AMD Has Become Undervalued

seekingalpha2021-05-03

Summary AMD had a solid Q1. In fact, accelerated growth in the wake of the stock sell-off/plateau might have caused a short-term undervaluation. Long-term, increased competition from Intel clouds ...

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精彩评论

DDDKKK
2021-05-06
DDDKKK
Shortists hedgies keeping the prices down
Nivlek
2021-05-03
Nivlek
Under value it is... Do some justice please[呆住]
MKSoh
2021-05-03
MKSoh
Chips low schedule
SolidSnake
2021-05-03
SolidSnake
Buy when dip
arachno73
2021-05-03
arachno73
Time to buy?
LawranceSu
2021-05-03
LawranceSu
Is it a good buy?

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In fact, accelerated growth in the wake of the stock sell-off/plateau might have caused a short-term undervaluation.\nLong-term, increased competition from Intel clouds ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423627-amd-stock-may-be-undervalued\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Has Become Undervalued</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Has Become Undervalued\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 14:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423627-amd-stock-may-be-undervalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAMD had a solid Q1. In fact, accelerated growth in the wake of the stock sell-off/plateau might have caused a short-term undervaluation.\nLong-term, increased competition from Intel clouds ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423627-amd-stock-may-be-undervalued\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AMD","symbol_name":"美国超微公司","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423627-amd-stock-may-be-undervalued","article_id":"1138740941","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138740941","pubTimestamp":1620022088,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nAMD had a solid Q1. In fact, accelerated growth in the wake of the stock sell-off/plateau m","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"translate_title":"AMD被低估了","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD had a solid Q1. In fact, accelerated growth in the wake of the stock sell-off/plateau might have caused a short-term undervaluation.\nLong-term, increased competition from Intel clouds visibility. Article also demonstrates that cloud digestion is real.\nManagement’s refusal to address its cloudy earnings segments unnecessarily obfuscates performance.\nGiven AMD's higher growth rate, it is quickly approaching Nvidia's revenue levels despite almost 4x lower market cap.\n\nPhoto by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nRecently, I was asked to review AMD's (AMD) Q1 results. The results were solid, as a strong portfolio, ongoing momentum, and a high demand environment are coalescing. Additionally, given the stock sell-off from its all-time high despite the accelerated growth, arguably AMD may present a solid bullish investment. Longer-term, as Intel’s(NASDAQ:INTC)more “aggressive” approach under its new CEO may become visible, there may be some increased risk.\nHowever, AMD’s biggest issue currently that prevents both investors and analysts from accurately assessing the business is its earnings segmentation. For unknown reasons, AMD lumps together its CPU and GPU sales, which historically have been separate businesses. AMD also lumps together console and server sales, which are completely disparate businesses either. This gives the impression that AMD cares little about informing its shareholders. That is the only damper on an otherwise strong quarter.\nQ1 results\nAs indicated, unfortunately, there is not a lot more to say about the results than the headlines reported. Revenue nearly doubled to $3.4B and the bottom line saw even higher increases. Indicative of the high demand environment and possibly increased share in some segments, revenue was also up sequentially (despite the seasonality headwind). Gross margin remains below average at 46%.\nHowever, what most will really care about remains unknown. How much Ryzen did AMD sell? How much Radeon? What is the split between console and Epyc sales? AMD doesn’t want investors to know.\nSo what do we know? All segments were up, so the strength is across the full business. Since Renoir last year, for example, AMD has gained increased momentum in the important laptop segment. AMD has claimed it is on track to 150 designs, while Intel has claimed up to 400 Tiger Lake wins. The console refresh is obviously another expected tailwind.\nFurther, AMD said the data center doubled YoY. This was in line with expectations. Based on some rough estimates assuming low-double-digit market share, Epyc sales might be on the order of $500-700M, up to half of the segment's revenue.\nThis confirmsmy hypothesisthat AMD, in fact, did not receive all the revenue that Intel “lost”. Even if AMD’s Epyc sales were $1B (which is unlikely given the next-gen console launch that has contributed to the segment’s growth), then taking AMD’s claim at face value that Epyc doubled, this means that it gained $500M in TAM from Intel. By comparison, Intel’s data center revenue declined by about $1.5B (i.e. likely over three times what AMD gained). This means $1B in TAM has \"disappeared\". Hence, cloud digestion is real.\nIn summary, it is obvious that AMD has continued to gain share, but this should have surprised no one since Intel’s first real ‘response’ (i.e. its next-gen Xeon) in four years launched just weeks ago.\nFurther diving into segment performance and the Radeon + Ryzen segment grew 47% with increased ASPs. For reference, Intel’s PC volumes were up 38%, although ASPs declined. From these results, it seems market share did not change a lot over the last quarter. (Intel took back share for the first time in years in Q4.)\nThis implies the data center might contribute most growth and market share gains going forward.\nGuidance\nThe next highlight was of course the raised guidance, although I would call this a highlight in disguise. Its Q1 guidance was obviously already calling for high-double-digit growth; meanwhile, the full-year guidance was ‘merely’ 37%. That would imply a steep decline in growth in the second half. It turns out AMD was just being conservative last quarter and/or didn't have as much visibility yet.