Tesla and Other EV Stocks Are Bouncing Back. That Doesn’t Mean the Bubble Won’t Pop.

Barrons2021-03-10

After abrutal selloff that lasted weeks, electric-vehicle investors were able to exhale on Tuesday as shares of those stocks rallied. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock rose almost 20% on Tuesday after a 37% ...

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精彩评论

cheryltanat
2021-03-11
cheryltanat
Sell now to get some profit first. Then monitor again.
sgric
2021-03-10
sgric
There isn't a bubble because some tech stocks are already delivering. It obvious which company I'm referring to
Poggki
2021-03-10
Poggki
It will drop again?
NSHuat
2021-03-10
NSHuat
Tesla is a cult, like why iPhones rely on brand rather than performance. EV-wise, China is leading the global industry through strong government policies and support. Entire fleets of cabs are EVs and such, relying on economies of scale. EVs are here to stay.Agree with article that pure EV companies has much more in terms of promise, AI, software compared to traditional auto companies.
- sonnylee:
  iPhone的cpu吊打所有安卓机，iPhone的软硬件，生态都是顶尖的
IsaacHuat93
2021-03-10
IsaacHuat93
Please like thanks
- IsaacHuat93:
  Please like and cOmment
- Acella:
  sure!
Rhythm88
2021-03-10
Rhythm88
Is EV ready a delusion? Heard and read that EV is really booming in China. May be friends of Tiger brokerage can confirm too. ☺️
- Hayz:
  EV stocks are overpriced in general, but I am vested because $$ stuck with no where to park. China already have EV (bus), as soon so many more on wheels.

