奥密克戎，压垮全球风险资产的“最后一根稻草”？

华尔街见闻2021-11-28

作者：韩旭阳 11月25日，南非科学家宣布发现新冠新变种菌株B.1.1529，该毒株导致南非豪登省的新增新冠病例数呈指数式增长，其远超德尔塔毒株的传染性以及更强的免疫逃逸能力引发全球关注。距离科学家宣布新病毒的发现仅两天，南非超90%的新增新冠案例均为其感染者。全球范围内，以色列、比利时和我国香港均发现了新变种毒株的感染者。而本次新病毒出现之际，恰逢市场预期美联储将于12月宣布加快taper...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3645984><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：韩旭阳\n11月25日，南非科学家宣布发现新冠新变种菌株B.1.1529，该毒株导致南非豪登省的新增新冠病例数呈指数式增长，其远超德尔塔毒株的传染性以及更强的免疫逃逸能力引发全球关注。\n距离科学家宣布新病毒的发现仅两天，南非超90%的新增新冠案例均为其感染者。全球范围内，以色列、比利时和我国香港均发现了新变种毒株的感染者。\n\n而本次新病毒出现之际，恰逢市场预期美联储将于12月宣布加快taper...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3645984\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3645984","article_id":"1143930033","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ec3d0dd1f01bca738ed37472f7e72a"],"rights":{"source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3645984","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143930033","pubTimestamp":1638089724,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"短期内可能对金融市场的风险偏好有较大压制。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Omicron, the \"last straw\" to crush global risky assets?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73e298e5ea1b0a7ba7fea21fde447339","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"作者：韩旭阳\n11月25日，南非科学家宣布发现新冠新变种菌株B.1.1529，该毒株导致南非豪登省的新增新冠病例数呈指数式增长，其远超德尔塔毒株的传染性以及更强的免疫逃逸能力引发全球关注。\n距离科学家宣布新病毒的发现仅两天，南非超90%的新增新冠案例均为其感染者。全球范围内，以色列、比利时和我国香港均发现了新变种毒株的感染者。\n\n而本次新病毒出现之际，恰逢市场预期美联储将于12月宣布加快taper。东吴证券认为，这在短期内可能对金融市场的风险偏好有较大压制。\n新病毒的市场影响如何？\n新变种毒株在南非的爆发以及向全球的蔓延引发了市场的恐慌，全球主要股市、国债收益率和大宗商品（尤其是原油）大幅下跌。东吴证券认为，在前期利空因素的累积下，疫情变异的消息可能是压垮全球风险资产的“最后一根稻草”。\n东吴证券指出，油价和10年期美债收益率下跌是疫情爆发的“标配”。在诸多利空因素的加成下，本次市场调整的幅度要明显大于Delta病毒爆发时。新变种毒株的出现使得市场对美联储的紧缩预期有所降温。\n\n\n对于之前累积的利空因素，东吴证券指出，具体包括以下几点：\n\n高通胀和供给约束下，全球经济的增长动能明显放缓。\n全球货币政策转向的速度开始加快，市场预期美联储很可能在12月议息会议上宣布加速taper；Delta病毒的冲击下欧洲部分国家已经重启封锁，而封锁的范围还在进一步扩大。\n对于原油来说， 美国等经济体的抛储信号和操作带来了额外的利空压力。\n交易层面，临近年终，此前获利颇丰的投资仓位在面临不确定性时会更加倾向于获利了结。\n\n对于市场参与者来说，东吴证券指出，接下来要重点关注新变种毒株奥密克戎的致病性和疫苗抗性。如果这些方面的严重性超预期，全球经济复苏的节奏可能再次被打断，或将导致美联储收紧的迫切性降低，冲击11月以来“激进”的市场紧缩预期。\n病毒可能加剧股市脆弱性\n早在2020年3月的第一波疫情爆发之前，市场上已经积累了大量泡沫。如今的状况也与当时类似，稳健的经济数据、企业强劲的盈利和美联储的宽松政策中，都使投资者纷纷持看涨观点。\n但目前的股市可能比2020年更具脆弱性。新病毒奥密克戎的出现使得各国政府加强了对来自南非人员的旅行限制，全球股市也纷纷下挫。\n奥密克戎传播的不确定性使标准普尔500指数在周五下跌了2.3%，这是今年2月以来的最大日跌幅，而年初至今这一指数已经上涨超过20%。这对一直对股市持看涨观点的投资者来说无疑是一个“警告”。\n\n交易员们也纷纷买入保护性期权，推动芝加哥期权交易所（Cboe）波动指数创下1月以来的最大涨幅。\n美国银行和EPFR Global的数据显示，2021年投资者向美国股票交易所交易基金(ETF)和多头基金输送了近9000亿美元的资金，超过过去19年的总和。\n据彭博报道，富达国际（Fidelity International）的全球宏观经济学家Anna Stupnytska表示，随着疫情蔓延和病毒新变种奥密克戎引发了市场担忧，投资者可能会被迫重新考虑他们的看涨观点：\n\n这有可能成为近期宏观和市场前景的一个游戏规则改变者——我们应该这样看待它。\n\n\n 对于市场来说，这个假日季可能会比投资者预期的更加动荡。\n\n但也有分析师提出了不同观点。事实上，新冠病毒并没有出现在华尔街分析师们对股市年度展望的风险预测中。在美国银行的最新调查中，基金经理将Covid-19列为仅次于通胀、央行加息、经济增长放缓和资产泡沫的第五大风险。\nBlueBay资产管理公司首席投资策略师David Riley在接受彭博电视台采访时说：“我们已经适应了病毒的存在，其对宏观和市场的影响是相当有限的，并随着时间的推移而减弱。”\nMiller Value Partners投资组合经理John Spallanzani也表示，感恩节假期至周末期间交易清淡，可能会放大资产抛售的幅度：\n\n 我们通常是在没有基本事实依据的情况下面对市场混乱的。\n\n\n 非洲是世界上疫苗接种率最低的国家之一，\n 而这很可能会促使更多的人接种疫苗，这从长远来看是利好消息，不应破坏全球复苏。\n\n直到最近，人们的共识似乎是，新冠肺炎病例的最新激增没什么可担心的。本周早些时候，摩根士丹利建议投资者仔细观察感染的爆发，摩根大通也一致认为第四波疫情“不太可能是一个实质性的或持续的问题”。\n“投资者可以逢低买入”\n不只是东吴证券，对于这一新病毒的蔓延，华尔街多位分析师指出，当务之急是要弄清楚目前的疫苗效力如何。\n巴克莱银行分析师Emmanuel Cau表示：\n\n关键是要弄清楚当前的疫苗对新病毒是否仍然有效。新冠疫情的不确定性可能会迫使各国央行谨慎行事。\n\n\n 我们建议在这些水平上进行更多的杠铃式配置和下行对冲，但我们认为，具有韧性的增长以及保持加息耐心的央行应该会继续在中期提供缓冲，\n 而投资者可以逢低买入。\n\n贝莱德国际分析师Li Wei在接受彭博采访时表示：\n\n 争论的焦点在于新病毒是否对疫苗功效构成更大挑战。这将决定我们对目前正在发生的事情的看法：如果我们看到的只是重启经济的延迟，而不是根本性的脱轨。\n\n瑞士银行集团Reyl & Cie 的信息主管Cedric Ozazman表示：“这是一种健康的调整，可能仍会出现一些夸大式下跌的情况，但这将是逢低买入的机会。”\n中金：风险资产短期承压 A股市场可能表现更好\n由于当前奥密克戎变种的传播能力和疫苗的有效性仍无科研定论，中金根据新病毒可能的演变方向对市场走势进行了三种情景的预测。\n而其中相对悲观的情景是奥密克戎将导致更高的传染性和致死率、且疫苗基本无效，导致更严厉的全面封锁，可能使得全球防控面临更加严峻的局面。\n中金认为，部分国家一定程度的对外甚至对内封锁都难以避免，可能会给经济修复再度蒙上阴影、加重本来就处于相对紧张状态的供应链的压力，进而对资产价格产生压力，这也是市场最为担心的主要原因。