. In addition, Unity is also well positioned to participate in the NFT economy. Although the stock's high valuation may keep some investors on the sideline, investors should keep a close eye on this highly differentiated company.\nOpportunity in the metaverse is the main topic we will explore in this article. In addition, we will discuss U's latest earnings, business, financials, trading & valuation, and risks so readers can reach their own informed decision on the stock.\n(Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasted financials refers to consensus estimates and all historical financial data comes from the company.)\nEarnings\nWe will start by quickly going over the company's latest earnings to level-set everyone before moving to the main topic of considering the company's business fundamentals.\nU reported FY Q3 earnings (FY ending Dec) on 11/10/2021, resulting in the stock trading up 2.8% the day after earnings. Revenue grew 42.6% y/y to $286 million, beating consensus estimates by 5.7%. Gross margin came in at 80.9%, while operating margin came in at -4.2%, the same as a year ago. EPS for the quarter was -$0.06.\nRevenue growth for the quarter was driven by 973 customers who each generated over $100,000 of revenue over the past year, who collectively make up 77% of total sales. Net expansion rate for the quarter was a strong 142%, meaning existing customers drove nearly all of the growth in Q3.\nBusiness\nSource: Unity\nIn the beginning, the company's game engine was focused on creating free-to-play mobile titles monetized via ads. Later, the game engine was enhanced to serve customers interested in building 3D content outside of gaming. Today, Unity is the world's leading platform for creating and operating interactive, real-time 3D content, serving game developers and other creators.\nThe company operates under two main segments: Create and Operate. Create is the company's game creation engine and contributes to 30% of the company's revenue.Over 50% of mobile games are built on its enterprise SaaS platform, more than five times the market share of the closest competitor. Operate is the company's ad and monetization business, which contributes to 60% of total revenue. With 3.4 billion monthly active users, the company has one of the world's largest ad networks.\nWeta Digital\nSource: Weta Digital\nIn Q3 2021, the company surprised investors with the acquisition of Weta Digital, a visual effects technology company, for $1.6B. Weta is expected to add $70M of revenue in 2022, implying a sales multiple of 23x -- this is a rich multiple but well below Unity's own 36x forward sales multiple.\nThe idea behind the acquisition is to expand U's addressable market into the film industry and beyond and close a technology gap with Epic's Unreal Engine. Weta's core business is creating VFX in film, or digital images on screen, including theLord of the Ringsfranchise. The estimated incremental TAM of this acquisition is around $10 billion.\nWeta's tools could help U expand beyond its dominant position in gaming, targeting new verticals such as NFTs, film production, CAD, and e-commerce. In addition, integration of Weta into U's platform should give game developers access to Weta's art assets, creating a new stream of revenue for the company.\nAfter the acquisition of Weta, U seems to be well-positioned to capture new revenue streams in the metaverse: digital infrastructure and NFTs. Before we get into U's competitive position, let's go over the rise of the metaverse and NFTs.\nThe Age of The Metaverse\nSource: Unity\nWhen Mark Zuckerberg announced that Facebook (FB) would become a metaverse company, it shook the tech industry. Facebook, renamed Meta, has staked its reputation and billions of dollars to help transition the world from mobile-first to metaverse-first. An old concept with origins in science fiction, the metaverse is now fully embraced by the mainstream.\nWhile there are many complex definitions of the metaverse, one simple but still accurate way to think about the metaverse is that it is a more immersive and interoperable internet. The metaverse should be a seamless connection of multiple \"digital universes,\" for example, \"walking\" out of a Facebook hangout room and right into a Fortnite battle while wearing the same digital shoes, which you own as an NFT.\nA more immersive and seamless internet should lead to more time spent on the internet, and with more time spent comes more economic activities conducted on the internet. While most of us are accustomed to shopping and banking online, few of us have the same sense of ownership of our digital assets as our physical assets. Without a sense of ownership, the vision of a truly immersive internet -- or the metaverse -- cannot come true. This is because people will likely reject the idea of having no ownership of a metaverse in which they spend so much of their waking hours.\nI believe blockchain technology is catalyzing the transformation of the internet from web 2.0 to web 3.0 (or \"web3\"). What makes web3 different is that it introduces digital property rights that depend on code rather than on the arbitrary decisions of governments across the globe. Both fungible and non-fungible tokens will be important building blocks of web3.\nAn NFT is a unique and non-interchangeable unit of data stored on a blockchain. This data unit could represent anything: a digital gaming item such as a sword, a picture, a video, birth certificate, or title to your home. The NFT as we know it today is a bearer instrument, which means whoever holds the private keys owns the data.\nIn my view, NFTs will rise concurrently with the metaverse because they are codependent. NFTs need the metaverse's digital infrastructure for distribution, and the digital infrastructure needs NFTs to imbue the metaverse with a sense of ownership for users.\nUnity's Metaverse Opportunities\nUnity seems well-positioned to capture revenue streams from both buildings, the digital infrastructure of the metaverse, and participating in the NFT economy.\nU's core offering is its game engine, which offers digital infrastructures which developers can assemble and build on top of to create the digital worlds of their imagination. This is difficult to describe in writing, so I recommend that readers who are confused about this point watch how developers use Unity to develop games. For example, this short YouTube tutorial clearly illustrates how developers utilize Unity to create video games.\nSource: Weta Digital\nSimilarly, Weta Digital offers tools to build digital infrastructure for films using VFX technology. Films are different from games in that films offer a much more realistic visual experience than games -- think Lord of the Rings (a film) compared to the typical gaming environment such as Fortnite. Combining Unity's game engine and Weta's VFX technology, the company now has the technology stack to create hyper-realistic digital environments for the metaverse. Again, this concept may be easier to grasp with a video.