Is Zoom Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?

seekingalpha2021-05-17

Summary Is the lockdown trade over? ZM has traded down almost 40% since all time highs. The company reported 369% growth in the latest quarter. I analyze the stock as we move beyond the pandemic, and...

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精彩评论

TKCat
2021-05-18
TKCat
With more covid cases worldwide, got Ng to be the main mode of communication for many businesses and institutions.
BeeL
2021-05-18
BeeL
Zoom. Can buy or no?
KWHChye
2021-05-18
KWHChye
But post pandemic people will still start to look at working from home too, it might still have subscribers just fewer
Annalz
2021-05-17
Annalz
Whatever you think is right will be right
小小只样
2021-05-17
小小只样
🐣🐥
Soksok
2021-05-17
Soksok
Good

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The company has definitely earned much of its strong performance, as its underlying financials have grown very rapidly due to the pandemic. However, as we move beyond the pandemic, growth is expected to decelerate considerably and even more so the following year. ZM has a strong balance sheet, but the valuation appears rich even after this selloff. I rate shares neutral and recommend waiting for the valuation to catch up.\nZoom Video Stock Price\nAfter peaking near $500 per share, ZM has seen its stock clobbered alongside the recent tech correction.\n(Seeking Alpha)\nWith the stock now trading at levels not seen since late last year, is it now time to take another look at the company?\nZoom Stock Earnings\nZM closed out 2020 with a strong fourth quarter, as revenues grew 369% YOY to $882 million.\n(2020 Q4 Presentation)\nIn addition to adding new customers in general, its existing customers also added new licenses for its employees, as evidenced by the 130% net dollar expansion rate.\n(2020 Q4 Presentation)\n2020 saw one of the largest inflows of cash into the tech sector in recent history. ZM arguably helped contribute to this trend, as it proved that operating leverage is fact not fiction. ZM saw free cash flow jump from $26.6 million to $377.9 million.\n(2020 Q4 Presentation)\nFor the full year, ZM generated $672 million in net income, representing a blistering 25% net margin.\nIs ZM A Good Long Term Investment?\nLooking forward, ZM expects revenues to grow nearly 42% and for non-GAAP EPS to grow only 8%.\n(2020 Q4 Presentation)\nI expect that the margin compression will be a result of ZM heavily increasing its investment in growth. One might also notice that the full year revenue outlook seems most nearly identical to the first quarter outlook annualized. ZM ended the year with $4.2 billion in cash versus no debt. Those with a long term horizon might not be focused on the margin compression. However, I expect many to wonder how ZM will fare post-pandemic. It is important to note that ZM charges on a per-user basis - meaning that just because employees use Zoom less, that does not mean that they pay Zoom less.\n\nInstead, Zoom would be negatively impacted if companies decided that fewer of their employees needed access to host Zoom video calls. The fact that ZM is guiding for strong growth in 2021 even after the pandemic suggests that ZM can maintain relevance in a “normal” world. ZM has taken market share within the video conferencing space at an aggressive pace versus competitors.\n(2020 Q4 Presentation)\nAs a user of Zoom myself, I can attest to the notion that the company’s service appears to be of a much higher quality than competitors - especially that from Cisco’s Webex (CSCO).\nIs ZM A Buy Or Sell\nEven with a promising outlook, is the stock cheap enough to buy? After the recent selloff, the stock now sells for 35 times trailing sales. Analysts are expecting growth to slow down to the 20% range after this year.\n(Seeking Alpha)\nWith shares trading at 24 times forward sales, it is very difficult for me to recommend buying shares in light of 20% forward growth. Typically I would only look to buy a stock growing at 20% at a 16x sales multiple or lower. Here's how I think about it: I expect ZM to achieve 40% net margins upon maturity. Slap on a 30x earnings multiple, and ZM should trade around 12x sales upon maturity. With the stock trading at 35x sales, the company needs to grow revenues by 200% just before the valuation catches up to the stock.\nIf one is set on owning ZM, then it may be preferable to sell a covered call option against the position - perhaps the June 2022 expiration with strike price of $400 is attractive at $30 per option. That would generate an approximate 10% return over the next year even if ZM stays in place, while allowing for an additional 33% upside. My personal take is that the stock appears generously priced even if paired with such a strategy - investors may be better served waiting either for lower prices or for greater clarity regarding forward growth rates.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":195677713,"gmtCreate":1621295255332,"gmtModify":1634192757522,"author":{"id":"3575764061064234","authorId":"3575764061064234","name":"TKCat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99ee288f493a95ddc49f6f7bbeb74457","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575764061064234","authorIdStr":"3575764061064234"},"htmlText":"With more covid cases worldwide, got Ng to be the main mode of communication for many businesses and institutions.","listText":"With more covid cases worldwide, got Ng to be the main mode of communication for many businesses and institutions.","text":"With more covid cases worldwide, got Ng to be the main mode of communication for many businesses and institutions.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195677713","repostId":1143399225,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":195642088,"gmtCreate":1621294743444,"gmtModify":1634192770850,"author":{"id":"3569409177654344","authorId":"3569409177654344","name":"BeeL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fd117193f398e58143bed822f34e05","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569409177654344","authorIdStr":"3569409177654344"},"htmlText":"Zoom. Can buy or no?&nbsp;","listText":"Zoom. Can buy or no?&nbsp;","text":"Zoom. Can buy or no?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195642088","repostId":1143399225,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":195615094,"gmtCreate":1621292474118,"gmtModify":1634192812958,"author":{"id":"3559643628960690","authorId":"3559643628960690","name":"KWHChye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff28c38f154930713b0a64f6389191d8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559643628960690","authorIdStr":"3559643628960690"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;But post pandemic people will still start to look at working from home too, it might still have subscribers just fewer&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;But post pandemic people will still start to look at working from home too, it might still have subscribers just fewer&nbsp;","text":"But post pandemic people will still start to look at working from home too, it might still have subscribers just fewer","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195615094","repostId":1143399225,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":195806607,"gmtCreate":1621266950409,"gmtModify":1634192897084,"author":{"id":"3577089953267281","authorId":"3577089953267281","name":"Annalz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd285ab6189bb61da4b48c3e149eedc","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577089953267281","authorIdStr":"3577089953267281"},"htmlText":"Whatever you think is right will be right&nbsp;","listText":"Whatever you think is right will be right&nbsp;","text":"Whatever you think is right will be right","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195806607","repostId":1143399225,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":195174479,"gmtCreate":1621266437291,"gmtModify":1634192900696,"author":{"id":"3581842076108699","authorId":"3581842076108699","name":"小小只样","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7f90d0dc72cf5dbd2ac5c13542c4c87","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581842076108699","authorIdStr":"3581842076108699"},"htmlText":"🐣🐥","listText":"🐣🐥","text":"🐣🐥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195174479","repostId":1143399225,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":195145738,"gmtCreate":1621265480624,"gmtModify":1634192907430,"author":{"id":"3579684763801587","authorId":"3579684763801587","name":"Soksok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c4a8d2787d3c5042bccff3b0bb60f1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579684763801587","authorIdStr":"3579684763801587"},"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195145738","repostId":1143399225,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":33,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.0","shortVersion":"4.29.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1143399225"}