科技股领涨风险资产，散户大军卷土重来，什么信号？

华尔街见闻2023-07-19

作者：常嘉帅美股二季度财报季紧随着疲软的经济数据如期揭幕。对火热的股市而言，美联储的鹰声如耳旁风。事实上，仔细观察今日的美股，不难发现，美联储加息基本算是白加，2022年的熊市已经远去，市场已重回2021年的狂热。主要信号有两个：1）狂欢式上涨的科技股；2）卷土重来的散户大军。这一切如2021年重现，但当时随之而来的是惨烈的大跌。科技股狂欢式上涨从大盘来看，美联储500个基点的加息只加了个寂寞。...

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精彩评论

下海寻妖
2023-07-19
下海寻妖
你在 t
龙腾虎乐
2023-07-19
龙腾虎乐
美股还是挺神奇的[开心] 我从去年年底到现在已经涨了近三倍[开心] [开心] [开心] 说实话，崩盘还看不出来。
龙腾虎乐
2023-07-19
龙腾虎乐
美股短期不会崩盘的，Q4再说啦
喵呜喵
2023-07-19
喵呜喵
美股一直让人活在上涨的恐惧中，好过A(癌）股一直体验下跌的崩溃！身边的朋友都开始清仓癌股，定投纳指，美股可期…
chirsj
2023-07-19
chirsj
哈哈魔怔人加息等于没加，希望你孩子身体健康，或者说你的脑子能够恢复正常，不用天天混混呃呃呃呃呃呃呃呃的，没钱我可以指导你两下。
风神再现
2023-07-19
风神再现
胡言乱语，毫无逻辑！我告诉你大型科技股不会崩，不会崩，不会崩！

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Research预计，整个财报季，散户的净买入量都会维持在高位。该机构指出，散户通常倾向于“逆向投资”，即“追涨杀跌”，如果股市保持上行趋势，未来预计还会有大量散户资金涌入。该机构称，自2020年美股散户人数大幅攀升以来，”散户交易者从未在财报季'正式'开始前如此积极地买入股票\"。美银基金经理调查报告也显示：尽管机构投资者倾向于低配股票，但根据 AAII（美国个人投资者协会）的数据，美国散户对股市的看涨情绪，已达到2021年以来的最高水平。散户买买买正在推动美国民众喜闻乐见的meme股暴涨。今年迄今，MEME ETF累计上涨61%，明星meme股中，不乏一些涨幅吊打英伟达的超级赢家：比特币矿商Riot Platforms累涨439%，AI借贷平台Upstart Holdings累涨308%，Coinbase累涨196%，电动汽车股Carvana累涨了740%。此外，比特币今年的涨幅也高达80%。一切情绪指数都指向积极的方向：牛熊价差，即认为股市将走高的投资者与预期股市将下跌的投资者之间的差额，已连续六周为正值。这是自2021年11月以来牛熊价差为正值的最长一段时期。美国人对整体经济也越来越有信心。根据密歇根大学的调查，7月份的消费者信心指数从上个月的64.4跃升至72.6。这是自2021年9月以来的最高值，也是自2005年以来的最大增幅。投资者的恐慌已经基本消退。Cboe波动率指数（VIX）目前位于13点附近，该指数低于20即意味着市场对保险的需求很低。芝加哥期权交易所数据显示，看跌期权与看涨期权的比率，已降至2022年1月以来的最低水平。Aptus Capital Advisors投资组合经理David Wagner对华尔街日报表示，自美联储3月份救助银行系统以来，投资者的担忧少了很多。他认为，目前唯一能阻止这波涨势的，就是大的风险重新摆上桌面。不过，看空美股的市场参与者则相信，一场全面崩盘的完美风暴正在酝酿之中。2021 年末，散户投资者同样争先恐后地大举买入，但之后就遭遇了惨烈的熊市：年初散户蜂拥入市的时候，VIX指数和看跌期权与看涨期权比率同样处于低位；但到2022年1月初，三大股指均已见顶，标普500在一年里累计下跌了19%。PNC资管集团CIO Amanda Agati对华尔街日报表示：“FOMO（害怕错过）情绪变得如此之大，以至于散户投资者在最后时刻蜂拥而入，这是最后的狂欢，正好赶上市场从峰顶滑落。”令人担忧的不仅仅是市场的繁荣。借贷成本上升有可能导致经济放缓，扼杀企业信贷，使公司和家庭更难获得贷款。在过去一年左右的时间里，汽车贷款和抵押贷款的利率飙升了约3个百分点。美联储数据显示，信用卡的利息已经从 16% 上升到了 22%。虽然通胀有所缓解，6月CPI同比回落至3%，但仍高于美联储2%的目标。美联储担忧，美国人会习惯于高通胀，因此在经济放缓之际仍然不断发出鹰声警告，一旦紧缩的政策持续下去，股市的狂欢不会持续太久。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":199628956516640,"gmtCreate":1689779238328,"gmtModify":1689779964313,"author":{"id":"3571453680364385","authorId":"3571453680364385","name":"下海寻妖","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3571453680364385","idStr":"3571453680364385"},"htmlText":"你在 t","listText":"你在 t","text":"你在 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说实话，崩盘还看不出来。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199801161973920","repostId":1143362679,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":199780087374040,"gmtCreate":1689777791454,"gmtModify":1689777792926,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622fc56f7e67b5729addb4e78a195511","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3482550532367433","idStr":"3482550532367433"},"htmlText":"美股短期不会崩盘的，Q4再说啦","listText":"美股短期不会崩盘的，Q4再说啦","text":"美股短期不会崩盘的，Q4再说啦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199780087374040","repostId":1143362679,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":199618693964016,"gmtCreate":1689776683400,"gmtModify":1689776685086,"author":{"id":"3541116545659059","authorId":"3541116545659059","name":"喵呜喵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d51c5af7a6e2426971ebeb5a65747ce","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3541116545659059","idStr":"3541116545659059"},"htmlText":"美股一直让人活在上涨的恐惧中，好过A(癌）股一直体验下跌的崩溃！身边的朋友都开始清仓癌股，定投纳指，美股可期…","listText":"美股一直让人活在上涨的恐惧中，好过A(癌）股一直体验下跌的崩溃！身边的朋友都开始清仓癌股，定投纳指，美股可期…","text":"美股一直让人活在上涨的恐惧中，好过A(癌）股一直体验下跌的崩溃！身边的朋友都开始清仓癌股，定投纳指，美股可期…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199618693964016","repostId":1143362679,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":199618636509200,"gmtCreate":1689776568254,"gmtModify":1689776570177,"author":{"id":"3560312943951686","authorId":"3560312943951686","name":"chirsj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78695435fff9536bbc2367a87cd732b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3560312943951686","idStr":"3560312943951686"},"htmlText":"哈哈&nbsp; 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