跌宕起伏！一文读懂国庆假期全球市场发生了什么

华尔街见闻2021-10-07

摘要: 全球股市先抑后扬，大宗商品价格巨震，美股指数大幅波动，港股强势反弹。在这一周里，发生了什么？全球大类资产表现假期结束，A股四季度行情即将开启。这个国庆长假，国际市场经历了大幅波动，华尔街见闻统计了从10月1日开盘到今天下午6点，全球大类资产的表现。 10月1日至10月7日期间，截至发稿，全球股市表现分化，美股三大指数波动较大，最终小幅收涨，港股回调后暴涨；债市方面，全球主要国家债券...

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Read what happened in the global market during the National Day holiday","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/841444cc48372d479801f510403f44a6","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9},"content_text":"摘要: 全球股市先抑后扬，大宗商品价格巨震，美股指数大幅波动，港股强势反弹。在这一周里，发生了什么？\n\n全球大类资产表现\n假期结束，A股四季度行情即将开启。这个国庆长假，国际市场经历了大幅波动，华尔街见闻统计了从10月1日开盘到今天下午6点，全球大类资产的表现。\n10月1日至10月7日期间，截至发稿，全球股市表现分化，美股三大指数波动较大，最终小幅收涨，港股回调后暴涨；\n债市方面，全球主要国家债券收益率悉数上行，德、英、意10年国债利率上行2-5bp不等；\n美元指数略微上涨0.04%，离岸人民币兑美元贬值0.08%；\n大宗商品市场在普京发声后回落，布伦特原油抹去近一周涨幅；天然气和原油走势趋同，天然气主连一度大涨20%，但是随后俄罗斯宣布可能会加大供给，天然气价格出现回落；COMEX 黄金冲高回落，小幅上涨0.33%至1760.1 美元/盎司；富时A50期货走出V型走势，止跌反弹0.03%。\n\n\n发生了什么？国庆要闻速览\n1. 美国债务上限破冰，但预计博弈仍将继续\n美东时间10月6日（周三）午后，在拜登总统施压后，参议院共和党领袖米奇麦康奈尔 Mitch McConnell表示，将允许紧急债务上限延长至12月。这项协议将为在参议院进行程序性投票铺平道路，预计将在本周晚些时候最终通过。众议院仍需通过该法案，预计该法案将由拜登总统签署后成为法律。\n然而，华尔街见闻之前分析到：共和党表面上看起来是和民主党共同解决美国债务上限问题，实际上仍是初衷不改，想逼民主党用预算调节程序自己干。\n2. 最后时刻避免政府关门！美国国会通过政府融资法案：\n美国众议院以254票对175票通过政府融资议案，在资金耗尽之前将其发送给拜登总统。此前参议院以 65 票对 35 票首先通过了这项短期拨款法案，该法案旨在帮助政府在12月3日之前运行。\n3. 美贸易代表寻求与中方就经贸问题展开坦率对话\n据新华社，美国贸易代表戴琪4日表示，美方无意“激化”与中国的贸易紧张局势，努力与中国“重新连接”而非“脱钩”。美国政府以前处理对华经贸问题的手段未能解决美方根本关切，拜登政府将寻求以“全新、全面和务实”的方式处理对华经贸关系。\n4. 国内经济数据\n国泰君安覃汉团队对近期经济数据做出如下解读：①经济数据：9 月制造业PMI 指数跌破荣枯线，但企业预期并未大幅恶化。②地方专项债集中在11 月底前发行完毕，利率调整压力更加集中。③货币政策保持稳健：易纲行长表示“中国经济潜在增速仍有望维持在5%-6%区间，有条件实施正常货币政策”，债券市场需要对年内货币政策宽松力度保持谨慎。④高频数据：票房收入和铁路发送旅客人次数据，较2020 年明显改善，但仍然低于疫情前的水平。\n对于国内服务类消费数据，兴业证券张启尧团队指出：国庆假期期间服务类消费整体复苏，电影票房规模超出市场预期，国庆档总票房（含预售）已突破40亿元；而旅游市场仍有较大修复空间，居民出游意愿提升但实际发送旅客数量同比则继续小幅回落，国内消费需求仍处于复苏当中。\n5. 默沙东披露新冠口服药中期试验结果：能够降低50%住院或死亡风险：\n美东时间10月1日周五，默沙东披露，其与合作伙伴Ridgeback生物治疗公司共同开发的口服抗新冠病毒试验性药丸，能够降低50%住院或死亡风险。\n6. 欧洲气荒愈演愈烈，普京发声\n俄罗斯总统普京在出席会议时表示，这一欧洲最大能源供应国准备好在价格飙升之际稳定能源市场，俄罗斯正在增加对欧洲的天然气供应。在他表示俄罗斯会增加天然气供应后，英国和荷兰天然气期货主力合约均两位数大跌，从同日稍早所创的历史新高回落，美国天然气期货跌超10%创年内最大跌幅，国际油价跌幅扩大至2%。\n\n7. OPEC+决定11月不扩大增产：\n10月4日周一，在当前全球能源供应紧张，进而大幅推升油需的背景下，以沙特和俄罗斯为首的OPEC+产油国联盟称11月将按原计划每月增产40万桶/日，即不会超量增产来缓解供应荒。\n8. 连涨15个月后，海运费突然掉头直下：\n近一周内，海运运费出现大幅下滑。有货运公司表示，从宁波港、上海港发往美国西海岸的海运费3天跌去了3个月的涨幅。\n9. 2021年诺贝尔奖揭晓\n\n2021年诺贝尔化学奖揭晓，本杰明·里斯特（Benjamin List）和大卫·麦克米伦（David W.C. MacMillan）因“在不对称有机催化方面的发展”被授予诺贝尔化学奖。\n2021年诺贝尔生理学奖或医学奖授予David Julius和Ardem Patapoutian，以表彰他们在人类感知疼痛和温度的机制研究方面所做出的贡献\n2021年诺贝尔物理学奖授予真锅淑郎 (Syukuro Manabe)、克劳斯·哈塞尔曼 (Klaus Hasselmann)以及乔治·帕里西 (Giorgio Parisi)，以表彰他们“对我们理解复杂物理系统的开创性贡献”。\n\n10. 特斯拉以及国内三大电动车新势力交付情况：\n10月2日周六，电动汽车制造商特斯拉表示，今年第三季度的全球汽车交付量达到241300辆，并再次打破了第二季度创下的201250辆的历史记录。其中，在第三季度， Model 3和Model 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