‘There is no alternative’ — Stocks’ long-running ‘TINA’ advantage could be ending, worrying traders

cnbc2021-03-01

Will March be the death of the “TINA” trade? February started with the reflation trade, and ended with a bond market rout that scrambled stock valuations and caused some to wonder whether this is the ...

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精彩评论

HyperCat
2021-03-02
HyperCat
Is it time to buy bank stocks?
SafetyFirst
2021-03-02
SafetyFirst
Wow TINA
- SafetyFirst:
  wow
- SafetyFirst:
  I see
Hamsterwan
2021-03-02
Hamsterwan
Haha
同是天涯沦落人
2021-03-02
同是天涯沦落人
Rotation play in Feb, I believe this month will have another rotation again.
yellowverow
2021-03-02
yellowverow
Good article.
JeremyKok
2021-03-02
JeremyKok
Which stock to buy?

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The sectors that tend to do worse are defensive: consumer staples, health care, utilities, and real estate.\nThat is exactly how the market is reacting. As rates rose in February, banks gained, and defensive stocks declined.\nAnother group that has been getting hurt on rising rates is technology stocks, and with good reason, Subramanian notes: \"Ultra-low rates have ballooned valuations for secular growth stocks since the financial crisis,\" she says.\nNot surprisingly, megacap tech stocks began moving down as soon as rates started rising.\nMegacap tech in February\n\nApple down 8%\nXilinx down 4%\nAMD down 4%\nFacebook down 4%\nMicrosoft down 1%\n\nThe three factors that drive stock prices\nThe Federal Reserve has been furiously pumping money into the economy, and much of that money has found its way into the stock market and has been a major factor in why equities have done so well in the last year.\nWhile \"liquidity\" (how much money is available to buy and sell stocks) is an important factor, stocks have traditionally risen on some combination of:\n\nAn increase in dividends;\nAn increase in earnings; or\nAn expansion of the P/E multiple.\n\nVanguard founder Jack Bogle used to call dividends and earnings the \"fundamental\" part of stock investing, while calling stock rises based on expanding P/E ratios the \"speculative\" part of the market, that is, it represented investors betting on whether earnings might be rising in the future.\nMuch of the recent expansion in stock prices has been driven by an expansion of the P/E multiple, which now sits at roughly 22 times 2021 earnings.\nBig-cap technology stocks in particular saw dramatic rises in P/E multiples in 2020.  Chip maker Xilinx, for example, went from 25 to 50 times forward earnings.  NVIDIA went from 30 to 60.  Even old-school big cap tech stocks saw big moves up in their P/E levels last year with Microsoft going from 25 to 35, and Apple leaping from 20 to 35.\nThese multiples have dropped as interest rates have risen in 2021.\nThe bad news is that even if bond yields don't move higher, the current move up appears to be putting a ceiling on valuations.\nIf rates keep moving up, can stocks still go higher?\nIf higher rates are indeed putting a ceiling on stock multiples, than investors will have to rely on dividend increases and genuinely rising earnings (not just expectations) to propel prices forward.\nFortunately, there is good evidence this is happening. Analysts have consistently underestimated the strength of the economic recovery. Earnings estimates for the S&P 500 for the first quarter of 2021 have risen from 16.0% to 21.6% from January 1st to February 26th and second quarter earnings estimates have also risen, from 45.7 to 50.9% in the same period.\nWith rates unsettled, expect a volatile March\nIt's a two-way battle between the bulls who say the markets can handle higher rates and those who say valuations are still too high, and between those who say the Fed is in danger of losing control of the low interest rate narrative.\nJim Paulsen from Leuthold has been a consistent bull on the rates vs. stocks debate.  \"As [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell just said, a primary reason that bond yields are rising is because 'real economic growth' (and EPS) is recovering smartly,\" he told me in an email.  \"Is a 40-basis point rise in the real yield really that worrisome given the surge recently in 2021 EPS estimates almost back to all-time record highs?\"\nLooming over every investor is the Federal Reserve. Many believe the Fed will likely come under pressure to taper its bond purchases toward the end of this year.\nThat would put a further lid on stock prices, but the manner in which it is handled could spell the difference between moving sideways, and a major drop in the markets.