The Tech Bubble Is Not In QQQ

seekingalpha2021-05-13

Summary The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF offers investors high quality access to a diversified portfolio of high growth leaders. Sharpe ratios over a 3Y and 5Y window outperformed ARK’s flagship fund: ARKK....

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精彩评论

Jaymand
2021-05-13
Jaymand
Please share and like
StockWatcher
2021-05-13
StockWatcher
Agree. Judging from its 10 yr chart, pretty good to treat it as fixed deposit. Should consider entry in recent dip
manekineko
2021-05-13
manekineko
Nice
Maydelyn
2021-05-13
Maydelyn
Qqq.. a good ETF to track the tech stock if you are scared to invest purely on a particular stock.. it helps to also reduce the risk one undertakes when investing only on 1 stock.
发哥1991
2021-05-13
发哥1991
[看涨]
- GM33:
  呀
Ollieoreo
2021-05-13
Ollieoreo
Like n comment
- ricebowl:
  Here u Go pls like and comment back
- Ahqiang:
  
  Nice
- bobiboo:
  liked

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Tech Bubble Is Not In QQQ\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-13 21:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4428089-the-tech-bubble-is-not-in-qqq-etf><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Invesco QQQ Trust ETF offers investors high quality access to a diversified portfolio of high growth leaders.\nSharpe ratios over a 3Y and 5Y window outperformed ARK’s flagship fund: ARKK....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4428089-the-tech-bubble-is-not-in-qqq-etf\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4428089-the-tech-bubble-is-not-in-qqq-etf","article_id":"1135513059","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135513059","pubTimestamp":1620912235,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nThe Invesco QQQ Trust ETF offers investors high quality access to a diversified portfolio o","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"科技泡沫不在QQQ","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Invesco QQQ Trust ETF offers investors high quality access to a diversified portfolio of high growth leaders.\nSharpe ratios over a 3Y and 5Y window outperformed ARK’s flagship fund: ARKK.\nDespite the rotation to cyclical and value plays, the secular growth themes for the leaders in QQQ remains well intact.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nThe Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) provides growth-oriented investors access to high quality, fast growing companies and have rewarded investors with superior returns in the past. With strong secular growth themes, investors are strongly encouraged to consider the QQQ if they prefer the convenience of investing in a fund as compared with investing in the individual stocks.\nQQQ Overview\nQQQ offers investors straightforward access into the secular growth themes for some of the most dominant large/mega-cap Tech companies based in the U.S.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nSome investors may not be aware that QQQ contains more than just companies in the Tech sector, even though Tech companies comprise 43.95% of the fund’s total holdings. (see chart above)\nThe stocks listed in QQQ are also almost all large/mega-caps, comprising 99.52% of the total fund’s holdings (see chart below).\n\nSource: etfdb\nQQQ is also a cap-weighted ETF, with the Top 10 holdings accounting for 52% of the total fund’s assets (see chart below).\n\nSource: etfdb\nQQQ As A Proxy To FAANG\nFAANG stocks:AAPL,MSFT,AMZN,GOOG,GOOGL,NVDA, accounted for about 43.68% of the total fund holdings (see chart below). Therefore, investors who are keen on gaining exposure to these FAANG stocks may choose to invest in QQQ as a proxy.\n\nSource: etfdb\n\nSource: Created using data sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence\nAlthough it may seem boring to invest in QQQ these days when you have other hot ETFs in the market like ARK Invest’s ETFs who registeredrecord fund flows, the QQQ continues to offer access to fast and high quality growth (see chart above) through the FAANGs that are also not expensive (see chart below).\n\nSource: Created using data sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence\nQQQ For Some Exposure to Disruptive Tech\nEven though ARK Invest probably has the best-known ETFs (ARKK,ARKG,ARKW,ARKQ,ARKF,ARKX) out there for the world of disruptive technology, QQQ offers investors some exposure to this theme as well through Tesla (TSLA). Tesla’s last recorded weighting in the QQQ’s assets came to about 4.07%. This is by no means a small weighting. ARK considers TSLA as one of its key holdings as the stock last recorded weighting in the flagship ARKK was about 10.87%, the highest among all holdings in the ETF (see chart below).\n\nSource: etfdb\n\nSource: Created using data sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence\nEven though ARKK outperformed the QQQ over the last 5 years (see chart above), ARKK has significantly underperformed the QQQ in the last 3 months as high growth stocks suffered the brunt of rotation plays in the market (see chart below).\n\nSource: Created using data sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence\nTherefore, investors must always be ready for significant volatility when you invest in pure disruptive plays like ARKK, as compared with a more diversified ETF like QQQ. In addition, if we consider risk-adjusted returns over the last 3 to 5 years, QQQ’s performance was superior to ARKK’s as QQQ registered 3Y and 5Y Sharpe ratios of 1.31 and 1.45 (see chart below), respectively, while ARKK’s was 1.23 and 1.38 (see chart below), respectively. Even though ARKK’s total return was higher, it also came at the expense of a lot more volatility, as compared with QQQ.\n\nSource: Yahoo Finance\n\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nQQQ Breadth Indicators\nInvestors can use 2 key metrics to evaluate the strength of QQQ’s breadth, to see whether there are “enough troops participating in the advance, even as the ETF is making new highs and check whether there is any hidden underlying weakness.\n\nThe first relates to the percentage of stocks in the QQQ that is trading above their respective 50 Day MA (see chart above). The 50 Day MA has always been a key dynamic support level to evaluate medium term trend health, and we want to see more troops participating in their respective advances even as the ETF’s price goes higher. The key level to watch is at the 30% mark as healthy advances usually saw at least 30% of the stocks participating.