发生了什么？一日大涨30美元，黄金逼近历史新高

华尔街见闻2023-04-14

经济增速下滑和通胀预期上升不寻常地结合在一起，为金价提供支撑。近期黄金资产狂飙，成为投资者当下最青睐的资产。周四，现货黄金一日大涨30美元，突破2040美元/盎司，为去年3月来最高水平。隔夜，美股贵金属板块也集体上扬，哈莫尼黄金涨超5%。近月黄金期货合约今年上涨12.2%，超过同期标普500指数7%的涨幅。分析指出，美国经济今年可能陷入衰退，以及美联储停止加息或导致未来几年通胀持续高企，创造了一个...

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David8king
2023-04-14
David8king
作者忽视了一个重要因素：金价与美元汇率的走低有高度反比性质。美元加息的结束导致美元汇率走弱，给金价向上提供了动力。

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One day, it rose by 30 dollars, and gold approached a record high","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2307d74e40f56ec7874f96e0cd4077","symbols_score_info":{"159831":0.9,"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9},"content_text":"经济增速下滑和通胀预期上升不寻常地结合在一起，为金价提供支撑。近期黄金资产狂飙，成为投资者当下最青睐的资产。周四，现货黄金一日大涨30美元，突破2040美元/盎司，为去年3月来最高水平。隔夜，美股贵金属板块也集体上扬，哈莫尼黄金涨超5%。近月黄金期货合约今年上涨12.2%，超过同期标普500指数7%的涨幅。分析指出，美国经济今年可能陷入衰退，以及美联储停止加息或导致未来几年通胀持续高企，创造了一个有利于金价上涨的环境。Allspring Global Investments高级投资策略师Brian Jacobsen指出：经济增速下滑和通胀预期上升不寻常地结合在一起，为金价提供支撑。现实的冷酷之手打了很多人的脸，美国今年或明年都不会降至目标通胀率，同时不幸的是，增长预期也在下滑。“衰退+通胀高企”的剧本或将上演黄金通常被视为对冲通胀和货币贬值的工具，其他资产下跌时贵金属能够保值。然而，金价本周的反弹是在CPI和PPI显示通胀正在放缓之后出现的。这是因为投资者正在押注，即使通胀远高于美联储2%的目标，美联储也会停止加息。同时，美国经济陷入衰退的可能性上升，上个月的银行业危机令投资者担心经济将受到短期逆风的影响。美国3月PPI同比增2.7%，创27个月最低纪录，但仍高于疫情前的水平；美国3月CPI同比增长5%，为截至2021年5月以来最小的同比涨幅，但同时也远远高于正常水平。美联储本周公布的会议纪要中，自一年多前美联储开始加息以来，美联储官员首次预计今年晚些时候陷入衰退的可能性超过不衰退，此前官员们判断两种情况可能性大致相当。尽管官员们预计将继续把短期利率从最近的4.75%提高到5%，但市场对此充满质疑并押注美联储很快将停止加息，而停止加息将令高通胀在未来几年深深嵌入美国经济系统中。此外，近期美收益率的下行也提振了黄金，美国国债收益率下降而增加了持有黄金的吸引力。同时，较低的收益率也削弱了美元，这使得美国以外的投资者购买以美元计价的黄金更加便宜。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":651946201,"gmtCreate":1681445107003,"gmtModify":1681446607331,"author":{"id":"4091667583330470","authorId":"4091667583330470","name":"David8king","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ff806f06595fe4210946b5a0cc63c6","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4091667583330470","authorIdStr":"4091667583330470"},"htmlText":"作者忽视了一个重要因素：金价与美元汇率的走低有高度反比性质。美元加息的结束导致美元汇率走弱，给金价向上提供了动力。","listText":"作者忽视了一个重要因素：金价与美元汇率的走低有高度反比性质。美元加息的结束导致美元汇率走弱，给金价向上提供了动力。","text":"作者忽视了一个重要因素：金价与美元汇率的走低有高度反比性质。美元加息的结束导致美元汇率走弱，给金价向上提供了动力。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651946201","repostId":1140463398,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1140463398"}