Nvidia Is A Real Threat, But AMD Has Proven Its Mettle

seekingalpha2021-06-21

Summary AMD has outmaneuvered Intel despite having a much smaller R&D budget and looks to continue its superiority. NVDA is AMD’s true challenger with its foray into Arm-based architecture CPU that’s...

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精彩评论

手可摘棉花
2021-06-22
手可摘棉花
$49 as support line? That’s 40% down!
TanSweeSing
2021-06-22
TanSweeSing
Yh
BotakGuy
2021-06-21
BotakGuy
AMD… too many good news ? Means price willgo down
2021koon
2021-06-21
2021koon
Maybe more upside for amd
ahchai
2021-06-21
ahchai
Good
CeciLi
2021-06-21
CeciLi
Pls like and comment

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AMD clearly outperformed INTC in multiple categories and offers its users the best \"performance-per-dollar\" experience that investors may be forgiven to think that AMD is actually the outright market share leader right now.\nIn addition, INTC's comfort zone in integrated graphics card in the retail market will be facing competition from AMD soon when it launches theCezanne Ryzen 5000 APUs in Augustthat will mark the company's first integrated APU foray targeting the retail Desktop PC market to further extend AMD's lead in the categories that it has been dominating lately below:\n\nGaming performance: Tie in mass market. AMD's lead in the high end segment.\nProductivity and Content Creation Performance (Non-gaming): AMD is the clear winner.\nProcessor specifications and features: AMD is the clear winner.\nOverclocking potential: INTC is the clear winner.\nPower consumption and heat: AMD is the clear winner.\nLithography: AMD is the clear winner.\nCPU drivers and software: INTC is the clear winner.\nCPU Architecture: AMD is the clear winner.\nCPU Security: AMD is the clear winner.\n\nMarket share of AMD x86 CPUs worldwide. Data source:Tom's Hardware, Mercury Research\nTherefore, it should not be surprising that INTC owned 79.3% of the x86 CPU market in Q1'21, down from a high of 89.4% in Q3'18. INTC has lost over 10% points of its market share in less than 3 years as AMD's technical superiority over INTC and its astute R&D focus is likely to push AMD forward to further slice up INTC's CPU dominance.\n\nINTC and AMD R&D. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhat's even more surprising for INTC's technological blunders is that the company spent a huge amount of its revenue on R&D (INTC LTM R&D: $15.12B), with a budget that is 7x of what AMD (AMD LTM R&D: $2.15B) spent. Moreover, AMD has been\"very disciplined\"with its R&D spending as we could see LTM R&D margin going down as a percentage of revenue from 24% in Q1'19 to 18.8% in Q1'21, and all this while gaining market share against INTC.\nAgainst this backdrop, INTC's R&D margin has remained consistent as it continued to spend between 19.5% and 20.7% of its revenue over the same period. This goes to show that the folks over at AMD have really attained a very high level of R&D proficiency, coupled with the much smaller R&D budget as compared to what INTC had. AMD has demonstrated that the size of R&D budgets alone may not necessarily win the game in this highly competitive industry. It's where and how you invest the budget that counted the most, and AMD surely had their R&D investments all in the right areas.\nThe Real Challenger is Nvidia\n\nAMD and Nvidia (NVDA) discrete GPU [dGPU] shipment share. Data source: Jon Peddie Research\nWhile AMD seemed to have a relatively easy time in the CPU market against INTC, the same cannot be said in the dGPU accelerator market against the clear leader: NVDA. In fact, NVDA has further consolidated its lead in this market from its 72% shipment share in Q1'19 to 81% in Q1'21, further weakening AMD's grip in this segment.\nIn addition, with NVDA's pending ARM acquisition (the company is expecting to close the deal in early 2022) and itsGrace Arm-based data center CPUfor AI and high-performance computing [HPC] in early 2023, NVDA has made it clear that it intended to further extend its TAM by also crossing over to INTC's and AMD's customary stronghold.\n\nRevenue from AI-driven hardware market. Data source: Tractica\nBy referring to the chart above, investors should be able to observe clearly how crossing over to the CPU market would further extend its TAM for NVDA as that market (CPU, ASIC, FPGA, SoC) is expected to drive the largest sources of revenue which is expected to be more than 3x the data center GPU accelerator market that NVDA already owns a90% share in.\nAMD has also consolidated its position in this market on the pending closure of its Xilinx (XLNX) acquisition by the end of 2021. As this acquisition would provide the company the market leadership in FPGA, which have been discussedwidelyin thetech communityon whether it's better than GPU accelerators for AI. I find that the FPGA leadership would add another important element to defend AMD against NVDA's impending entry into the CPU segment, which if executed well could still represent a formidable challenge against NVDA in the growing AI-driven hardware market which is expected to grow rapidly.\nTherefore, the jury is still out on whether NVDA's foray into the data center CPU market would take significant market share away from AMD. However, one thing for sure, NVDA is going to likely be using its own Arm-based Grace CPUs in the future, and AMD may thus lose this share of revenue from NVDA. It's still too early to determine the likely revenue impact as AMD may likely offset it from other revenue streams, even if it does not partake in NVDA's GPU-driven growth in the future by supplying them with its CPUs.\nWhat's more of a concern though is whether NVDA's Arm-based CPU would become the future leader that may render AMD's and INTC's x86-based CPUs less relevant. In addition, the competition does not just come from the processor itself as NVDA has the CUDA X SDK that offers a clear competitiveadvantage over AMD's Rocmthrough its strong and growing community of developers.\n\nPerformance of Armed-based processors vs x86. Data source: Wikibon\nIn the above study, we could see clearly that for matrix workloads that typically require large amounts of data to be processed, the performance of Arm-based processors was found to be 50x better than x86 architecture, while for traditional workloads, x86 had the slight edge. Therefore, for deep-learning, machine learning and AI-driven workloads, it seems that NVDA's Grace CPU may have a strong fighting chance of taking away market share from AMD and INTC, if we assume that both companies do not assimilate Arm architecture into its future design.