准确预测美股去年崩盘的大佬：清算之日即将到来

腾讯美股2021-04-28

投资者应该对估值、情绪、风险偏好等的过度扩张给予足够关注。一年多以前，一位华尔街策略师成功预见到了2020年美股大崩盘，而现在，他发出了警告，称“清算之日即将到来”，并预测股市未来很多年内都很难提供得体的回报。在亨里奇（Sven Henrich）看来，一切都已经再清楚不过了——美股市场就是处在一场实实在在的泡沫当中。这不单单是感觉，更是他研究了一系列指标之后所得出的结论。美国股市总市值对美国...

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精彩评论

haiwei183
2021-04-29
haiwei183
准吗？
顺风而行98
2021-04-29
顺风而行98
存多点子弹，2024年前可能回来一次大崩盘
- haiwei183:
  好
StevenZ
2021-04-29
StevenZ
只要天天喊跌总有蒙对的时候
- 反卡:
  蒙错很快就过去了，蒙对了就封神
- 阿麦小乔:
  [强]
Derick的日间
2021-04-29
Derick的日间
疫情清算？你是要世界毁灭么？健康回调可能性大。财报季拉高出货，顺势回调，然后来10年国债。。
- __小曦曦:
  [无语] [无语]
洞幽烛远
2021-04-28
洞幽烛远
预测大师太多了[笑哭] [捂脸]
UC震惊部主编
2021-04-28
UC震惊部主编
阴跌，不会马上跳水
- Derick的日间:
  跌，然后还是牛，至少2021年还是绿色的

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“你们可以不顾增税、不顾债务、不顾估值，但是归根结底，不顾这些都是将你们自己置于风险之下。”\n\n他警告说，“清算之日即将到来。”\n亨里奇还表示，伴随疫苗日益铺开，财政刺激力度持续提升，联储未必就会一直保持对市场这种全力支持的态度。他指出，在当前的氛围当中，像美国银行这样的机构已经觉得自己的财务高度安全，甚至开始大量回购股票了。\n2020年2月20日，即美股市场来到上一轮牛市高点前后，亨里奇在自己公司的网站上写道：\n\n “在我看来，市场已经来到了2000年以来最危险的境地。”\n\n果然，在那之后大约一个月的时间里，伴随疫情的突然爆发，标普500指数下跌了近35%。\n然而，局面随之改变，伴随市场强势反弹，过去十二个月的时间当中，投资者的乐观程度称得上是到了令人瞠目结舌的地步，去年11月疫苗利好消息传出之后尤甚。4月又是一个美股强势的月份，月初以来标普500指数上涨了大约5%，不断创下新高。\n这种情况下，华尔街的专家们越发谨慎起来。日前，美国银行发出警告说，投资者应该对估值、情绪、风险偏好等的过度扩张给予足够关注。他们的标普500指数目标点位较之当下的实际点位要低了大约9%。美银首席美股策略师萨布拉玛尼安（Savita Subramanian）在4月14日发布的研究报告当中写道：\n\n “在市场情绪欣快症气味日益浓烈、估值高企、刺激达到顶峰的情况下，我们持续认定，市场对这些利好消息的消化已经过度了。我们依然看好美国经济的前景，但并不看好标普500指数。”\n\n法国兴业银行策略师爱德华兹（Albert Edwards）也警告说，众多指标都显示市场已经涨过了头。虽然其他多数观察家都不曾预言将有大规模的抛售发生，但是主流观点在标普500指数今年还能涨多少这一点上，看法确实是相当保守的。\n在这种情况下，投资者的股票投资难度也就大幅度提升了。伴随经济逐渐重启，消费者打开已经是满满的钱包，支出预计将大为增长，但问题在于，这一利好也已经提前被市场看到和消化了。\n正如摩根士丹利的威尔森（Mike 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