单月暴跌近14%！美国科技股上次这么跌的时候雷曼刚倒闭

华尔街见闻2022-04-30

作者：韩旭阳美国科技股正在逐步逼近悬崖的边缘，走势岌岌可危。由于投资者押注美联储加息并为经济增长放缓做准备，大型科技公司的财报业绩也令人大跌眼镜，4月份以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌了13.3%，创下2008年金融危机以来最大月度跌幅。在经历疫情期间的“井喷式”增长后，美股基准指数正纷纷陷入技术性熊市，令市场叫苦不迭。美国银行的分析师将投资者周五的情绪总结为“非常糟糕”。受亚马逊和苹果令人失望的...

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精彩评论

刃下心_8588
2022-04-30
刃下心_8588
大跌就继续做啊，今年下半年做空就是捡钱
阳光小韭
2022-04-30
阳光小韭
我觉得，下个季度我们中概的财报也不会好看。一样受疫情动态清零影响，物流、消费力影响，各大电子商务营收都不会好看[流泪] 那到时候可是一堆炸弹一起
- 阳光小韭:
  不知道三个月后，扛不扛得住[捂脸]
- 土豆菜鸡:
  确实没有想象得那么乐观
- iamzhang:
  [微笑]
- Motheroftige:
  👍
- ghiblibli43:
  哈哈哈
Trump Dad
2022-04-30
Trump Dad
中国跌这么多，那不是在地狱深处啊😃😃😃😃
- wl_6373:
  才开始
Artemys
2022-04-30
Artemys
慢慢买入点，五月继续空它

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报告其YouTube 广告收入远逊预期、环比剧减20%，收入录得两年来最慢增速。亚马逊和谷歌上一次出现这种大幅抛售还是在2008年全球金融危机，当时借款人拖欠住房贷款，市场泡沫最终破灭，包括雷曼兄弟在内的许多顶级金融机构都倒闭了。随后华尔街进行了一系列大规模援助。本次财报季对于大型科技股来说，表现好坏参半。Facebook报告的利润好于预期，但预测第二季度的销售额可能会比去年同期下降。苹果财报显示，今年第一季度，苹果创造了成立四十多年来最佳的非节假日所在季度表现。但即使盈利和收入比华尔街预期更为强劲增长，但苹果也承认，无法摆脱疫情持续带来的供应链干扰，供应链短缺和中国工厂停工可能使其第二季度的损失高达80亿美元。俄乌冲突也增加了负面影响，在一季度较去年末增长明显放缓后，这些负面还将持续施压公司业绩。苹果股价周五下跌3.7%。FactSet的数据显示，在已公布第一季度业绩的250多家标普成分股中，约80%的成分股公司盈利超过了预期。但仅亚马逊一家巨头就将该指数的收益同比增长率从略高于10%的水平拖累至7.1%。据英国金融时报报道，Legal & General Investment Management 首席投资官 Sonja Laud 表示：“科技行业的主导地位是一种美国独有的现象。”他还指出苹果、微软、亚马逊、特斯拉、Alphabet、Meta 和 Netflix 这几家科技巨头对标普500指数的贡献占了近四分之一。自2021年11月达到5万亿美元的峰值以来，FANG的股票市值已损失超过1.6万亿美元。“但欧洲的行业构成非常不同”，她补充说，“在商品和能源价格上涨的背景下，市场可以表现良好”。目前欧元兑美元上涨0.4%至1欧元兑1.05美元左右，但仍接近五年来的最低水平，因为交易员押注美联储在提高利率以对抗通胀方面的步伐将快于欧洲央行。市场押注美联储或将在6月加息75个基点尽管加息50个基点现在已成为下周FOMC会议的定局，交易员们现在押注美联储在6月加息75 个基点的可能性接近50%。如果成真，这将是美联储自1994年以来首次加息75个基点。这也使得投资者对股市的长期信心受挫，而美债收益率和美元指数大幅飙升。美联储“鹰王”圣路易斯联储主席布拉德一直是大幅加息的坚定支持者，他近日表示，不排除一次加息75个基点的可能。他在周一的讲话中指出，“超过50个基点的加息不是我的基本假设”，但历史表明，美联储大幅加息可以成功。他指出，美国经济活动在1994年政策转变之后出现“辉煌”时期。从1994年到1995年初，艾伦·格林斯潘领导下的美联储将利率从3%提高到了6%，实现了经济“软着陆”，通胀得到控制，经济持续强劲增长，实现了有史以来最长的10年扩张期。布拉德认为任何经济衰退的说法都为时过早。高盛首席经济学家 Jan Hatzius 预计，未来12个月美国经济衰退的几率约为15%；而未来两年美国经济衰退的可能性为35%。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克在接受CNBC采访时表示，美联储应该“以迅速的方式”加息，但至于75个基点，“实际上任何行动都是可能的，尽管我现在还没有真正考虑到这一点”。成长明星股和基金尤其惨痛本周，追踪亚马逊、特斯拉和英伟达等成长明星股的MSCI全球增长指数，从去年11月的峰值水平累计下跌了22%，这一跌幅使其处于技术性熊市。除了2020年3月疫情爆发时的短暂下跌外，这是自金融危机以来的最大下跌幅度。木头姐的旗舰 Ark Innovation 基金也是受害者之一，该基金主要押注成长型股票，持有 Coinbase、Block 和 Spotify 等股票。截至4月28日，该基金今年已累计下跌了48%。以大胆押注科技股而闻名的苏格兰抵押贷款信托今年累计下跌34%，主要押注科技股的老虎基金也受到了沉重打击。高盛一个由未盈利科技股组成的指数在去年初达到峰值，今年已下跌39%。加息的前景损害了低利润、高增长的科技股，使得这些公司未来的现金流看起来相对不那么有吸引力。与此同时，通胀飙升正在限制央行应对危机的能力。但一些投资者似乎不愿放手。据英国金融时报报道，巴克莱美洲股票衍生品联席主管 Brian Bost 表示，尽管近期出现抛售，但成长型股票仍受到投资者的欢迎：事实上，成长型股票的市盈率仍很高。如果某只股票下跌了50%，人们的自然心理是，不愿意在低点卖出。但我认为它们在未来还会下跌。一些对冲基金高管一直在为未来更艰难的时期做准备。英国金融时报看到的投资者文件显示，资产规模达1510亿美元的 Man Group 首席执行官 Luke Ellis 上月表示，他预计“股市将迎来艰难的一年”，而 CQS 创始人 Sir Michael Hintze 一直在做空未盈利的科技股。摩根士丹利写给客户的一份报告显示，美国对冲基金的净头寸——押注价格上涨减去押注价格下跌的头寸，接近5年来的最低水平。对冲基金正在调整以适应更为严峻的前景。例如，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)写给大宗经纪客户的一份报告显示，美国对冲基金的净头寸——押注价格上涨减去押注价格下跌的头寸——接近5年来的最低水平。在这种情况下，投资者很难从投资传统的成长型股票中获益。据英国金融时报报道，伦敦投资集团 Infinity Investment Partners 创始人 Michele Gesualdi表示：“这是一种新的市场机制，传统投资者将更难赚钱。”一些投资者利用俄乌危机后的市场抛售作为买入机会，但伦敦最大的对冲基金之一 Lansdowne Partners 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