Tesla: Looking For Some Clarity

seekingalpha2021-06-02

Summary Company decides to remove radar from driver-assist packages. Chip shortages bring second-quarter production questions into focus. Bitcoin pullback pulls focus away from actual business. ...

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精彩评论

KelZ
2021-06-02
KelZ
Can't wait for 10 June for Model S Plaid deliveries! Want to see how it will be like a 🚀!! Tesla's moon beings, please like and comment!
PeiYi99
2021-06-02
PeiYi99
All the best
KH17
2021-06-02
KH17
The speculation that removing radar is to still hit delivery numbers in order to overcome chip shortages sounds highly unlikely imo. Tesla wouldn’t put out an inferior product and risk their reputation for short term gain.
- 68fc893:
  reply back thank you
- KH17:
  U r well come
Zhiwei996
2021-06-02
Zhiwei996
In it for the long run
曌迎甴
2021-06-02
曌迎甴
老马，你在推特上闭嘴吧[捂脸]
Jarenng
2021-06-02
Jarenng
Buy!

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The company has always planned its production cadence to feature a major push in vehicle deliveries as the quarter comes to a close. The current quarter likely features the most uncertainty we've seen since last year's pandemic heights, as investors look for some clarity into what's going on with the actual business.\nAs a reminder, Tesla produced 180,338 vehicles in the first quarter of this year, despite no production coming from the Model S/X lines. Total deliveries were about 4,500 units higher, setting a quarterly delivery record as the Made in China Model Y started deliveries in the period. As that vehicle's ramp continues, new Model S units will see their first deliveries, and Q2 is usually better seasonally,street estimates see Tesla topping 200,000 deliveries without any problems. The table below shows Tesla's production levels and installed capacity figures going back to the start of the Shanghai factory opening.\n(Source: Tesla earnings reports)\nIf I use 95% of the past four quarters rolling average for production, Tesla would come in at around 215,531 units. With the new Model X seeming to be a little behind the new Model S, I think it's reasonable to expect production of about 210,000 units for the quarter. As Tesla still had some unsold inventory at the end of Q1, I think deliveries could come in a little higher at 212,000.\nHowever, all of these expectations could be too optimistic depending on how you view last week's events. Tesla has announced a transition to Tesla Vision, where it is ditching front-facing radar on vehicles and relying solely on computer vision for Autopilot and Full Self-Driving features. This started on US deliveries of the 3/Y in May, and will expand to the S/X and China made vehicles over time. For some, it's another confusing turn in the company's push for full autonomy, as there are still no robo-taxis on the road (Elon Musk promised a million of them in 2020) and fully autonomous driving timelines remain unclear.\nI bring up the radar move because there were some skeptics on Twitter wondering what the true motive was for ditching radar. The thought process there was that Tesla did it due to the chip shortage, or other supply chain issues, that were greatly impacting the company's production. Would Tesla dump radar solely as a move to meet the quarter's numbers? That question gained a little more traction on Friday as reports out of Asia suggested just that. If there were only enough materials to put radar in 150,000 vehicles in the quarter, removing it to assure that you get over that 200,000 level could be the only option.\nAnyone that has followed the automotive industry this year knows that the chip shortage is impacting production. From auto giants like Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) to even smaller Chinese names like NIO (NIO), production at facilities across the globe has been shut down at times due to this issue. Interestingly enough, Tesla's US delivery estimate times for the Model 3/Y right now are at 3-13 weeks for most parts of the country as seen below.\n(Source: Tesla US Model Y site,seen here)\nThat's a very large range for this time of the quarter, where usually the range is much smaller. On the same day a year ago, just a few weeks after the Fremont factory reopened, Model 3 delivery estimates were 4-6 weeks, a range difference of just 2 weeks. If you remember the article above about removing radar, Electrek stated that Made in China vehicles weren't ditching radar just yet. Delivery times in China are currently at 1-3 weeks for the Model 3/Y, which would seem to suggest there is less supply chain uncertainty there. Tesla now delaying its Model S Plaid launch event by a week only adds to questions regarding the supply chain.\nThe other issue that some investors are worrying about is Elon Musk's focus lately on cryptocurrencies. A visit to his Twitter page, as well a watching of his appearance on Saturday Night Live, have some questioning what's most important to him right now. As the chart below shows, Bitcoin prices have fallen recently, and are closer to the point where Tesla would need to impair its asset value at the end of Q2. A billion and a half dollar position is getting way too much focus for a company with a fully diluted market cap of roughly $700 billion. As a result, those that want to highlight the growth story of the business are upset that so much coverage is going where it is.\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nAs for Tesla shares, while they are well off their all-time highs, they have rebounded nicely from their recent mid $500s lows. As of Friday's close, the stock is basically halfway between its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The gap between those key technical levels continues to close, and that will likely continue until this stock makes a significant move in one direction. The street sees the stock as slightly undervalued currently, being that the average price target is $663.36.