蔚来估值太低，还能再翻一翻？

金十数据2023-04-07

有分析师认为，蔚来交付量与营收前景向好，目前估值仍过低，预计未来两三年还能再翻一番。蔚来股价过去六个月变化不大，该公司3月份的交付量也没怎么推动股价上涨。然而，作者相信，随着国内经济重启，汽车交付量继续增加，今年蔚来股价或有起色。蔚来2月份的交付量确实出现了强劲反弹，同比飙升98%，交付超过1.2万辆车。3月份交付量也稳定在每月1万辆以上，蔚来继续积极扩大汽车产量，目前交付比例已升至近70%。从...

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精彩评论

xxclzzzz
2023-04-08
xxclzzzz
保守了吧
JaydenChen93
2023-04-07
JaydenChen93
这是庄家要高位套现啊，韭菜们快上

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SUV取得了巨大成功，一向是畅销车型，销量也一直很强劲。由于理想的专注于一款SUV，生产线也更简单，因此这家中国车企的产量和交付量增速比竞争对手更快。蔚来汽车的月度交付量目前约为7000辆蔚来交付增长靠的是ET5和ET7的产量提高。ET5和ET7已经取代了蔚来SUV组合的大幅增量。蔚来3月份交付了7175辆电动车，占轿车交付份额的近70%，环比增长10个百分点。显然，轿车生产和交付正在改善蔚来的整体交付业绩，预计到今年年底，蔚来的轿车交付份额将增加到75-80%。估值可翻倍？蔚来目前的估值不到2024财年收入的1倍，考虑到中国经济刚刚重启，而且蔚来从春节低迷的销售状态中迅速反弹，其目前的估值乘数太低了。中国经济2023财年的增长速度几乎是去年的两倍，相信蔚来的交付情况可能会改善，公司的估值前景也是如此。三年来，受疫情影响，消费者需求一直被抑制，中国(和蔚来)或面临着潜在需求爆发。与其他电动汽车竞争对手相比，蔚来的营收前景也比较有吸引力，目前增速超过小鹏。与历史市盈率相比，蔚来汽车具有很大的重估潜力。蔚来汽车去年的平均市盈率为1.95倍，如果该公司2023财年继续扩大ET5和ET7车型的生产规模，蔚来完全可以恢复到估值水平。营收方面，蔚来预计将快速增长，明年营收同比预计增长45%。分析人士预计，今年蔚来的增长将达到74%，因此该公司的增长前景并不像目前的市场价那样黯淡。风险目前最大的风险是，中国经济重启并没有引起需求爆发，对蔚来汽车的生产和交付增长前景不利。蔚来汽车产量增长放缓也是一个潜在的风险因素，可能会拖累其估值。在作者看来，蔚来最大的运营风险是，核心市场价格战侵蚀了汽车的利润率，或导致盈利日期推迟。总结蔚来2月份的生产和交付均现喜人反弹，3月份交付水平超过1万辆大关。受ET5和ET7生产提速推动，3月份汽车交付份额从上月的58.6%上升至近70%。蔚来的股价仍然相当便宜，预计未来两年该公司的营收将大幅增长，作者认为这还没有完全反映在蔚来的估值中。尽管蔚来去年月度产量/交付量较低，但其估值曾比目前高得多，蔚来的估值翻一番也是合理的，而且也不会高估。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":653265288,"gmtCreate":1680964492644,"gmtModify":1680964494032,"author":{"id":"3541415169882922","authorId":"3541415169882922","authorIdStr":"3541415169882922","name":"xxclzzzz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bc0252ab727779ccb4df5ab759889b9","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3541415169882922"},"htmlText":"保守了吧","listText":"保守了吧","text":"保守了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653265288","repostId":1136185724,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":653208212,"gmtCreate":1680862029936,"gmtModify":1680862112849,"author":{"id":"4095224693422900","authorId":"4095224693422900","authorIdStr":"4095224693422900","name":"JaydenChen93","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4095224693422900"},"htmlText":"这是庄家要高位套现啊，韭菜们快上","listText":"这是庄家要高位套现啊，韭菜们快上","text":"这是庄家要高位套现啊，韭菜们快上","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653208212","repostId":1136185724,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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