抱团要瓦解？机构慌了？看看“聪明资金”怎么操作

证券时报网2021-02-21

这个周末，市场谈论比较激烈的是：随着抱团股接连下挫，机构抱团是否会瓦解？牛市前两个交易日，市场“二八风格”风格出现逆转，以贵州茅台为代表的机构重仓股接连下挫，而多数中小盘股呈现接连反弹走势，开市第二个交易日更是以百股涨停方式迎接牛年。值得注意的是，在机构重仓股下跌的过程中，被市场誉为“聪明资金”的北向资金逆势增持，两天净买入146亿元，宁德时代、洋河股份、迈瑞医疗、美的集团等股价下跌，北向资金...

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逐步涨
2021-02-22
逐步涨
哎
YitHong
2021-02-21
YitHong
都去哪了？
tianyang1234
2021-02-21
tianyang1234
厉害
LDMLWX
2021-02-21
LDMLWX
[微笑]
奧運會
2021-02-21
奧運會
是

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The agency panicked? 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works","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e27c8db6e8e8e9d23accd47605390c","symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9},"content_text":"这个周末，市场谈论比较激烈的是：随着抱团股接连下挫，机构抱团是否会瓦解？\n牛市前两个交易日，市场“二八风格”风格出现逆转，以贵州茅台为代表的机构重仓股接连下挫，而多数中小盘股呈现接连反弹走势，开市第二个交易日更是以百股涨停方式迎接牛年。\n值得注意的是，在机构重仓股下跌的过程中，被市场誉为“聪明资金”的北向资金逆势增持，两天净买入146亿元，宁德时代、洋河股份、迈瑞医疗、美的集团等股价下跌，北向资金增持金额居前。\n牛年机构抱团股为何大跌？\nA股春节假期休市期间，外围市场整体表现稳定，在没有重大利空消息影响下，前期机构关注的白酒、新能源、医药等板块龙头股纷纷大跌，而中小盘股却获得资金关注，反弹幅度明显，市场运行风格与年前出现显著的变化。\n具体来看，白酒龙头股贵州茅台牛年首个交易日跌5%，次日延续跌势，但跌幅收窄至0.45%，两个交易日累计下跌5.42%；锂电池巨头宁德时代两个交易日累计下跌6.1%；家电龙头美的集团两个交易日累计下跌8.51%；医药龙头药明康德两个交易日累计下跌6.5%；安防龙头海康威视两个交易日累计下跌6.55%…\n\n机构抱团股纷纷大跌，多数中小盘股获得资金关注，接连出现反弹走势，2月19日两市更是出现百股涨停，中小盘股无疑是涨停的主要成分。据Wind统计，牛年前两个交易日，市值10亿至50亿的股票平均涨幅为6.62%；市值50亿至100亿的股票平均涨幅为5.84%；市值100亿至500亿的股票平均涨幅为3.91%。\n对于近期市场表现，东吴证券分析认为，节后两个交易日，以贵州茅台为代表的价值蓝筹股大跌的原因主要有以下几点：\n首先是美债收益率不断走高。东吴证券认为，核心消费公司的估值与美债收益率的反向相关性变强，而与短期业绩关联度明显下降。全球宏观层面上的利率、流动性、通胀等问题才是值得关注的焦点。美债利率的攀升不仅可能限制美股股市市盈率的上行空间，也会传导至其他国家市场，从而导致高估值的股票承受巨大压力，特别是在核心股票正处于历史估值高位区间的时候。\n其次是央行收紧流动性。东吴证券指出，抱团票由于估值普遍偏高，流动性是支撑它们涨不停的最重要原因。2月18日，央妈就回收流动性，开展了200亿的逆回购，但是有2800亿到期，另外开展了2000亿MLF刚好对冲掉到期的2000亿MLF，总体而言回收了2600亿的流动性。2月19日再次回收800亿7天期逆回购。这些动作再次体现了“紧平衡”的意图。这也给高估值成长股带来了不小的压力。\n再次是全球经济复苏曙光已现，化工、金属、机械、建材建筑和出口产业链，以及银行、券商、龙头地产基本面较为扎实，相关行业2021年盈利增速很可能比下游的消费行业更高。这些板块的估值与机构配置比例目前都处于历史低位。由于切换出来的资金体量较大，化工、有色等顺周期板块正好有足够的空间承接这些资金。\n北向资金逆势增持\n尽管医药生物、新能源、白酒等机构抱团板块牛年前两个交易日股价大跌，但北向资金持股数据显示，多数大跌的龙头股获其增持。\n北向资金两个交易日合计净买入146.27亿元，其中北向资金通过沪股通净买入44.73亿元，深股通净买入101.54亿元。\n按照行业划分，医药生物、银行、电气设备、有色金属等20个行业板块获净买入，其中，医药生物、银行、电气设备等行业板块净买入金额超20亿元，有色金属、农林牧渔、计算机等行业板块净买入金额超10亿元。而电子、汽车、交通运输、国防军工、食品饮料等8个行业板块被其净卖出。\n值得注意的是，医药生物板块近两个交易日跌幅明显，反而成为北向资金的第一净买入方向。新能源板块也获其关注，电气设备行业净买入24.93亿元。银行因其估值偏低，净买入28.14亿元。\n\n个股方面，宁德时代两个交易日获北向资金净买入14.65亿元，净买入金额最多，而该股走势并不乐观，近两个交易日接连呈现调整走势，累计跌幅达6.1%。\n值得注意的是，同样作为白酒股，贵州茅台被北向资金净卖出12.47亿元，而五粮液则被净买入14.33亿元，北向资金在白酒股的交易层面，着实有点矛盾。