\n\"If the market begins to believe that the Fed lost control, and the Fed senses that, there's a chance that the Fed will overreact, so we're in a very potentially volatile period,\" Art Cashin from UBS said on our air.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":362412921,"gmtCreate":1614657359563,"gmtModify":1703479450858,"author":{"id":"3570750402462573","authorId":"3570750402462573","name":"HyperCat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d306d099586785cb11da80598e0c9e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570750402462573","authorIdStr":"3570750402462573"},"htmlText":"Is it time to buy bank stocks?","listText":"Is it time to buy bank stocks?","text":"Is it time to buy bank stocks?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362412921","repostId":1139917940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":362419724,"gmtCreate":1614656717568,"gmtModify":1703479444194,"author":{"id":"3570965583958757","authorId":"3570965583958757","name":"SafetyFirst","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6356c1a4c82b1755621f3b2631a6784","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570965583958757","authorIdStr":"3570965583958757"},"htmlText":"Wow TINA","listText":"Wow TINA","text":"Wow TINA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362419724","repostId":1139917940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3797073,"gmtCreate":1615794499166,"gmtModify":1635754310974,"authorId":3570965583958757,"author":{"id":3570965583958757,"idStr":"3570965583958757","authorId":3570965583958757,"name":"SafetyFirst","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6356c1a4c82b1755621f3b2631a6784","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":362419724,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>wow</u>","text":"<u>wow</u>","html":"<u>wow</u>"},{"id":3797074,"gmtCreate":1615794504938,"gmtModify":1635754310848,"authorId":3570965583958757,"author":{"id":3570965583958757,"idStr":"3570965583958757","authorId":3570965583958757,"name":"SafetyFirst","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6356c1a4c82b1755621f3b2631a6784","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":362419724,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I <u>see</u>","text":"I <u>see</u>","html":"I <u>see</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":362506037,"gmtCreate":1614646529929,"gmtModify":1703479267753,"author":{"id":"3562552956363065","authorId":"3562552956363065","name":"Hamsterwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a386beb727f5f9152025be30073c81a3","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562552956363065","authorIdStr":"3562552956363065"},"htmlText":"Haha","listText":"Haha","text":"Haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362506037","repostId":1139917940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":362258822,"gmtCreate":1614644419966,"gmtModify":1703479224681,"author":{"id":"3554323022733956","authorId":"3554323022733956","name":"同是天涯沦落人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/218c98f99603705b961006c26525b95e","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554323022733956","authorIdStr":"3554323022733956"},"htmlText":"Rotation play in Feb, I believe this month will have another rotation again.&nbsp;","listText":"Rotation play in Feb, I believe this month will have another rotation again.&nbsp;","text":"Rotation play in Feb, I believe this month will have another rotation again.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362258822","repostId":1139917940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":362269149,"gmtCreate":1614643026581,"gmtModify":1703479193573,"author":{"id":"3564265006009707","authorId":"3564265006009707","name":"yellowverow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c37966e7067d80ce37d1634098644e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564265006009707","authorIdStr":"3564265006009707"},"htmlText":"Good article.&nbsp;","listText":"Good article.&nbsp;","text":"Good article.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362269149","repostId":1139917940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":362232486,"gmtCreate":1614641526245,"gmtModify":1703479159597,"author":{"id":"3567307840510045","authorId":"3567307840510045","name":"JeremyKok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b03a485f83b6b2615fad8ac9b87bf4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567307840510045","authorIdStr":"3567307840510045"},"htmlText":"Which stock to buy?","listText":"Which stock to buy?","text":"Which stock to buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362232486","repostId":1139917940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":83,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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