Is Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?

seekingalpha2021-06-16

Summary FSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago. With that sort of move, caution is warranted on further gains. New fundamental developments lay out the future path for Fisker. ...

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精彩评论

kevinlaisq
2021-06-16
kevinlaisq
Please comment and like
Nicknameme
2021-06-16
Nicknameme
Looks good
fffelicia
2021-06-16
fffelicia
ooo
cuppa
2021-06-16
cuppa
Hmm
Hewboon
2021-06-16
Hewboon
Commented
kuppi
2021-06-16
kuppi
Think so

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OG Tesla(TSLA) continues to dwarf all other comers in terms of market cap, but there are numerous new competitors, many of which are so new, they don’t even have any revenue yet. One such example is the reincarnated Fisker Inc.(FSR), which is founder Henrik Fisker’s second go at making an electric automaker.\nI wrote apieceon Fisker about a month ago when the share price was $10.69, saying it was a great time to buy. Shares are 72% higher than that today – amassivemove in the space of four weeks – but such is the nature of the game in electric vehicles. Up 72%, the big question is, do you continue to hold? In this case, I think the answer is “no”, but with some caveats.\nSource: StockCharts\nFirst, let’s take a look at the chart, which highlights just how volatile this thing really is. Prior support in the low-$14s was lost during the last downturn, and the stock eventually bottomed at $9.61. Since then, shares havedoubled, and we’ve seen a complete reset in terms of sentiment for Fisker. One thing you must understand is that Fisker and other zero-revenue EV makers trade on momentum and sentiment rather than fundamentals, so you must be nimble.\nI would look for that low-$14 area to hold as support on the next pullback, but I’ll also note that it isn’t all that strong, having failed miserably last time there was a selloff. But if the stock is going to bounce, that will likely be the area it will happen.\nI’ll also note the PPO is very overbought, and is very close to the same levels where prior rallies have lost steam and eventually rolled over. That means the odds of a further rally from here are greatly diminishing, as the bulls have made a Herculean push already, and there are signs the push is ending, at least temporarily.\nThe 14-day RSI is showing similar behavior, as it is rolling over after reaching extreme overbought conditions. The point of all of this is that this stock has doubled in the space of a month, and the rally looks tired. I don’t see a reasonable path meaningfully higher here, but in the EV space, anything can happen. But the bottom line is that the rally looks tired to me, and I think the most prudent course of action is to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry.\nNew developments\nThere have been some interesting developments since my last update on Fisker, and ones that have the potential to drive the share price over time.\nFirst up, short interest in Fisker is soaring, and after the numerous highly-shorted stocks we’ve seen go to the moon this year, that’s worth noting. Below is Fisker’s short interest for reference.\nSource: YCharts\nShort interest has roughly quadrupled since February, and is rising all the time. The kinds of rallies that we’ve seen in Fisker can cause short squeezes because shorts on the wrong side of a parabolic rally can often panic buy to cover their shorts, leading to a short squeeze.\nFisker’s current rally lacks the volume of a short squeeze, so I firmly believe this rally is not a result of high short interest, but is instead buyers just buying the stock. If shorts throw in the towel, Fisker could squeeze a lot higher than it is today. To be clear, I’m not saying Fisker is the next short squeeze, but what I am saying is that 45M shares short is roughly seven days’ worth of normal volume, so it’s significant. I certainly also would not short Fisker at these levels for that reason.\nIn short, I do not believe Fisker is the next short squeeze candidate because squeezes usually occur when a stock is at or near a top, and thus most or all short sellers are underwater. Fisker isn't anywhere close to its former high, and given how tired the rally looks today, I see the odds of that occurring as low.\nFrom a fundamental perspective, Fisker continues to make progress towards making production a reality of its Ocean SUV, as evidenced in itsQ1 report. The company ended the quarter with $985 million in cash, which is good enough for about 10 quarters at the current run rate; in Q1, the company spent $29 million on operating activities, and $66 million in capex. The company also said the majority of the Ocean has been sourced, which is improving cost visibility as prior questions have become answers.\nI don’t think Fisker has unlimited runway in terms of cash, but it should have enough to get to production of the Ocean, which is still slated for late this year, or early next year. That’s very important because Fisker needs the cash to start rolling in fairly soon, or further capital raises will be necessary.\nFisker says it has 16k reservations for Oceans at this point, but as we know, reservations for new vehicles are very low cost for the consumer, and don’t represent an obligation to buy. Given this, I take them with a grain of salt. But on the plus side, Fisker has done essentially no advertising, and I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of Americans have no idea what Fisker is. That indicates that there may be some legs to the Ocean, but we’ll have to wait and see.