Should You Buy Peloton Stock: What To Consider

seekingalpha2021-04-21

Summary Peloton's share price is down -29% year-to-date, due to concerns over normalization of demand post-COVID, delays in product delivery, and product safety issues. Peloton's revenue jumped by +...

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精彩评论

Tepggrace
2021-04-22
Tepggrace
Not sure if the home fitness trend will continue
JoeK
2021-04-21
JoeK
After the baby incident, no way man
JMLD
2021-04-21
JMLD
Say it again
赢winner
2021-04-21
赢winner
[财迷]
B.God
2021-04-21
B.God
I not buying
- JoeK:
  Good call
Investigater
2021-04-21
Investigater
Oh no.... buy the dip

发表看法

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Peloton's revenue jumped by +128% YoY to $1,065 million in 2Q FY 2021 (YE June 30) which beat market expectations, but its slowing revenue growth momentum (versus +232% YoY revenue growth in 1Q FY 2021) led to its share price declining by -6% post-results.\nI like Peloton as a business because it has a strong following and offers a compelling value proposition, but the company also has no lack of competitors. Furthermore, Peloton is not as attractive as an investment due to its rather rich valuations. Peloton trades at consensus forward FY 2021 Enterprise Value-to-Revenue and EV/EBITDA multiples of 7.3 times and 91.8 times. These numbers will be more reasonable if PTON is a SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) company, but Peloton still derives over 80% of its revenue from product sales as opposed to digital subscriptions. As a result, I see Peloton Interactive, Inc's shares as a HOLD.\nCompany Description\nEstablished in 2012 and listed on the NASDAQ in September 2020, Peloton Interactive, Inc.calls itself \"the largest interactive fitness platform in the world\" in the company's 2Q FY 2021 10-Q. Peloton has over 4.4 million members as of end-2020 (calendar year), and \"any individual who has a Peloton account through a paid Connected Fitness subscription, or a paid Peloton Digital subscription\" is counted as a member.\nPTON derived 81% and 19% of its 1H FY 2021 revenue from Connected Fitness product sales (e.g. its Bike and Tread products) and subscription fees (for both Connected Fitness and Peloton Digital subscriptions), respectively. With regards to earnings contribution, the Connected Fitness products and the subscription business accounted for 72% and 18% of Peloton's top line in the first half of fiscal 2021. In terms of geographical sales mix, Peloton generated 95% of the company's 1H FY 2021 sales from North America, with other international markets contributing the remaining 5% of its revenue over the same period.\nWhy Did Peloton Stock Drop?\n2020 was a great year for Peloton Interactive, Inc in terms of stock price performance, as the company's share price surged by +434% from $28.40 as of December 31, 2019 to $151.72 as of December 31, 2020. The same can't be said of 2021, as PTON's last traded price of $107.75 as of April 19, 2021 represents a year-to-date decline of -29%.\nPeloton's stock price has dropped significantly in 2021 year-to-date for a number of reasons.\nFirstly, investors are concerned that Work-From-Home or WFH tailwinds for Peloton will ease once the coronavirus pandemic wanes. Peloton has been a key beneficiary of an increasing number of people working and exercising at home due to COVID-19, but there is no certainty that such trends will persist post-pandemic. Based on data from Bloomberg's COVID Vaccine Tracker, 25.7% of the US population has already been fully vaccinated, while 39.9% of the people in the country have at least been administrated a single dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.\nIn other words, the market is worried about more people returning to offices and exercising at gyms again and its impact on PTON's future performance. In response, Peloton stressed at the JMP Securities Technology Conference on March 1, 2021 that exercising at home \"is a trend that's here to stay\" and \"COVID just accelerated that trend.\" The company also added that \"people have found a way not only to replicate exercising outside of the home, but enjoy it more and perhaps are doing even more than they were even pre-pandemic\", based on its analysis of members' data.\nNevertheless, it remains a significant unknown as to how consumers' behaviors will change and evolve post-pandemic.\nSecondly, Peloton has faced challenges in converting all of the consumer demand for its Connected Fitness products into actual sales.\nAt the company's 2Q FY 2021 results briefing on February 4, 2021, Peloton acknowledged that \"our delivery wait times remain elevated.\" It also highlighted that \"West Coast port delays and COVID-related delivery challenges\" resulted in longer-than-expected \"order to delivery wait times\" and \"forced us to reschedule many deliveries.\"\nBut Peloton is actively trying to address these issues. On April 1, 2021, Peloton disclosed that it had completed the acquisition of Precor, which it refers to as \"one of the largest global commercial fitness equipment providers with a significant U.S. manufacturing presence.\" This should help to ease Peloton's production capacity issues. Also, Peloton has also committed to an additional investment of $100 million with the aim of restoring delivery wait times to normalized levels by end of FY 2021 (June 30, 2022) at the latest.\nThe key concerns here are that this could result in significant customer dissatisfaction and also lead investors to turn to other alternative options such as going back to the gyms (if possible) or buying other competing home fitness products.\nThirdly, Peloton's stock price has been affected by product safety issues raised by the Consumer Product Safety Commission or CPSC.\nThe CSPC published a press release on April 17, 2021 \"warning consumers about the danger of popular Peloton Tread+ exercise machine after multiple incidents of small children and a pet being injured beneath the machines.