Palantir: Enough Is Enough

Seeking Alpha2021-10-22

Summary Palantir's profitability is moving in the wrong direction and will continue to be weighed down by SBC. Growth is good but far from impressive, and competition is intensifying for both ...

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精彩评论

alexsander
2021-10-23
alexsander
agree
_J_R_
2021-10-22
_J_R_
DUMPING
- doubleZ:
  Yup dump them
KWHChye
2021-10-22
KWHChye
Dats right
T4S
2021-10-22
T4S
Like
- KWHChye:
  Yes boss
LuckyLucky
2021-10-22
LuckyLucky
Like
- LuckyLucky:
  like
sylarspock
2021-10-22
sylarspock
Interesting news. Buying More
- WangZhai:
  pls like in return. thank you

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Due to the nature of its activities, which involve cutting-edge AI technology, it is hard to quantify a TAM, potential revenues, and even profitability. With that said, what we are seeing is a trend of flattening profitability, revenue slowdown in certain areas, and increased competition in both government contracts and the private sector market.\nUltimately, I ask investors, why invest? Palantir's future is too uncertain to value, which makes it even harder to buy at today's incredibly lofty valuation. There are both better speculative plays out there and superior long-term investments. Palantir doesn't do it for me.\nPalantir's Model Is Not Profitable\nPalantir's model is simply not that profitable. This is not a traditional SaaS company, since Palantir relies on deploying teams of specialized workers for each particular project. As I've mentioned before, Palantir works in a way like a consulting company, which makes its costs much higher. The high remuneration of their employees, which are essential to the company, is behind the fact that stock-based compensation is so high, and this isn't going to change any time soon.\nWhat's most worrisome though, is that profitability has not improved in the latest quarters. Looking at Palantir's results, it's easy to get swept up by the large increase in profitability from 2020 to 2021. However, if we compare Q1 to Q2, we see a completely different story.\nSource: Investor Presentation Q1 and Investor Presentation Q2\nAs we can see, Palantir achieved a 34% operating margin in Q1, but only a 30% operating margin in Q2. And in fact, forward guidance from the Q2 slides suggests an operating margin of 22% in Q3.\nI believe the company may be deliberately low-balling this figure to deliver a \"surprise\", much like they have done with revenue. Ultimately, this begs the question; has Palantir's profitability already peaked? And if so, what's the appeal?\nGrowth Is Also Slowing Down\nThe answer to the second question posed above would be that Palantir can achieve high levels of growth. There's a lot of speculation around just how big Palantir's TAM could be. Every day, we hear of new applications for their technology, and the company likes to go into detail in their presentations. But this idea of hyper-growth isn't supported by current forecasts.\nQuince Market Insights projects that the data analytics market will grow at a CAGR of 25% in the next 10 years. That's a considerable amount for 10 years but, this isn't enough. Palantir itself also predicts that its long-term growth will be around 30%. This level of growth, combined with the above analysis of profitability doesn't paint a brilliant picture.\nFurthermore, we can see a worrying trend taking place in the company's revenue:\n\nSource: Investor Presentation Q1 and Investor Presentation Q2\nAs we can see above, YoY growth slowed down considerably from Q1 to Q2, going from 76% to 66%. Moreover, QoQ growth for government contracts was only around 11.5%.\nIn contrast to this, Palantir did manage to accelerate its private sector revenues, which grew 19% YoY in Q1 and 23% in Q2. Again though, QoQ growth was not that impressive, and even below that of government contracts, coming in at around 8.5%.\nPalantir has a strong grip on US government contracts and is also a growing force in the private sector. But where there is money to be made, there is the competition to face.\nCompetition Intensifies\nWhat a lot of Palantir bulls seem to miss, is that you can't have this amazing market opportunity without having new players come to take a piece of it. Cash on the table doesn't last long, and Palantir is under threat in both its commercial and government business.\nIn recent news, Palantir lost the $111 million FALCON contract is held with the Immigrations and Customs Enforcement agency. The question is; who is replacing Palantir? The answer is the US government. ICE will be using its custom-built data-mining and analytics tool known as RAVEn.\nThis recent action clearly outlines one of Palantir's most glaring weaknesses. As data analytics becomes more valuable, there are bigger incentives for competing companies to offer a similar service, or, even worse, for companies and governments to develop their tools.\nPalantir doesn't operate in a vacuum, and it has to compete with the likes of SAP SE(NYSE:SAP)and Booz Allen Hamilton Corporation(NYSE:BAH). There is nothing unique to what Palantir does, it simply does it better, which it should, given what it pays its employees.\nThe bottom line is, that Palantir doesn't operate in a vacuum and as AI becomes more mainstream, it will be harder for Palantir to sell proprietary software. Open-source is where it is at, and not only will there one may be better solutions to Palantir in the future, they might even be free.\nWhat To Look For In Q3\nPalantir is set to report Q3 results on November 11th, and while I am bearish, there is room for the company to surprise investors. The most important metrics to look for, in my opinion, will be quarterly changes in margins and revenue growth in the commercial sector.\nPalantir has deliberately set low expectations for the third quarter in terms of profitability. I expect these will be \"beat\", but there will still be a continued decline in profitability. With that said, if the company can continue to show strong momentum in its commercial segment, I do not doubt that investors will be pleased.\nUltimately, I can't justify investing in a company that has no long-term prospects of being profitable and shows moderate growth. Only an acceleration in these metrics would have me changing my mind, and the upcoming quarter will be a key factor in determining which way the trend is moving.\nThis article was written by The Value 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dump them ","text":"Yup dump them ","html":"Yup dump them "}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":851606744,"gmtCreate":1634898816015,"gmtModify":1634898816505,"author":{"id":"3559643628960690","authorId":"3559643628960690","name":"KWHChye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff28c38f154930713b0a64f6389191d8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Dats&nbsp;right&nbsp;","listText":"Dats&nbsp;right&nbsp;","text":"Dats right","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851606744","repostId":1136002956,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":851125919,"gmtCreate":1634884041859,"gmtModify":1634884042006,"author":{"id":"3571776703726113","authorId":"3571776703726113","name":"T4S","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1eebe3a27e867d958881321d626cdf2","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851125919","repostId":1136002956,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6288329,"gmtCreate":1634898850424,"gmtModify":1634898850456,"authorId":3559643628960690,"author":{"id":3559643628960690,"authorId":3559643628960690,"name":"KWHChye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff28c38f154930713b0a64f6389191d8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":851125919,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes boss ","text":"Yes boss ","html":"Yes boss 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news. Buying More&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting news. Buying More&nbsp;","text":"Interesting news. Buying More","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851168912","repostId":1136002956,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6288011,"gmtCreate":1634895991823,"gmtModify":1634895991857,"authorId":3561980891009703,"author":{"id":3561980891009703,"authorId":3561980891009703,"name":"WangZhai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc2671102b0ba42d45bf457532bb6784","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":851168912,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"pls like in return. thank you","text":"pls like in return. thank you","html":"pls like in return. thank you"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":26,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1136002956"}