\nPerhaps most importantly, Fisker has an ambitious plan to produce a sub-$30k EV, currently calledProject PEAR. The company has signed Foxconn to make the vehicle, which won’t be available for another two years or so. But it represents another step towards Fisker becoming more mainstream, and if the company can execute, it could grab big chunks of market share. I’ll caveat that producing sub-$30k EVs is no small task because the batteries are very expensive. This is why others have struggled to do the same thing, and I have no reason to think Fisker won’t struggle as well. However, if the Ocean is a success, and provides the cash to develop PEAR, Fisker could be off to the races. PEAR is just an idea at this point, so don’t get too excited, but Fisker certainly has grand plans.\nValuation remains mixed\nThe tricky thing about valuing startups is that the targets – whether it is revenue or earnings – move all the time. In Fisker’s case, it is apparent that some targets were probably a bit optimistic, especially for revenue.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nEstimates for the out years have come up slightly in the past month – likely due to analysts building PEAR into projections – but in the past six months, estimates are off by a third in some cases. You have to remember if you buy this stock that Fisker isn’t slated to receiveanyrevenue until next year, and even then, progress will start slowly. But if Fisker does achieve $8+ billion in revenue by 2025, buying the stock today will have proven a prescient move. There are just so many steps between now and then that the ride will be extremely volatile to say the least.\nThat is illustrated nicely by EPS estimates.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nEPS is almost certainly going to be negative for at least this year and next year, but if production ramps the way it should for Ocean, Fisker has an outside chance at hitting breakeven in 2023. If scale is achieved, we could see very strong EPS, with 2025 current at $3.72 per share, and 2026 at $4.95. If Ocean succeeds, and Fisker can produce PEAR in sufficient numbers, these estimates could become reality. But you can see the consternation among market participants in that a stock with $5 in EPS five years from now is trading for $18,afterdoubling in a month. In other words, the share price is pricing in the fact that these estimates are simply guesses at this point. Said another way, if there was some certainty around $5 in EPS in 2026, it would be reasonable to see a multiple of 10 or 12 on that number, or a share price of $50 to $60. We're at a small fraction of that, which is pricing in the massive uncertainty of the company achieving these results.\nFinal thoughts\nThe bottom line on Fisker is that the company is so far from making any sort of meaningful revenue – and even further from profits – that it is mostly a momentum trade as a result. The stock has doubled in the past month, and I see cracks in the rally’s strength, so I think it is once again time to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry price.\nI think Fisker has the potential to be a winner in the long-term, but the path to get there is fraught with obstacles. I once again see potential and current price fairly balanced, and for that reason, I’m back to neutral on Fisker.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":169821836,"gmtCreate":1623828708525,"gmtModify":1634027460501,"author":{"id":"3572874548548490","authorId":"3572874548548490","authorIdStr":"3572874548548490","name":"kevinlaisq","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/329de1199f764a89b7cadf50308e183d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572874548548490"},"htmlText":"Please comment and like","listText":"Please comment and like","text":"Please comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169821836","repostId":1141264092,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":169884537,"gmtCreate":1623827820129,"gmtModify":1634027472586,"author":{"id":"3574980537184299","authorId":"3574980537184299","authorIdStr":"3574980537184299","name":"Nicknameme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574980537184299"},"htmlText":"Looks good","listText":"Looks good","text":"Looks good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169884537","repostId":1141264092,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":169803617,"gmtCreate":1623825121139,"gmtModify":1631893585346,"author":{"id":"3574284389004367","authorId":"3574284389004367","authorIdStr":"3574284389004367","name":"fffelicia","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8189d5ede55254fca44a27f0a256a0a2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574284389004367"},"htmlText":"ooo","listText":"ooo","text":"ooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169803617","repostId":1141264092,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":169116095,"gmtCreate":1623821275317,"gmtModify":1634027558059,"author":{"id":"3582140048100486","authorId":"3582140048100486","authorIdStr":"3582140048100486","name":"cuppa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582140048100486"},"htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169116095","repostId":1141264092,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":169393877,"gmtCreate":1623816089599,"gmtModify":1634027657337,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","authorIdStr":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586767743717067"},"htmlText":"Commented&nbsp;","listText":"Commented&nbsp;","text":"Commented","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169393877","repostId":1141264092,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":169955189,"gmtCreate":1623813958841,"gmtModify":1634027686332,"author":{"id":"3575011341539105","authorId":"3575011341539105","authorIdStr":"3575011341539105","name":"kuppi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a1c96e4fc6f6f67de0450751c853214","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575011341539105"},"htmlText":"Think so","listText":"Think so","text":"Think so","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169955189","repostId":1141264092,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":48,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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