\" Peloton has responded with a media release of its own on the same day, stating that the CSPC press release is \"inaccurate and misleading\". The company also emphasized that \"there is no reason to stop using the Tread+, as long as all warnings and safety instructions are followed.\"\nPeloton's share price fell by -7% from $116.21 as of April 16, 2021 to $107.75 as of April 19, 2021 following CSPC's press release and Peloton's response. The company has an incredible brand and a strong following as evidenced by some of its fans having Peloton tattoos, so it might take more than a warning from the CSPC to hurt its future sales. However, it is worth following the developments relating to this matter on product safety issues to evaluate any potential damage to Peloton's brand.\nIn a nutshell, the most important issue for long-term investors in Peloton is how consumers' attitudes towards home fitness & exercise will change post-COVID, which will affect the company's future growth runway. On the other hand, product delivery bottlenecks should be resolved in time to come, while the product safety concerns could blow over soon as well.\nHow Is Peloton Doing Financially?\nPeloton Interactive, Inc reported its most recent 2Q FY 2021 financial results (October 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020 period) on February 4, 2021. The company's financial performance in the second quarter of the current fiscal year was above market expectations.\nPTON's revenue rose by +128% YoY from $466 million in 2Q FY 2020 to $1,065 million in 2Q FY 2021, which was approximately +3% better that what Wall Street had expected. This was driven by a +124% YoY increase in Connected Fitness product sales and a +153% YoY growth in subscription revenue. The company also reversed from a net loss per share of -$0.20 in 2Q FY 2020 to a positive earnings per share of $0.18 in 2Q FY 2021. This was more than double the sell-side analysts' quarterly consensus earnings estimate of $0.08 per share.\nHowever, Peloton's share price declined by -6% from $157.53 as of February 4, 2021 to $148.30 as of February 5, 2021 post-results. The company's stock price subsequently dropped to a year-to-date low of $101.35 on March 8, 2021. This suggests that Peloton's financial performance might not be as good as what it appears on paper, if one delves deeper.\nNotably, Peloton's YoY revenue growth narrowed significantly from +232% YoY in 1Q FY 2021 and +172% YoY in 4Q FY 2020 to +128% in 2Q FY 2021. PTON is guiding for $1.10 billion in revenue for 3Q FY 2021, which translates to a top line growth of +110% YoY in the next quarter. This could be attributable to both product delivery issues and demand normalization (highlighted earlier), but there is no escaping the fact that Peloton's revenue growth is slowing.\nIn terms of operating metrics, it is noteworthy that the average workouts per month per subscribers for PTON has stabilized at 20.7 and 21.1 for 1Q FY 2021 and 2Q FY 2021 respectively. In comparison, Peloton's average workouts per month per subscribers jumped from 17.7 in 3Q FY 2020 to 24.7 in 4Q FY 2020. This could be another sign that home fitness demand is starting to normalize.\nPTON Stock Analysis\nThere are a number of things that investors should like about Peloton Interactive, Inc as a business.\nOne key characteristic of PTON's business is that the company has an amazing brand. As I indicated earlier, some of Peloton's followers even have the brand's logo tattooed on their bodies, which is the clearest indication of Peloton's brand equity. Also, consulting firmProphetnamedPeloton as the second most relevant brand in the US in 2021 based ona survey of approximately 13,000 consumers. Peloton only ranked behind Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), and it beat other household brands like Lego, Costco(NASDAQ:COST)and Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN). Prophet's studyhighlightsthat PTON \"earns the highest score for 'connects with me emotionally' via \"its online communities and its constantly expanding variety of workouts available live and prerecorded.\"\nAnother key characteristic of Peloton's business is that it offers a compelling value proposition for consumers. A Connected Fitness subscription costs $39 per month, and the company's Connected Fitness products like bikes are priced at around a few thousand dollars ($1,895for flagship bike product) which can be paid in installments and used by all the people living together. In other words, the all-in cost of working out at home by using PTON's products and services are much cheaper than an annual individual gym membership subscription. In addition, an April 9, 2021Wall Street Journalarticlecited Credit Suisse sell-side research which suggested that \"the monthly cost\" of \"a Peloton bike with a digital membership\" for a couple is \"87% below the cost\" of \"10 SoulCycle classes a month.\" Notably, Peloton's Average Net Monthly Connected Fitness Churncalculated as\"cancellations, net of reactivations\" divided by the number of Connected Fitness subscriptions was below 1% for both FY 2020 and FY 2019.\nMoving forward, Peloton has a long growth runway ahead, considering its multiple growth drivers.\nOne growth driver is new products and cross-selling. It is telling that only3%of Peloton's Connected Fitness' subscribers have both Bike and Tread products from the company. PTONobservedat the recent earnings call that there has been a \"continued mix shift to (the new) Tread products\" andmentionedat the JMP Securities Technology Conference that \"two-product households\" are \"more engaged than people who had have 1 piece of equipment.