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Other electric-vehicle stocks traded higher, too.NIO(NIO) shares gained 17% and Canoo(GOEV) jumped almost 10%.\nThe bulls are happy, but the bears aren’t buying it. Those in the latter camp are still calling electric-vehicle stocks a bubble and are looking for signs that it will pop.\n“The excitement around electric cars in recent months has had the hallmarks of a bubble,” wrote Gavekal Research’s Louis Gave in a Tuesday report. He published a list of bubble warning signs that includes, for starters allegations of fraud. Gave pointed toNikola(NKLA) as an example. In September, Short seller Hindenburg Researchaccused Nikola’s managementof misleading investors, a claim that Nikoladenies. The report has led to the exit of board chair Trevor Milton, an internal investigation, and a lower share price, among other things.\nAlso on Gave’s list are hubristic chief executives, a term he used to describe Tesla CEOElon Musk. Musk certainly generates a lot of buzz and some controversy. Even so,Musk has succeededin building a car company from scratch as well as sending astronauts to the International Space Station on a privately built rocket ship.\nGave also wrote there are “listings of dubious business model[s],” referring to companies with billion-dollar valuations andzero, or little, salesthat have merged with special acquisition companies, or SPACs. That list includesFisker(FSR), andLordstown Motors(RIDE).\nFinally, Gave said there is the math: “Valuations that assumed the kind of unit growth that seemed almost physically impossible to deliver.” For Gave, expected growth simply can’t keep up withbattery, semiconductor, andlithiumproduction.\nGave believes the bubble may be bursting. But that wasn’t his only point. His report was a warning to investors to lighten up on what he called “derivative plays” including battery and lithium suppliers as well as semiconductor companies that sell into the auto market. Three examples that fit that profile areContemporary Amperex Technology Co(300750.China),Livent(LTHM), andOn Semiconductor(ON). Those three stocks are up about 120% on average over the past 12 months.\nResearch Affiliates’Rob Arnottsounded even more bearish than Gave. In a report published Tuesday, he called electric vehicles a “big market delusion” because the stocks are all rising and falling together, despite the widely differing prospects of many firms. There will be winners and losers, according to Arnott, but the market isn’t differentiating.\nHe doesn’t sound upbeat on any potential winners, either. “In the highly competitive and capital-intensive auto industry, the January 2021 valuations of electric vehicle manufacturers are simply not sustainable over the long term,” wrote Arnott.\nArnott pointed out that electric-vehicle makers are worth roughly the same as the entire traditional automotive industry despite generating a tiny fraction of sales. “The EV phenomenon will not change the fact that the auto industry will remain highly competitive and capital intensive,” added Arnott. “Not every company can be a winner.”\nThat might be the case. Still,Amazon.com(AMZN) got its start inthe dot-com bubble.\nArnott and Gave have had the upper hand in the electric vehicle debate for a couple of weeks, but bulls are feeling better after Tesla’s rally on Tuesday. Shares rose formultiple reasons: The stock was upgraded by New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, February China deliveries demonstrated the global electric vehicle market remains healthy, and theNasdaq Compositerallied 3.7% as inflation fears subsided. The Nasdaq is home to many richly valued, high-growth companies Tesla. Higher inflation means higher interest rates, which makes it more expensive for companies to fund all that growth. Plus, because growth companies generate most of their cash flow years down the road, that cash is less valuable, relatively speaking, when investors can earn more interest on their money in the present day.\nThe debate won’t be settled soon and the bulls have other arguments, too. They say electric-vehicle companies grow faster than traditional automakers and deserve high valuation multiples. What’s more, for every electric vehicle that, say,General Motors(GM) sells, there is a gasoline-powered car that goes unsold. There is little net growth for a traditional automaker converting to an electric powertrain, so GM shouldn’t be valued like a growth stock. Finally, bulls argue there is anautonomous drivingcomponent to automotive valuation that the entire marketplace must wrestle with. It is possible that self-driving software can generate extra sales never realized before by all automakers.\nThere is a lot to consider. That makes one day’s gyrations even more difficult to interpret.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":321399534,"gmtCreate":1615392106328,"gmtModify":1703488469939,"author":{"id":"3576558451806203","authorId":"3576558451806203","name":"cheryltanat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43cc8fe83faade345cc7c942dc54d20a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576558451806203","authorIdStr":"3576558451806203"},"htmlText":"Sell now to get some profit first. Then monitor again.&nbsp;","listText":"Sell now to get some profit first. Then monitor again.&nbsp;","text":"Sell now to get some profit first. Then monitor again.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321399534","repostId":1143995568,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":323410583,"gmtCreate":1615366842442,"gmtModify":1703487932846,"author":{"id":"3575769796360828","authorId":"3575769796360828","name":"sgric","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/198d8594ee7383133c0f7a33a9a49909","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575769796360828","authorIdStr":"3575769796360828"},"htmlText":"There isn't a bubble because some tech stocks are already delivering. It obvious which company I'm referring to","listText":"There isn't a bubble because some tech stocks are already delivering. It obvious which company I'm referring to","text":"There isn't a bubble because some tech stocks are already delivering. It obvious which company I'm referring to","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323410583","repostId":1143995568,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":323494656,"gmtCreate":1615365381875,"gmtModify":1703487914874,"author":{"id":"3564876523975472","authorId":"3564876523975472","name":"Poggki","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96397c64f0a59449e5573036608f7d30","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564876523975472","authorIdStr":"3564876523975472"},"htmlText":"It will drop again?","listText":"It will drop again?","text":"It will drop again?