\nThis may also be further complicated if NVDA is able to successfully complete the Arm acquisition, ramifications of which are currently unknown, even though the tech behemoths have already made their objections to NVDA's acquisition, in the view that theymay not be grantedthe same level of access after the acquisition.\n\nArm-based enterprise server processor revenue projections. Data source: Wikibon\nFurthermore, the revenue for Arm-based enterprise server is expected to grow rapidly from just $4.1B in 2019 to $82B by 2030, which would represent a phenomenal CAGR of 31.3%.\nA silver lining here is that AMD has clarified multiple times that it has the right capability to work with Arm's architecture if necessary:\n\n So look, we know the ARM architecture well. Certainly, our engineers know it well. And we consider ARM a partner in many respects. We use ARM IP in various aspects of our devices. In terms of that specific custom ARM design, we don't have that in plans right now. In terms of whether we would do custom ARM designs, I think the answer is yes. That's the whole idea of the semi-custom business. And so I think it's less about ARM versus x86 and much more about having the right IP in the right sort of combination to satisfy sort of the customer solutions.\n\nOne key aspect here is that AMD currently doesn't have any Arm-based design while NVDA will be launching its Grace CPUs in a little less than two years. While NVDA's entry with its Arm-based CPU is beginning soon, I believe AMD will be watching the developments very closely, and I expect the company to act decisively if it deems that an Arm-based product is absolutely necessary. The company has demonstrated the size of the R&D budget doesn't really matter, and taking on a much bigger rival like INTC is not something that it's new to. Therefore, investors shouldn't think AMD will be out of the game so early on.\nTherefore, I believe that AMD and NVDA both represent great opportunities for investors to consider, and they should both act as a hedge against the other. As a result, owning both of these stocks should allow investors to participate in two marvelous companies that should be able to provide superior long term returns from their growth drivers.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\n\nSource: TradingView\nAMD's strong long-term uptrend bias should offer investors a lot of confidence in what the market thinks of the company. The 50W MA has often acted as a strong support for a while now and offers investors an amazing opportunity to add more positions whenever the price retraced to the 50W, as recently as May, along the support level of $71.6. Therefore investors should find a possible entry point if the price retraces to that level in future.\nOne caveat though is the flush-up in price that we observed in July 20 where in price action parlance, we usually refer to such a flush-up as bearish in nature (signifying possible bull trap price action). Therefore, the support level at $49 remains in play if this bull trap bearish signal should play out in the future. However, investors should use the $49 level as a point where they should add even more positions to this long term leader.\nWrapping It All Up\nAMD has demonstrated clearly that it could maintain a superior technological edge over its much larger CPU rival: INTC despite having a much smaller R&D budget, which is indicative of its superior technological know-how and its high R&D efficiencies. Investors in AMD should be assured of the company's bright prospects ahead.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":129102988,"gmtCreate":1624362981744,"gmtModify":1634007282595,"author":{"id":"3579342217954724","authorId":"3579342217954724","name":"手可摘棉花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb5d81ca4420febc27175fcd21eb90b2","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579342217954724","idStr":"3579342217954724"},"htmlText":"$49 as support line? That’s 40% down!","listText":"$49 as support line? That’s 40% down!","text":"$49 as support line? That’s 40% down!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129102988","repostId":1135743520,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":120870919,"gmtCreate":1624320024631,"gmtModify":1631891333952,"author":{"id":"3554700914633647","authorId":"3554700914633647","name":"TanSweeSing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b07abefe4f35031b3287f68cd5e8c668","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3554700914633647","idStr":"3554700914633647"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;Yh","listText":"&nbsp;Yh","text":"Yh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120870919","repostId":1135743520,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":167263948,"gmtCreate":1624271314684,"gmtModify":1634008622735,"author":{"id":"3557831813182222","authorId":"3557831813182222","name":"BotakGuy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a8a7afc7644e0f8f2635094f19c39d","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3557831813182222","idStr":"3557831813182222"},"htmlText":"AMD… too many good news ? Means price willgo down","listText":"AMD… too many good news ? Means price willgo down","text":"AMD… too many good news ? Means price willgo down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167263948","repostId":1135743520,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":167282094,"gmtCreate":1624270884318,"gmtModify":1634008628352,"author":{"id":"3575363327829260","authorId":"3575363327829260","name":"2021koon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad08d3b98fb2d860daf2e2b2916dc11e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575363327829260","idStr":"3575363327829260"},"htmlText":"Maybe more upside for amd","listText":"Maybe more upside for amd","text":"Maybe more upside for amd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167282094","repostId":1135743520,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":167283471,"gmtCreate":1624270629293,"gmtModify":1631889812131,"author":{"id":"3571550779586853","authorId":"3571550779586853","name":"ahchai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3571550779586853","idStr":"3571550779586853"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167283471","repostId":1135743520,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":167280703,"gmtCreate":1624270504402,"gmtModify":1634008632389,"author":{"id":"3580709888891343","authorId":"3580709888891343","name":"CeciLi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c84d7339be75b2d5f77e2eee702149e0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3580709888891343","idStr":"3580709888891343"},"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167280703","repostId":1135743520,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":57,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1135743520"}