快手二季度前瞻：DAU预计环比持平，广告及电商高景气

学恒的海外观察2021-07-26

作者：谢琦快手即将发布2Q21财报，我们预计二季度实现营收190.3亿元，同比增长48%；预计实现调整后净亏损为46.4亿元，调整后净亏损率为24.4%。预计2Q21 DAU为2.95亿，环比几乎持平；销售费率为59%，环比降低10%。预计海外销售费用的投放会持续，叠加国内短视频行业需要投入一定的销售费用维持用户及拉新，预计短期销售费用投入较高，致净利润承压。考虑到当前市场环境及短期内销售费用...

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jimmy
2021-07-27
jimmy
步入下降通道
孙大总
2021-07-26
孙大总
好

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日快手电商服务商大会指引，快手 2Q21 品牌的入驻增长 4.5 倍，品牌销量增长 8 倍；在好物联盟方面，白牌货品牌化建设联结优质白牌；2）强化平台履约，增强用户对平台的信任：例如对非标品进行标品的定级，扶持基地和产业链，与深度的有供应链、货品供给、主播孵化及内容建设能力的商家去深入合作；3）稳健扩展品类：如 2021H1 扩充了农资绿植，二手商品，生活服务类的缴费占比。\n\n广告与直播：预计广告收入同比增长 160%，直播收入同比下降 15%\n广告收入高增长，品类和效率仍有较大提升空间，已经是快手收入占比最高的业务。2Q21，我们预计快手广告业务收入为 101 亿元，同比+160%，环比+18%。快手的广告收入仍处于高增长态势中：1）与竞品相比，快手广告业务起步较晚；2）品牌广告主有较大的提升潜力；3）客户结构有优化的潜力：由于快手私域流量大，内循环占比高， 目前广告单价较低。广告业务规模效应显著，其变现效率与用户粘性、广告主数量存在正相关，快手广告仍处于高速发展期，随着外循环客户、品牌客户的增长，快手广告变现效率有望继续提升。\n直播业务同比预计有所降低，主要系去年同期疫情导致的高基数，以及私域转公域的调整。2Q21，我们预计快手直播业务收入为 71 亿元，同比-15%，环比-2%。快手 APP 8.0 版本后，内部私域向公域的调整，对依赖私域流量的直播收入产生一定影响，叠加去年同期疫情导致的高基数，预计同比有所降低。我们预计 2021 年全年，直播收入在 2020 年疫情的高基数上放缓，同比约-11%。\n\n\n投资建议：预计短期内净利润承压，下调目标价至 222-234 港币，继续维持“买入”评级\n海外短视频赛道对快手而言是一片待开垦的土地，预计短期内海外销售费用的投放会持续，叠加国内短视频行业需要投入一定的销售费用维持用户及拉新，预计短期销售费用投入较高，致净利润承压。考虑到当前市场环境及短期内销售费用较高，我们维持盈利预测，下调目标价至 222-234 港币，下调幅度为 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