\n此外，洋河股份、迈瑞医疗、美的集团、金域医学、海尔之家、先导智能等近期跌幅明显的个股，也均获北向净买入。\n\n与此同时，上海机场等部分个股近期虽然走势较好，但却被北向资金大量净卖出，两个交易日内，北向资金净卖出上海机场金额达19.63亿元。新能源个股比亚迪、恩捷股份股价下跌，北向资金卖出金额也较多。立讯精密、歌尔股份、京东方A等电子行业龙头也被北向资金净卖出。\n\n（注：北上资金增减持金额数据主要根据每日晚间公布的全量沪深港通持股数据测算，行业、个股增减持金额以每日增减持股数乘以每日成交均价，数值可能与真实交易数据略有误差。）\n抱团未来将如何演绎？\n年初以来，A股市场持续上演“二八分化”格局，机构抱团愈演愈烈，“抱团股”强势上涨，引发市场对其估值的担忧。近期“抱团股”出现明显回调，投资者对于“龙头抱团过紧”，“抱团瓦解”的担忧开始加剧。那么抱团是否会就此瓦解？中小盘行情能否持续？抱团未来又将如何演绎？\n东吴证券认为，国内基金新发规模依然较高，海外资金风险偏好提升，待入市资金规模庞大，充裕的市场流动性将推动A股慢涨格局。随着基金新发规模边际降低，市场极致的分化将持续缓解，但整体抱团风格不会发生变化。需要注意的是2021年资金面可能和2020年有所不同，虽然不会急转弯但收紧已经是可以预见的。在这种情况下，股市不会出现大牛市格局。\n中泰证券表示，合理的估值是博弈和交易出来的，但在多空体系不平衡下，博弈出的价格容易失真。与美国等发达市场相比，A股个股做空机制仍不完善。只要公司及行业基本面不发生根本变化，“抱团”似乎难以“瓦解”。\n但在急剧的二八效应、甚至一九效应之下，过分的头部集中意味着较大的估值分层，头部公司享有较高估值、甚至是过分的估值溢价，而中尾部公司估值长期折价，市场价值甚至远低于其内含价值，长此以往将会影响股市的融资功能和一级市场的投资。同时，伴随政策常态化、防风险加强，信用“收缩”通道开启，企业再融资压力趋于上升，市场的资源配置功能将会减弱甚至失效，这与提升直接融资占比，助力经济结构转型的大方向也无疑是背道而驰的。\n中泰证券指出，全球资本市场逐步呈现“泡沫化”之下，高估值对货币政策边际变化的敏感度显著提升，一旦美联储加息预期升温，全球流动性面临收紧，高估值甚至“泡沫化”的市场意味着较大的潜在风险。\n招商证券此前也提示，纵观A股历史，抱团行情发生不止一次，这种极致的市场行情给坚定持有的投资者带了了丰厚的回报，然而过往几次的抱团行情持续3至4年后均以瓦解告终。本轮消费抱团已经持续了3年左右，根据最新的基金定期报告，当前的持仓集中度仍然处于阶段性高位。若抱团出现瓦解，可以配置低估值、高营收能力的个股，同时也该兼顾个股弹性。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":360250611,"gmtCreate":1613947031133,"gmtModify":1634551827943,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576374040053118","authorIdStr":"3576374040053118"},"htmlText":"哎","listText":"哎","text":"哎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360250611","repostId":1136103993,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":360855518,"gmtCreate":1613889616334,"gmtModify":1634551938149,"author":{"id":"3567430121787999","authorId":"3567430121787999","name":"YitHong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0532db1f64e93ed7ffef4f8ad11ec09f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567430121787999","authorIdStr":"3567430121787999"},"htmlText":"都去哪了？","listText":"都去哪了？","text":"都去哪了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360855518","repostId":1136103993,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":360869192,"gmtCreate":1613885216116,"gmtModify":1634551956310,"author":{"id":"3569364515075417","authorId":"3569364515075417","name":"tianyang1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569364515075417","authorIdStr":"3569364515075417"},"htmlText":"厉害","listText":"厉害","text":"厉害","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper"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