\n相比之下，受国内疫情控制更好叠加相对更为充分政策空间和经常账户对资金外流的缓冲，A股市场可能表现更好，而发达市场风险资产出现一定回调，新兴市场“增长落差”进一步放大。避险资产如黄金和美债可能有阶段性行情。\n但中金也指出，这一情形目前来看可能也过于悲观。当前可能相对有利的一面是，各国政府和药厂响应更为及时且积累的更多应对和疫苗研发的经验、更高的接种比例（Delta爆发时，很多国家依然面临接种不足的情形）、以及特效药的研发进展都有可能在应对新的变种病毒时具有更好的准备。\n从资产角度看，中金认为，全球风险资产将不排除仍在短期内承受一定压力。美股可能仍相对领先，新兴市场由于疫情带来的增长压力和流动性退出的资金压力相对承压。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":600867139,"gmtCreate":1638140023600,"gmtModify":1638140023784,"author":{"id":"4092157725482150","authorId":"4092157725482150","name":"投资小白969","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/814b6f296fcb0fe975418702ddf1ea43","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4092157725482150","authorIdStr":"4092157725482150"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600867139","repostId":1143930033,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6761399,"gmtCreate":1638142642361,"gmtModify":1638142642394,"authorId":3575263168543089,"author":{"id":3575263168543089,"idStr":"3575263168543089","authorId":3575263168543089,"name":"DYTW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cde30c1273dc42fc6d656563b8d18fed","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":600867139,"type":1,"supId":6760697,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":6760749,"gmtCreate":1638140997939,"gmtModify":1638140997971,"authorId":3581664796192339,"author":{"id":3581664796192339,"idStr":"3581664796192339","authorId":3581664796192339,"name":"cy8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e0b4689f72344b9882519e0991e43e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":600867139,"type":1,"supId":6760697,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":6760697,"gmtCreate":1638140803489,"gmtModify":1638140803589,"authorId":4096237348804660,"author":{"id":4096237348804660,"idStr":"4096237348804660","authorId":4096237348804660,"name":"E1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f887693ed3474f48db5ad78f0799734","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":600867139,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":600868259,"gmtCreate":1638139075800,"gmtModify":1638139075888,"author":{"id":"3582000308162414","authorId":"3582000308162414","name":"choysk86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd3a9672ac1a426110747a9475d050e","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582000308162414","authorIdStr":"3582000308162414"},"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600868259","repostId":1143930033,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":600882492,"gmtCreate":1638136768821,"gmtModify":1638136768929,"author":{"id":"3584171990993226","authorId":"3584171990993226","name":"CHECK1894","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9a785bbb375153a6fee7e1567d5ad3","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584171990993226","authorIdStr":"3584171990993226"},"htmlText":"危险","listText":"危险","text":"危险","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600882492","repostId":1143930033,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":600817857,"gmtCreate":1638127377588,"gmtModify":1638127377726,"author":{"id":"3585719690699119","authorId":"3585719690699119","name":"JamesKris","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aac2589582efca37b2cdcc183a8aed4a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585719690699119","authorIdStr":"3585719690699119"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600817857","repostId":1143930033,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6759852,"gmtCreate":1638132628677,"gmtModify":1638132628784,"authorId":3584996780381106,"author":{"id":3584996780381106,"idStr":"3584996780381106","authorId":3584996780381106,"name":"TEO3303","avatar":"h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