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323494656","repostId":1143995568,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":323571237,"gmtCreate":1615361973429,"gmtModify":1703487879275,"author":{"id":"3574891375875901","authorId":"3574891375875901","name":"NSHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ca143e0b12123c7f22cfd406f688322","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574891375875901","authorIdStr":"3574891375875901"},"htmlText":"Tesla is a cult, like why iPhones rely on brand rather than performance.&nbsp;EV-wise, China is leading the global industry through strong government policies and support. Entire fleets of cabs are EVs and such, relying on economies of scale. EVs are here to stay.Agree with article that pure EV companies has much more in terms of promise, AI, software compared to traditional auto companies.&nbsp;","listText":"Tesla is a cult, like why iPhones rely on brand rather than performance.&nbsp;EV-wise, China is leading the global industry through strong government policies and support. Entire fleets of cabs are EVs and such, relying on economies of scale. EVs are here to stay.Agree with article that pure EV companies has much more in terms of promise, AI, software compared to traditional auto companies.&nbsp;","text":"Tesla is a cult, like why iPhones rely on brand rather than performance. EV-wise, China is leading the global industry through strong government policies and support. Entire fleets of cabs are EVs and such, relying on economies of scale. EVs are here to stay.Agree with article that pure EV companies has much more in terms of promise, AI, software compared to traditional auto companies.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323571237","repostId":1143995568,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3758969,"gmtCreate":1615365930223,"gmtModify":1615367406526,"authorId":3462517100189487,"author":{"id":3462517100189487,"idStr":"3462517100189487","authorId":3462517100189487,"name":"sonnylee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":323571237,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"iPhone的cpu吊打所有安卓机，iPhone的软硬件，生态都是顶尖的","text":"iPhone的cpu吊打所有安卓机，iPhone的软硬件，生态都是顶尖的","html":"iPhone的cpu吊打所有安卓机，iPhone的软硬件，生态都是顶尖的"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":323570818,"gmtCreate":1615361612034,"gmtModify":1703487875145,"author":{"id":"3574339928552137","authorId":"3574339928552137","name":"IsaacHuat93","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574339928552137","authorIdStr":"3574339928552137"},"htmlText":"Please like thanks","listText":"Please like thanks","text":"Please like thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323570818","repostId":1143995568,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3758663,"gmtCreate":1615361660307,"gmtModify":1635756481744,"authorId":3574339928552137,"author":{"id":3574339928552137,"idStr":"3574339928552137","authorId":3574339928552137,"name":"IsaacHuat93","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":323570818,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Please like and cOmment","text":"Please like and cOmment","html":"Please like and cOmment"},{"id":3759455,"gmtCreate":1615369875581,"gmtModify":1635756440729,"authorId":3563150446821026,"author":{"id":3563150446821026,"idStr":"3563150446821026","authorId":3563150446821026,"name":"Acella","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2712c4bb0bfbec4d2773e012189db3bc","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":323570818,"type":1,"supId":3758663,"prevId":0,"content":"sure!","text":"sure!","html":"sure!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":323541564,"gmtCreate":1615360665758,"gmtModify":1703487864607,"author":{"id":"3565560262275157","authorId":"3565560262275157","name":"Rhythm88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80f5501da2fa10a6c684b9c19b6117a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3565560262275157","authorIdStr":"3565560262275157"},"htmlText":"Is EV ready a delusion? Heard and read that EV is really booming in China. May be friends of Tiger brokerage can confirm too. ☺️","listText":"Is EV ready a delusion? Heard and read that EV is really booming in China. May be friends of Tiger brokerage can confirm too. ☺️","text":"Is EV ready a delusion? Heard and read that EV is really booming in China. May be friends of Tiger brokerage can confirm too. ☺️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323541564","repostId":1143995568,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3758637,"gmtCreate":1615361394812,"gmtModify":1635756482855,"authorId":3576709204489965,"author":{"id":3576709204489965,"idStr":"3576709204489965","authorId":3576709204489965,"name":"Hayz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87598e3b13004920f673918b320782e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":323541564,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"EV stocks are overpriced in general, but I am vested because $$ stuck with no where to park.&nbsp; China already have EV (bus), as soon so many more on wheels.","text":"EV stocks are overpriced in general, but I am vested because $$ stuck with no where to park.&nbsp; China already have EV (bus), as soon so many more on wheels.","html":"EV stocks are overpriced in general, but I am vested because $$ stuck with no where to park.&nbsp; China already have EV (bus), as soon so many more on wheels."}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1143995568"}