\nAfter U integrates Weta, we expect Weta's VFX tools and art library to be available to U content creators, who could leverage these combined capabilities to craft digital assets that could be tokenized and sold as NFTs. While this is speculative, both the technology and market already exist for U to tap into the rapidly growing NFT economy.\nToday, the total value of NFTs issued on the Ethereum (ETH-USD) blockchain alone has already exceeded $14 billion. In 3Q21, NFT trading volume hit $10.7 billion, up 704% from the previous quarter. Needless to say, the NFT market is already big and in hypergrowth mode.\n60% of U's revenue comes from its Operate segment, primarily through revenue-share and usage-based models. This segment offers two monetization products: Unity Ads and Unity IAP (in-app purchases). We can easily envision NFTs turbocharging the Unity IAP business by enabling ownership of digital assets which could live in gaming and other digital universes.\nFinancial\nSell-side consensus is forecasting revenues to grow by 41.1% this fiscal year, reaching $1.1 billion, and by 28.4% the following fiscal year, reaching $1.4 billion. The 28% growth in FY22 seems conservative, so if U doesn't beat this number significantly, I have a hard time seeing the stock justifying its rich multiple (see Trading & Valuation section).\nConsensus is forecasting EBIT margin to expand by 52 basis points this fiscal year to -6.0% and expand by 358 basis points the following fiscal year to -2.5%. Going forward, consensus is forecasting EPS to improve to -$0.26 this fiscal year and to improve to -$0.15 the following fiscal year. Note that this is a non-GAAP EPS number, which excludes large amounts of stock-based compensation (standard practice for fast-growing software businesses). The consensus GAAP EPS number is -$1.56 for 2022 vs. -$0.15 non-GAAP.\nWhile it does not appear there is any hope for the company to turn profitable in the next few years. However, free cash flow is expected to turn positive in 2023 with a nearly immaterial $0.7M. If this occurs, the business will likely be viewed as \"self-funding,\" which should help sentiment. However, FCF does not take into account shareholder dilution and repurchase expenses related to stock-based compensation.\nWith net cash of $626 million, U has a great balance sheet. The company is expected to burn around $180M in cash in 2021 and 2022 before turning FCF positive, leaving plenty of cash for the company to work with.\nTrading & Valuation\nU currently trades at around $177 per share, a market value of $51 billion, and an enterprise value of $50 billion. The stock does not pay a dividend compared to a dividend yield of 1.2% for the S&P 500.\nThe sentiment is bullish on the stock, though it seems to be a target for short-sellers. U performed very well over the past year, returning 30% points more than the S&P 500, or 63.1% in absolute return. The stock is trading 52% above its 200-day moving average, 16% below its 52-week high of $210.00, and 133% above its 52-week low of $76.00 per share. However, short interest is high at 6.8%, reflecting some skepticism from professional investors.\nUsing consensus estimates for next fiscal year's results (FY2), U is currently trading at an EV/Sales multiple of 36.3, a 1,240% premium to the S&P 500. Since EBIT and EPS are expected to be negative, we will only use the EV/Sales metric.\n36x forward sales is very rich and bakes in a tremendous amount of optimism. Consensus sales growth for FY23 through FY24 only ranges from 27-28%, which I believe is well below buy-side expectations. In other words, if U doesn't beat consensus significantly, the stock will likely underperform. However, judging from strong growth from previous quarters, including the 43% y/y revenue growth in Q3, and the increasing demand for Unity's platform, the company looks poised to beat forward growth estimates.\nUnity's EV/Sales metric has ranged from a low of 20x to a high of 45x, with a large amount of volatility. In my view, this is a sign that the market is still trying to reach a consensus on how to appropriately value the stock. Given the stock's recent run-up, I believe it will be prudent to wait for a better entry point, such as when the market's enthusiasm for the metaverse gets supplanted by the next \"hot thing\". I will revisit when the stock trades around a 25x EV/Sales multiple.\nRisks\nWhile the vision for the metaverse is exciting, we are very early days in its evolution. The addressable market for the metaverse is still being defined, and business models are being tested. This leads to little visibility for individual companies trying to establish a position in this emerging industry.\nWhile Unity looks like it is well-positioned for the rise of the metaverse, the stock trades at a nose bleed valuation. In addition, the company isn't expected to be profitable in the near to medium term. Given the lack of support from free cash flow, Unity's EV/Sales multiple is at risk of being re-rated significantly lower when the company hits a speed bump. Thus, the stock may only be appropriate for investors with a high-risk tolerance.\nUnity's game engine faces competition from Epic's Unreal engine at the high-end, Roblox (RBLX) at the low end, and proprietary in-house platforms. Each of the three major competitors has its advantages and disadvantages. For example, Unity seems to have the upper hand in ease-of-use, mobile games, and AR/VR capabilities, while Unreal has the upper hand in complex gameplay, console games, and HD graphics. However, it is more difficult to predict the relative competitive advantages each company will enjoy in the rapidly emerging metaverse.\nThe majority of Unity's revenues comes from game developers who develop mobile games distributed on Alphabet's (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Apple's (AAPL) app stores. While this isn't an immediate concern, investors should know Unity's dependence on these two tech giants.\nTakeaway\nAfter the acquisition of Weta, Unity seems to be well-positioned to capture new revenue streams in the metaverse. The company is poised to play a role in building the digital infrastructure of the metaverse and play a meaningful in the emerging NFT economy. However, the stock's very high valuation and current hype around the metaverse are cause for concern. Given the lack of profitability, high valuation, and lack of near-term visibility, I will continue to watch this very compelling company on the 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