7月美股“意外大涨”，市场开心了，美联储呢？

华尔街见闻2022-07-30

作者：王眉在经历上半年大幅下跌后，美股7月份迎来大幅反弹，主要股指本月均录得2020年以来最大单月涨幅。7月美股大涨，尤其在美联储加息75基点之后更是连续走高，仅在周三和周四，标普500指数就上涨了4%，创美联储FOMC会议后有记录以来最大两日涨幅，这背后是市场“预判了美联储的预判”，认为美联储会更早转向宽松。类似久旱逢甘霖，市场脸上终于有了喜色，感觉希望就在前方，但股市大涨也引发了一个问题：在...

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精彩评论

1小龙女1
2022-08-01
1小龙女1
[微笑]
MOORE
2022-08-01
MOORE
总是拿这边的思维模式忽悠韭菜，联属的责任和股市无关
锅盖面_6464
2022-07-31
锅盖面_6464
股市也是蓄水池，把钱投入股市一样可以起到紧缩的目的

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What about the Federal Reserve?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ae4a4609ae1bf38606231ed70b91ff","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"作者：王眉在经历上半年大幅下跌后，美股7月份迎来大幅反弹，主要股指本月均录得2020年以来最大单月涨幅。7月美股大涨，尤其在美联储加息75基点之后更是连续走高，仅在周三和周四，标普500指数就上涨了4%，创美联储FOMC会议后有记录以来最大两日涨幅，这背后是市场“预判了美联储的预判”，认为美联储会更早转向宽松。类似久旱逢甘霖，市场脸上终于有了喜色，感觉希望就在前方，但股市大涨也引发了一个问题：在这个“看美联储脸色”的时期，这种反弹会在什么时候开始与降低通胀的目标相违背？在今年2月的时候，瑞信明星分析师Zoltan Pozsar曾表示，美联储主席鲍威尔必须让市场崩溃，才能引发他迫切需要的经济放缓以遏制通胀。今年3月末，美银衍生品策略师也表示，美联储正在寻求更严格的融资条件，以帮助他们对抗通胀，这将不利于风险资产，该行提醒投资者，市场的任何上行都会带来麻烦。股市飙升使抑制通胀的目标变得复杂，这是在紧缩时期很少出现大幅上涨的原因之一。虽然美联储对股市的态度总体上可能是矛盾的，但鉴于市场在调节金融状况——实体经济的杠杆——方面所扮演的角色，美联储总是不会完全失去理智。鲍威尔周三表示，政策制定者将密切关注金融状况是否“适当紧缩”。自美联储年初酝酿加息以来，美国金融环境呈现波动下滑的态势，在加息前夕会趋向紧缩，但在加息后则变得更加宽松。目前，随着标普500指数大涨（本月涨9.11%），并且美国国债收益率也全面下跌，10年期美国国债收益率从6月份的3.5%降至2.65%，金融环境再一次趋于宽松，这会引起鲍威尔的担心吗？下一阶段，金融环境会否再次趋于紧张？美联储：到底“向左”还是“向右”？投资机构Bespoke Investment Group全球宏观策略师George Pearkes称：“美联储不想要更宽松的金融环境，因为他们想要更低的需求，基本上，市场认为美联储的鹰派立场已经见顶，美联储将比预期更早放松政策。但我怀疑美联储是否会认可这一点。”美银图表显示，“1967、1973、1980、1998……”，这些案例都是美联储过早宽松导致通胀复燃，之后不得不重新紧缩、导致经济衰退。而作为美联储新的“御用放风记者”，Nick Timiraos在之前的报道中认为，对美联储来说，过早放松货币政策有重蹈上世纪70年代时通胀失控的风险。在1970年代，央行存在着一个所谓走走停停——“go and stop”的体系：在这个周期的“go”阶段，央行将保持宽松的政策，直到公众开始担心通胀；然后，央行将进入紧缩政策的“stop”阶段，直到不断上升的失业率成为人们担忧的问题。美联储在提高利率以抑制通胀和降低利率以支撑经济增长之间摇摆不定，最终两者都无法实现。经济学家现在认为这是一个代价高昂的政策错误。所以有交易员担心，美联储会试图在下次会议之前让这场盛宴停止。但市场普遍的感受是，近几个月来美国金融状况“明显”紧缩，并将在未来几个月对经济施加下行压力。因此也有机构认为，美联储正在犯错。天风证券最近就发文表示，继低估通胀、高估加息压制通胀的能力之后，从近几次议息会议纪要来看，联储可能正在犯第三次错误——过于依赖就业指标作为判断经济情况的依据，结果低估了衰退来临的时间。当货币政策的邮轮行至河流的分岔路口，向左还是向右？考验美联储的真正时刻到来了！","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":685099669,"gmtCreate":1659326038454,"gmtModify":1659326038454,"author":{"id":"3470796964701736","authorId":"3470796964701736","name":"1小龙女1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3470796964701736","authorIdStr":"3470796964701736"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685099669","repostId":1142529553,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":682753166,"gmtCreate":1659287753756,"gmtModify":1659318075807,"author":{"id":"75559616907264","authorId":"75559616907264","name":"MOORE","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/c20c93f389a475a0a37740b191cda852","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"75559616907264","authorIdStr":"75559616907264"},"htmlText":"总是拿这边的思维模式忽悠韭菜，联属的责任和股市无关","listText":"总是拿这边的思维模式忽悠韭菜，联属的责任和股市无关","text":"总是拿这边的思维模式忽悠韭菜，联属的责任和股市无关","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682753166","repostId":1142529553,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":682767303,"gmtCreate":1659271423204,"gmtModify":1659271423204,"author":{"id":"3481498182733167","authorId":"3481498182733167","name":"锅盖面_6464","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04b2cfe3895d4e880d09935fba09f66","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3481498182733167","authorIdStr":"3481498182733167"},"htmlText":"股市也是蓄水池，把钱投入股市一样可以起到紧缩的目的","listText":"股市也是蓄水池，把钱投入股市一样可以起到紧缩的目的","text":"股市也是蓄水池，把钱投入股市一样可以起到紧缩的目的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682767303","repostId":1142529553,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":24,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":6,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1142529553"}