李嘉诚又杀回来了，抄楼市的底

华尔街见闻2023-06-29

作者 | 刘亦、周智宇自2018年宣布退休后，长和系创始人李嘉诚已很少出现在公众面前。但最近，这位95岁、曾经的华人首富频频露面，欲收购香港半山海景豪宅凯玥，货值超300亿港元。该项目由龙光地产和合景泰富联合持有。华尔街见闻也从这两家房企处确认，长实集团确实在与项目债权人之一的汇丰银行接触，拟获得控制权。以李嘉诚为代表的“老钱”每一次出手，都牵动着市场的心。这一次李嘉诚出手，让人们嗅到了不一样的...

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精彩评论

里二外三
2023-06-29
里二外三
已经澄清是假的了?卖都卖不出去，何来的抄底?
猛逃
2023-06-29
猛逃
什么乱七八糟的[白眼]
hbcx
2023-06-29
hbcx
来把我县城里的房子抄一下
trgerNB
2023-06-29
trgerNB
为什么这文章会推送呢，抄底还还是？

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刘亦、周智宇自2018年宣布退休后，长和系创始人李嘉诚已很少出现在公众面前。但最近，这位95岁、曾经的华人首富频频露面，欲收购香港半山海景豪宅凯玥，货值超300亿港元。该项目由龙光地产和合景泰富联合持有。华尔街见闻也从这两家房企处确认，长实集团确实在与项目债权人之一的汇丰银行接触，拟获得控制权。以李嘉诚为代表的“老钱”每一次出手，都牵动着市场的心。这一次李嘉诚出手，让人们嗅到了不一样的气息。不少业内人士认为，他是准备“抄底”了。李嘉诚对这宗地块似乎有执念。6年前，正是龙光与合景泰富组成联合体，以高出市场最高估值53%的溢价，从长实地产等一众房企手中抢下该地块。6年后，长实集团又将收购之手伸向了这个项目。华尔街见闻了解到，此前龙光、合景泰富曾以凯玥作为抵押担保，从汇丰银行等银团获取102亿港元开发贷。近期，有接近该笔银团人士称，长实集团向银团提出收购这笔贷款的多数权益；汇丰也主动召集其他银行开会商议此事；目前，只有汇丰等少数银行支持此次收购。汇丰有自己的考量。受房地产行情影响，汇丰去年的贷款损失拨备36亿美元，它需要处置一些债权，控制整体风险敞口。有知情人士透露，目前凯玥给银团债券兑付情况正常，项目运作也正常。“虽然去化速度并不算快，不过可以带来比较稳定的现金流，长远来看项目价值可以充分释放”。如今，李嘉诚的突然杀入，为这个项目的归属平添了变数。不过，透过这起久违的楼市收购，市场又看到了那个以房地产发家的、熟悉的“李超人”。“低买高卖”，这个商场获利的基本原理，李嘉诚深谙此道，且最早用在了房地产，助他获得资产飞升。早在2013年，李嘉诚就意识到，内地房地产持续上涨，往往以高于市值的价格也无法投得土地，这样的投资会有危险。因此，长实开始“高位逃顶”，密集卖出广州西城都荟广场和上海东方汇金中心项目，到2016年，又以200亿元的价格出售了上海陆家嘴的“世纪汇”。之后，又陆续减少了对内地和香港的地产投资。虽然长实错过了2015-2016年的楼市大爆发，但确实也遵循了他“不赚最后一个铜板”的商业准则。这期间，李嘉诚将家族投资更多转向了英国和欧洲，引发诸多争议。2018年的秋天，万科喊出“活下去”，房地产进入下行周期，此时一些高杠杆房企仍在积极扩张，比如蓝光、阳光城等，全然不知风险已经逼近。此后四年，三道红线、两集中等强力的楼市管控政策出台，叠加疫情影响，房地产开始出现频繁违约，不少房企陷入资金困境，至今没能走出。而在2022年，长和系开始出手，在香港拿下多宗地块，并且不少都是住宅用地。海通国际估计，在过去12个月里，长实集团已在港投入了近205亿港元的新土地成本。去年5月广州土拍，和记黄埔旗下公司也参与了举牌竞价，上一次和记黄埔参与内地土拍，还是在十年之前。此外，长实集团也关注出险房企的资产。去年7月，公司欲购买恒大香港总部大楼，彼时，该楼估值比高点折价约42%；此次通过收购债权以获得凯玥项目控制权，也是一次典型的杠杆投资，以最小的代价获得更多利益。在5月的股东大会上，长江集团主席李泽钜表示，不论投地或收购，只要属于优质资产及具有合理回报，均会展开研究。他强调，集团作出投资考虑主要基于稳健性、回报及项目自身质量，而不是在于地点。也就是说，当优质资产足够便宜，便是李嘉诚出手的时机。频频出手背后，是李嘉诚等“老钱”家族对房地产市场的判断变了。当前一些出险房企少有的优质资产也被摆上货架，同时有竞争力的买家却少了许多。以不错的价格“围猎”这些优质资产，机会显现。于是，在市场收并购所向披靡的“李超人”，也瞄准了自己心仪的猎物，时不时下场，撩拨市场的神经。李嘉诚也深谙周期之道。正如他在自传中所言，市场旺盛的时候要看到潜伏的危机，在不景气的时候要大力发展。周期起伏之间，便是巨大的机会。当前的房地产，是否也是这种机会节点？李嘉诚，这位过去50年里总能精准“踩点”的地产大佬已然出手，或许预示着，一个全新的地产周期也开始了。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":192571767218232,"gmtCreate":1688042980262,"gmtModify":1688042981750,"author":{"id":"3544518779726666","authorId":"3544518779726666","name":"里二外三","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"已经澄清是假的了?卖都卖不出去，何来的抄底?","listText":"已经澄清是假的了?卖都卖不出去，何来的抄底?","text":"已经澄清是假的了?卖都卖不出去，何来的抄底?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192571767218232","repostId":1138473703,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":192558111740072,"gmtCreate":1688039730614,"gmtModify":1688039731948,"author":{"id":"3518527627041174","authorId":"3518527627041174","name":"猛逃","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"什么乱七八糟的[白眼]&nbsp;","listText":"什么乱七八糟的[白眼]&nbsp;","text":"什么乱七八糟的[白眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192558111740072","repostId":1138473703,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":192554800537688,"gmtCreate":1688038838365,"gmtModify":1688038839696,"author":{"id":"3559950053398451","authorId":"3559950053398451","name":"hbcx","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"来把我县城里的房子抄一下","listText":"来把我县城里的房子抄一下","text":"来把我县城里的房子抄一下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192554800537688","repostId":1138473703,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":192554780418168,"gmtCreate":1688038834284,"gmtModify":1688038835742,"author":{"id":"3480716804850091","authorId":"3480716804850091","name":"trgerNB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6500e90bb0ced7aa082ca20e4b15607d","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"为什么这文章会推送呢，抄底还还是？","listText":"为什么这文章会推送呢，抄底还还是？","text":"为什么这文章会推送呢，抄底还还是？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192554780418168","repostId":1138473703,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":4,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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