\nAs we enter the final month of Q2, Tesla investors are looking for some clarity regarding the business. There are increasing questions regarding production levels, not only because of the chip shortages, but Tesla's removal of radar from vehicles. With the company not providing much color into these issues, investors have thus focused more on Elon Musk's growing fascination with cryptocurrencies, so Tesla shares have trended with Bitcoin in recent weeks. Hopefully, we'll get more of an idea on how things are looking at next week's Model S Plaid event, as the stock looks to break out of its moving average trading gap.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":111986280,"gmtCreate":1622649106540,"gmtModify":1634099563768,"author":{"id":"3555626756077268","authorId":"3555626756077268","name":"KelZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4859868e191f5e2dd0d09e5167a6015a","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555626756077268","authorIdStr":"3555626756077268"},"htmlText":"Can't wait for 10 June for Model S Plaid deliveries! Want to see how it will be like a 🚀!!&nbsp;Tesla's moon beings, please like and comment!&nbsp;","listText":"Can't wait for 10 June for Model S Plaid deliveries! Want to see how it will be like a 🚀!!&nbsp;Tesla's moon beings, please like and comment!&nbsp;","text":"Can't wait for 10 June for Model S Plaid deliveries! Want to see how it will be like a 🚀!! Tesla's moon beings, please like and comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111986280","repostId":1137630619,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113716999,"gmtCreate":1622640538111,"gmtModify":1634099691297,"author":{"id":"3582637292455335","authorId":"3582637292455335","name":"PeiYi99","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/106de96bbc6719df0070ae1f2a3daa28","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582637292455335","authorIdStr":"3582637292455335"},"htmlText":"All the best","listText":"All the best","text":"All the best","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113716999","repostId":1137630619,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113731982,"gmtCreate":1622639688646,"gmtModify":1634099699703,"author":{"id":"3581725928308654","authorId":"3581725928308654","name":"KH17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581725928308654","authorIdStr":"3581725928308654"},"htmlText":"The speculation that removing radar is to still hit delivery numbers in order to overcome&nbsp;chip shortages sounds highly unlikely imo. Tesla wouldn’t put out an inferior product and&nbsp;risk their reputation for short term gain.&nbsp;","listText":"The speculation that removing radar is to still hit delivery numbers in order to overcome&nbsp;chip shortages sounds highly unlikely imo. Tesla wouldn’t put out an inferior product and&nbsp;risk their reputation for short term gain.&nbsp;","text":"The speculation that removing radar is to still hit delivery numbers in order to overcome chip shortages sounds highly unlikely imo. Tesla wouldn’t put out an inferior product and risk their reputation for short term gain.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113731982","repostId":1137630619,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4546959,"gmtCreate":1622640527766,"gmtModify":1635391211396,"authorId":3581720614399200,"author":{"id":3581720614399200,"idStr":"3581720614399200","authorId":3581720614399200,"name":"68fc893","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":113731982,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"reply back thank <u>you</u>","text":"reply back thank <u>you</u>","html":"reply back thank <u>you</u>"},{"id":4556773,"gmtCreate":1622689334391,"gmtModify":1635390449936,"authorId":3581725928308654,"author":{"id":3581725928308654,"idStr":"3581725928308654","authorId":3581725928308654,"name":"KH17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":113731982,"type":1,"supId":4546959,"prevId":0,"content":"U r well come ","text":"U r well come ","html":"U r well come "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113794429,"gmtCreate":1622639332261,"gmtModify":1634099702848,"author":{"id":"3585523674373467","authorId":"3585523674373467","name":"Zhiwei996","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6365956853f581b591422381b6228c","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585523674373467","authorIdStr":"3585523674373467"},"htmlText":"In it for the long run","listText":"In it for the long run","text":"In it for the long run","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113794429","repostId":1137630619,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113798744,"gmtCreate":1622638949588,"gmtModify":1622638949588,"author":{"id":"3498090659882812","authorId":"3498090659882812","name":"曌迎甴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec060c2c43936c09668a739d625c9282","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3498090659882812","authorIdStr":"3498090659882812"},"htmlText":"老马，你在推特上闭嘴吧[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"老马，你在推特上闭嘴吧[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"老马，你在推特上闭嘴吧[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113798744","repostId":1137630619,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":113704953,"gmtCreate":1622638412572,"gmtModify":1634099709280,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579784300187475","authorIdStr":"3579784300187475"},"htmlText":"Buy!","listText":"Buy!","text":"Buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113704953","repostId":1137630619,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":29,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.0","shortVersion":"4.29.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1137630619"}