\nFor Q2, AMD is guiding for a small sequential increase, which should result in another quarter with growth near triple digits.\nRisks\nIntel remains AMD's biggest competitor. As a reminder, AMD had a once-in-a-century opportunity as its Zen architecture introduction coalesced with Intel's endless 10nm delays.\nHowever, Intel has indicated that 10nm will surpass 14nm volume in the second half of the year. With AMD not moving to 5nm for at least another year or so, this means currently the playing field in terms of technology is quite level. Additionally, preliminary rumors are indicating that AMD may not launch 3nm CPUs until 2024, while the many Intel outsourcing rumors (and partly confirmed by Intel) have indicated that it will launch 3nm CPUs in 2023 (although most CPUs likely will be on its own 7nm).\nNeedless to say, if the Intel \"execution engine\" (as Pat Gelsinger called it) really regains steam, then that could derail AMD's momentum.\nAdditionally, the supply chain remains quite uncertain given TSMC's (TSM) shortages.\nInvestor Takeaway\nFor sure, 2021 is shaping up to be a monumental year for AMD. After years of investments, AMD is starting to reap the rewards as scale is starting to show. As two quarters of nearly triple-digit growth indicate, AMD is on track to almost double its business in a bit over a year or so. Perhaps it will also be capped off with theacquisition of Xilinx(XLNX).\nHowever, it should also be pointed out that while the business is growing, it is not possible to pinpoint exactly where this growth is coming from, at least not to a degree that most shareholders will be interested in. AMD continues to show its lack of interest in its shareholders by unnecessarily obfuscating the financial performance of Ryzen, Radeon, console, and Epyc. AMD claims to have reached double-digit data center market share and triple-digit Epyc growth, but this can’t be found in any of the reported numbers.\nUltimately, though, when it comes to the stock, AMD has not rallied much (if any) further since Intel announced its 7nm delay last year, despite accelerating revenue growth in recent quarters. For comparison, in a battle between what have been relatively overvalued semi stocks (compared to Intel), Nvidia (NVDA) currently has almost 4x the market cap despite having nowhere near 4x the revenue and also a notch lower growth rate. A similar argument (to the Nvidia one) could be made for example when comparing AMD to ASML (ASML), which has over 2x the market cap.\nSince Intel’s more competitive offerings will still take a while to even ramp in volume, at the current levels, AMD may represent a decent risk-reward investment.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":105990107,"gmtCreate":1620262313009,"gmtModify":1634206579679,"author":{"id":"3575969271099325","authorId":"3575969271099325","name":"DDDKKK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce1b6fedc1e692561913898f415d2233","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575969271099325","authorIdStr":"3575969271099325"},"htmlText":"Shortists hedgies keeping&nbsp;the prices down","listText":"Shortists hedgies keeping&nbsp;the prices down","text":"Shortists hedgies keeping the prices down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105990107","repostId":1138740941,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":108212221,"gmtCreate":1620029755763,"gmtModify":1634208399378,"author":{"id":"3574990000560529","authorId":"3574990000560529","name":"Nivlek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41f4149425ab3638407f5a060aa3b14","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574990000560529","authorIdStr":"3574990000560529"},"htmlText":"Under value it is... Do some justice please[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"Under value it is... Do some justice please[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"Under value it is... Do some justice please[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108212221","repostId":1138740941,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":108202470,"gmtCreate":1620026268790,"gmtModify":1634208420735,"author":{"id":"3576136439050386","authorId":"3576136439050386","name":"MKSoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bb609bc1fdebf1662b567d1781a842","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576136439050386","authorIdStr":"3576136439050386"},"htmlText":"Chips low schedule","listText":"Chips low schedule","text":"Chips low schedule","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108202470","repostId":1138740941,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":108672143,"gmtCreate":1620024832782,"gmtModify":1634208429192,"author":{"id":"3569277422888666","authorId":"3569277422888666","name":"SolidSnake","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29bda221d66b84c5749c370962298d93","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569277422888666","authorIdStr":"3569277422888666"},"htmlText":"Buy when dip","listText":"Buy when dip","text":"Buy when dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108672143","repostId":1138740941,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":108676319,"gmtCreate":1620024658031,"gmtModify":1631885488577,"author":{"id":"3581334744371071","authorId":"3581334744371071","name":"arachno73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/863498a76b71cd34c7beeb14e7e8e66f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581334744371071","authorIdStr":"3581334744371071"},"htmlText":"Time to buy?","listText":"Time to buy?","text":"Time to buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108676319","repostId":1138740941,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":108678221,"gmtCreate":1620024466763,"gmtModify":1634208430597,"author":{"id":"3581635628520016","authorId":"3581635628520016","name":"LawranceSu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36fcd0a68c29a04462622a82b176cd35","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581635628520016","authorIdStr":"3581635628520016"},"htmlText":"Is it a good buy?&nbsp;","listText":"Is it a good buy?&nbsp;","text":"Is it a good buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108678221","repostId":1138740941,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":25,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1138740941"}