Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider

seekingalpha2021-06-14

Summary Palantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot. Financial fundamentals are much better than the company is ...

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精彩评论

Kopibiiing
2021-06-17
Kopibiiing
Yeap
EuniceLST
2021-06-15
EuniceLST
[Happy] [Happy]
TheCSM
2021-06-14
TheCSM
Hodl
rae90
2021-06-14
rae90
Pltr is being underestimated
- Stylerz:
  that's great
- rae90:
  opportunity
- Stylerz:
  buy and hold
- rae90:
  good opportunity
domobc
2021-06-14
domobc
Please comment and 1 like Please. I am invested in this I do hope it can continue the growth
Stylerz
2021-06-14
Stylerz
Many contradicting views.. This is still a good company but I expect moderate amount of risks in investing
- rae90:
  dydd [财迷]
- rae90:
  hope this goes up quick

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It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.\nPartly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.\nIf you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.\nPLTR Stock Price\nLet's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.\nSource: YCharts.com\nIt's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).\nIf you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.\nSource: YCharts.com\nSince, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.\nPalantir Valuation\nBy way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.\nSource: YCharts.com\nFolks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock Xreallyworth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.\nPalantir today trades at the following multiples:\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.\nIs Palantir A Long-Term Stock?\nSo, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.\nSource: TipRanks\nWe think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).\nPalantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years\nFundamental Analysis\nThe first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked themupa little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).\nBack to valuation multiples for a moment.\nWhere valuation multiplesdomatter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.\nPut all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nFrom a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.\nChart Analysis\nChart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been awholelot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.\nThis chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.\nIf you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you alotabout the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.\nWe think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.\nSource: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:\n\nThis chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.\nThe wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.\nThe upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.\nNow the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why welovestock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.\nPalantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. Andthatmeans the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.\n\nSo, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.\nIs Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?\nIf you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":163187885,"gmtCreate":1623862874147,"gmtModify":1634026793515,"author":{"id":"3574313823566005","authorId":"3574313823566005","name":"Kopibiiing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6819f3551f3224879ddcd2632abba4a","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574313823566005","authorIdStr":"3574313823566005"},"htmlText":"Yeap","listText":"Yeap","text":"Yeap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163187885","repostId":1135926549,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":184231937,"gmtCreate":1623715228129,"gmtModify":1631889579760,"author":{"id":"3586246366715564","authorId":"3586246366715564","name":"EuniceLST","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586246366715564","authorIdStr":"3586246366715564"},"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy] [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184231937","repostId":1135926549,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":184949778,"gmtCreate":1623682080494,"gmtModify":1631891119707,"author":{"id":"3576144409995554","authorId":"3576144409995554","name":"TheCSM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6efc7d366993c14843b768fab99c5631","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576144409995554","authorIdStr":"3576144409995554"},"htmlText":"Hodl","listText":"Hodl","text":"Hodl","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184949778","repostId":1135926549,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":185725141,"gmtCreate":1623674815083,"gmtModify":1634030273968,"author":{"id":"3568861531931848","authorId":"3568861531931848","name":"rae90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568861531931848","authorIdStr":"3568861531931848"},"htmlText":"Pltr 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<u>great</u>"},{"id":4748641,"gmtCreate":1623675029206,"gmtModify":1635321990528,"authorId":3568861531931848,"author":{"id":3568861531931848,"idStr":"3568861531931848","authorId":3568861531931848,"name":"rae90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":185725141,"type":1,"supId":4748635,"prevId":0,"content":"opportunity","text":"opportunity","html":"opportunity"},{"id":4756459,"gmtCreate":1623714010553,"gmtModify":1635321340369,"authorId":3577619205438357,"author":{"id":3577619205438357,"idStr":"3577619205438357","authorId":3577619205438357,"name":"Stylerz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":185725141,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"buy and hold","text":"buy and hold","html":"buy and hold"},{"id":4756481,"gmtCreate":1623714074576,"gmtModify":1635321338014,"authorId":3568861531931848,"author":{"id":3568861531931848,"idStr":"3568861531931848","authorId":3568861531931848,"name":"rae90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":185725141,"type":1,"supId":4748635,"prevId":0,"content":"good opportunity","text":"good opportunity","html":"good opportunity"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":185570068,"gmtCreate":1623663103454,"gmtModify":1634030492493,"author":{"id":"3582802213639011","authorId":"3582802213639011","name":"domobc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1230c5b4be38e40590000c7377cfbaad","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582802213639011","authorIdStr":"3582802213639011"},"htmlText":"Please comment and 1 like Please. I am invested in this I do hope it can continue the growth","listText":"Please comment and 1 like Please. I am invested in this I do hope it can continue the growth","text":"Please comment and 1 like Please. I am invested in this I do hope it can continue the growth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185570068","repostId":1135926549,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":185886870,"gmtCreate":1623641218690,"gmtModify":1634030772366,"author":{"id":"3577619205438357","authorId":"3577619205438357","name":"Stylerz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577619205438357","authorIdStr":"3577619205438357"},"htmlText":"Many contradicting views.. This is still a good company but I&nbsp;expect moderate amount of risks in investing","listText":"Many contradicting views.. This is still a good company but I&nbsp;expect moderate amount of risks in investing","text":"Many contradicting views.. This is still a good company but I expect moderate amount of risks in investing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185886870","repostId":1135926549,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4748542,"gmtCreate":1623674749588,"gmtModify":1635321998162,"authorId":3568861531931848,"author":{"id":3568861531931848,"idStr":"3568861531931848","authorId":3568861531931848,"name":"rae90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":185886870,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"dydd [财迷]","text":"dydd [财迷]","html":"dydd [财迷]"},{"id":4748583,"gmtCreate":1623674865999,"gmtModify":1635321994854,"authorId":3568861531931848,"author":{"id":3568861531931848,"idStr":"3568861531931848","authorId":3568861531931848,"name":"rae90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":185886870,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hope this goes up <u>quick</u>","text":"hope this goes up <u>quick</u>","html":"hope this goes up <u>quick</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":122,"commentSize":57,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1135926549"}