以史为鉴：拜登的富人税真这么“可怕”么？

华尔街见闻2021-04-25

历史数据显示，资本利得税的变化对股市表现并没有太大影响。过去一周，美股可谓是跌宕起伏。自周二开始，主要股指过山车一样的来回翻转。道琼斯指数周二一度下跌320点，创下3月以来最大跌幅，在经历了随后三天震荡之后，最终收复大部分失地。标普500指数也在震荡之后回到4月16日历史新高附近。本周四，彭博突然报道拜登将对美国收入超过100万美元的富人阶层征收39.6%的资本利得税，这比现有的20%...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Superfred
2021-04-25
Superfred
我是穷人，不可怕
- Superfred:
  来吧，加税来得猛烈些
- Superfred:
  影响非常有限，边际效应
云里梦里飞
2021-04-25
云里梦里飞
不可怕贫穷保护了我
Wang1305
2021-04-25
Wang1305
不可怕
Marksg
2021-04-25
Marksg
鉴，看个人不同理解

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138176748?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1f2064b1def89283b4efa9b8ac4586","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-04-25 08:15","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","id":"1138176748","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"以史为鉴：拜登的富人税真这么“可怕”么？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>历史数据显示，资本利得税的变化对股市表现并没有太大影响。\n\n过去一周，美股可谓是跌宕起伏。\n自周二开始，主要股指过山车一样的来回翻转。道琼斯指数周二一度下跌320点，创下3月以来最大跌幅，在经历了随后三天震荡之后，最终收复大部分失地。标普500指数也在震荡之后回到4月16日历史新高附近。\n\n本周四，彭博突然报道拜登将对美国收入超过100万美元的富人阶层征收39.6%的资本利得税，这比现有的20%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3628893\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴：拜登的富人税真这么“可怕”么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴：拜登的富人税真这么“可怕”么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 08:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3628893><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>历史数据显示，资本利得税的变化对股市表现并没有太大影响。\n\n过去一周，美股可谓是跌宕起伏。\n自周二开始，主要股指过山车一样的来回翻转。道琼斯指数周二一度下跌320点，创下3月以来最大跌幅，在经历了随后三天震荡之后，最终收复大部分失地。标普500指数也在震荡之后回到4月16日历史新高附近。\n\n本周四，彭博突然报道拜登将对美国收入超过100万美元的富人阶层征收39.6%的资本利得税，这比现有的20%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3628893\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"OEF","symbol_name":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3628893","article_id":"1138176748","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1f2064b1def89283b4efa9b8ac4586"],"rights":{"source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3628893","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138176748","pubTimestamp":1619309750,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"历史数据显示，资本利得税的变化对股市表现并没有太大影响。\n\n过去一周，美股可谓是跌宕起伏。\n自周二开始，主要股指过山车一样的来回翻转。道琼斯指数周二一度下跌320点，创下3月以来最大跌幅，在经历了随后","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"translate_title":"Taking History as a Mirror: Is Biden's Rich Tax Really So \"Terrible\"?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0cbee45a726d1c637f5b2d69f8c19bf","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9},"content_text":"历史数据显示，资本利得税的变化对股市表现并没有太大影响。\n\n过去一周，美股可谓是跌宕起伏。\n自周二开始，主要股指过山车一样的来回翻转。道琼斯指数周二一度下跌320点，创下3月以来最大跌幅，在经历了随后三天震荡之后，最终收复大部分失地。标普500指数也在震荡之后回到4月16日历史新高附近。\n\n本周四，彭博突然报道拜登将对美国收入超过100万美元的富人阶层征收39.6%的资本利得税，这比现有的20%接近翻倍。消息一出，周三刚刚稳住的股市随即跳水。\n很多分析于是认为是拜登的富人税”砸崩”了市场。但真的如此么？那怎么解释股市周五又大幅反弹，收复失地呢？\n历史数据显示，资本利得税的变化对股市表现并没有太大影响。\n瑞银全球财富管理CIO Mark Haefele研究发现，2013年资本利得税大幅增加了月9%，但那年股市却上涨了30%。\nHaefele还称，没有发现资本利得税和股市估值存在相关关系。资本利得税在20%的时候，PE一度曾低至10倍，而资本利得税在35%时，PE一度高达18倍。\n资管公司LPL Financial分析师Ryan Detrick梳理了1969年以来，美国4次调整资本利得税之后标普500指数的表现（下图）：\n\n他表示，表面上大家会觉得高税率对股市不是好事，但事实并非如此。1987和2013年上调资本利得税后半年，股市表现都非常好。\n拜登目前只是有加税的计划，但最后过会是否能够通过，还并不能确定。高盛就认为，国会最多通过28%的税率，39.6%根本没有可能。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":375133848,"gmtCreate":1619314367884,"gmtModify":1634274330424,"author":{"id":"3569406663516918","authorId":"3569406663516918","name":"Superfred","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742b6a855610b099bbc2d7c00e1151e8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569406663516918","idStr":"3569406663516918"},"htmlText":"我是穷人，不可怕","listText":"我是穷人，不可怕","text":"我是穷人，不可怕","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375133848","repostId":1138176748,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4125549,"gmtCreate":1619314391194,"gmtModify":1635512053152,"authorId":3569406663516918,"author":{"id":3569406663516918,"idStr":"3569406663516918","authorId":3569406663516918,"name":"Superfred","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742b6a855610b099bbc2d7c00e1151e8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375133848,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"来吧，加税来得猛烈些","text":"来吧，加税来得猛烈些","html":"来吧，加税来得猛烈些"},{"id":4125552,"gmtCreate":1619314420257,"gmtModify":1635512052905,"authorId":3569406663516918,"author":{"id":3569406663516918,"idStr":"3569406663516918","authorId":3569406663516918,"name":"Superfred","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742b6a855610b099bbc2d7c00e1151e8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375133848,"type":1,"supId":4125549,"prevId":0,"content":"影响非常有限，边际效应","text":"影响非常有限，边际效应","html":"影响非常有限，边际效应"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":375195718,"gmtCreate":1619314133234,"gmtModify":1634274333896,"author":{"id":"3568431359478653","authorId":"3568431359478653","name":"云里梦里飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db96756ff214a0066bf8ab2c997583b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568431359478653","idStr":"3568431359478653"},"htmlText":"不可怕 贫穷保护了我","listText":"不可怕 贫穷保护了我","text":"不可怕 贫穷保护了我","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375195718","repostId":1138176748,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":375341747,"gmtCreate":1619312008289,"gmtModify":1634274362803,"author":{"id":"3581573537832144","authorId":"3581573537832144","name":"Wang1305","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581573537832144","idStr":"3581573537832144"},"htmlText":"不可怕","listText":"不可怕","text":"不可怕","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375341747","repostId":1138176748,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":375325370,"gmtCreate":1619310943090,"gmtModify":1634274376571,"author":{"id":"3576833083044318","authorId":"3576833083044318","name":"Marksg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53cce29f082afcb9bde5538b0f462797","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576833083044318","idStr":"3576833083044318"},"htmlText":"鉴，看个人不同理解","listText":"鉴，看个人不同理解","text":"鉴，看个人不同理解","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375325370","repostId":1138176748,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":14,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1138176748"}