\" Looking ahead, it is likely that Peloton can increase the proportion of its subscribers who have bought both the Bike and Tread products, and such \"two-product households\" could also be interested in more fitness courses and programs offered by the company leading to higher subscription revenue as well.\nAnother key growth driver is potential synergies associated with the acquisition of Precor highlighted above. Although Peloton has a significant US consumer presence, it is not as strong in commercial and international markets, and Precor could help to fill in the gap. In the company's earlier press release announcing the Precor acquisition, Pelotonnotednew growth opportunities in channels like \"hotels, multifamily residences, and college and corporate campuses.\" Also, while Peloton generated 95% of its 1H FY 2021 revenue from North America as highlighted earlier, Precor hasa presencein \"90 countries around the world.\" PTON has already expanded into the UK and Canada, but there is a lot of room for further overseas expansion.\nOn the flip side, the huge growth potential of the home fitness market inevitably attracts competition. One key competitor isMirrorreferred to as an \"interactive smart gym\" enabled by \"advanced camera technology and machine learning\", The Mirror is , which Lululemon(NASDAQ:LULU)acquired inmid-2020. Another one of Peloton's key competitors isTonal, which calls itself \"an all-in-one machine\" combining \"fitness and strength training with patented digital weight, machine learning, and expert coaching.\" Tonal has raised$450 millionin cumulative funding since its launch, and one of its notable investors include Amazon’s Alexa Fund.\nWhile I acknowledge that Peloton has a strong brand, the competitive landscape in the home fitness industry is still relatively unsettled. The market is growing, and one can't rule out more new entrants. More importantly, customer switching costs (i.e. a few thousand dollars for the Connected Fitness products) might not be sufficient to prevent consumers from switching to new products and other alternatives.\nShould You Buy Peloton Stock?\nI see Peloton stock as a HOLD, rather than a BUY. While Peloton is a good company, it is not a good investment as it stands now. PTON's valuations are rather rich, considering that the company still generates more than 80% of its sales from products, rather than digital subscriptions.\nThe market values Peloton at 7.3 times consensus forward FY 2021 Enterprise Value-to-Revenue and 5.3 times consensus forward FY 2022 Enterprise Value-to-Revenue. The stock also trades at consensus forward FY 2021 and FY 2022 EV/EBITDA multiples of 91.8 times and 50.9 times, respectively.\nNone of Peloton's direct peers are listed on a stand-alone basis, which makes peer valuation comparison challenging. PTON is much more expensive than its fitness peers based on forward EV/EBITDA multiples, although there is a significant divergence in Enterprise Value-to-Revenue ratios for the peer group.\nPeloton's Peer Valuation Comparison\nSource: Author\nI have sourced the consensus numbers referenced in this article from S&P Capital IQ.\nPeloton's key risk factors are a more significant normalization of home fitness demand post-COVID than earlier anticipated, further negative news flow relating to product safety issues, and stiffer-than-expected competition from rivals in the home fitness industry.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":378424327,"gmtCreate":1619056381169,"gmtModify":1634288882826,"author":{"id":"3581887719007324","authorId":"3581887719007324","name":"Tepggrace","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c693f95af71b6d6eb4742fe7028d7cd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Not sure if the home fitness trend will continue","listText":"Not sure if the home fitness trend will continue","text":"Not sure if the home fitness trend will 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again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378190715","repostId":1140867286,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378344603,"gmtCreate":1619006142602,"gmtModify":1634289289457,"author":{"id":"3582096702088134","authorId":"3582096702088134","name":"赢winner","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9a4786040c49036b55bf079e2bc06fc","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378344603","repostId":1140867286,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":378346951,"gmtCreate":1619005801473,"gmtModify":1619005801473,"author":{"id":"3574968450404111","authorId":"3574968450404111","name":"B.God","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fba96cdefc2640a0413c00996aed28d","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"I not buying","listText":"I not buying","text":"I not buying","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378346951","repostId":1140867286,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4093291,"gmtCreate":1619008857291,"gmtModify":1635514721929,"authorId":3575261937306050,"author":{"id":3575261937306050,"authorId":3575261937306050,"name":"JoeK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162445e8b6a553bd412b8a06e3f44c9e","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378346951,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good <u>call</u>","text":"Good <u>call</u>","html":"Good <u>call</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378348866,"gmtCreate":1619005756955,"gmtModify":1634289291681,"author":{"id":"3571011001777364","authorId":"3571011001777364","name":"Investigater","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc9755a32715757af2686d3467dc2be","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Oh no.... buy the dip","listText":"Oh no.... buy the dip","text":"Oh no.... buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378348866","repostId":1140867286,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":18,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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