\nAs we all know, stocks never go up in a straight line, and likewise for the QQQ. Even when the number of stocks participating in the advance is high, for example at 70%, we may not want to add a position in QQQ at that level, because the advance may reach a momentary point of exhaustion soon before it starts to retrace. A safer entry point would be for the percentage of stocks above 50 Day MA to go below 30%, and at the point when it just reverses at or above 30%, investors may initiate or add to their positions. Currently, the QQQ is still some way from the 30% mark and so I do not see an optimal entry point right now.\n\nThe second relates to the QQQ McClellan Oscillator (see chart above). This measures the momentum of the underlying QQQ’s breadth to offer more clarity into the underlying strength or weakness of the advance. Clearly, we want the oscillator to be trending up while QQQ is advancing which indicates a healthy advance. Investors can also use the oscillator to plan for an optimal entry point, which is probably when the indicator crosses below -50, and then reverses back upwards above it.\nIf you study both indicators carefully, it’s clear that patience is often needed to find the optimal entry points over the time frames presented, and investors who bided their time in the past were handsomely rewarded. Patience has always been a hallmark of successful stock investing, and it is no difference for QQQ. Never chase, and wait for the entry point to come to you. In this case, this indicator had recently made a reversal, which could be considered an optimal entry point. However, since the percentage of stocks above 50 Day MA have not crossed below the 30% mark yet, I did not add more positions as I would prefer for both conditions to hold true to be considered as optimal entries.\nBacktesting The Breadth Indicators\nIn order to provide forward-looking insights into the importance of choosing your entry points based on the prevalent breadth conditions, I ran a backtest for the above 2 indicators.\nThe backtest conditions:\n1. Lookback period: 20 years.\n2. Observation period: 1 week. This means that the backtest provided the results of the performance, 1 week after the indicator condition was triggered.\n3. Excessively Bullish Indicator Condition Level: Crossed >85 for percentage of stocks in QQQ above 50 Day MA. Crossed >70 for QQQ McClellan Oscillator.\n4. Optimal Buy Point Indicator Condition Level: Crossed >30 for percentage of stocks in QQQ above 50 Day MA. Crossed >-50 for QQQ McClellan Oscillator\nThe results are presented below.\nSource: Created using data sourced from Bloomberg, Fidelity\nSource: Created using data sourced from Bloomberg, Fidelity\nFirst, the results from the QQQ McClellan Oscillator backtest (see above 2 charts) provided a very clear picture of strong performance with the optimal buy entry point (Such as times when investors were worried, concerned, coming off heavy sell-offs, etc.). Over a 20 year lookback period, the 1-week performance provided an average return of 0.36%, as compared with -0.03% if investors entered when the breadth was excessively bullish (Times when investors were so bullish, so happy, so sure that the price would keep going up, etc.). The total return over the number of trades that were triggered provided a return of 108% for the optimal buy entry point over their collective 1 week period, as compared with -3.2% when investors were excessively optimistic. The outperformance is clearly shown.\n\nSource: Created using data sourced from Bloomberg, Fidelity\nSource: Created using data sourced from Bloomberg, Fidelity\nNext, the test results from the breadth indicator condition also unveiled clear outperformance when entering with the optimal buy entry point. By using the optimal entry point, it provided an average return of 0.43% within a 1 week period and a total return of 53.8% for the collective 1 week periods, as compared with 0.09% and a total return of 10.1% for collective 1 week periods, when choosing to enter when markets were excessively bullish. Again, the outperformance is clearly shown.\nRisks\nEven though QQQ is quite a well-diversified ETF, the exposure of the fund is still weighted heavily towards the Tech sector. Therefore, investors must be prepared for Tech sector concentration risk, and also potential negative developments within that sector that may cause value compressions in the companies within the QQQ, which may also significantly affect its performance.\nNext, investing in QQQ also comes with higher volatility. The 3Y and 5Y standard deviation is 20.1% and 16.86%, respectively, as compared withSPY's 3Y and 5Y standard deviation of 18.49% and 14.96%, respectively. Investors should be prepared for larger drawdowns during periods of high volatility. (Source: Yahoo Finance)\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\n\nSource: TradingView\nEver since the COVID-19 market bottom on 23 Mar 20, QQQ has never lost support along the 50-period MA highlighted above, which has always acted as a strong dynamic support level and remained an area of key interest by the strong hands to support the advance, whenever the price retraced to the MA.\nAt the point of writing this article, we are there again now. However, this candlestick will only close by the end of the 12 May’s session in order for me to determine the dominant price action at that point in time. As of now, the price action looks like it may be rejecting the 50-period MA (not confirmed yet), and more possible selling may still take place before a possible reversal subsequently.\nIt’s important to note that the market doesn’t go up forever, and the 50-period MA may not always act as dynamic support levels. There will be times, like the COVID-19 bear market last year where the 50-period MA’s support was easily taken out by the wave of selling that swamped the market. Therefore, there’s no guarantee it will not happen again this time, so it may be prudent to plan your entries in batches.\nFor investors who wish to receive an update to the price action after 12 May's close may wish to bookmark this article, or follow me as I may update it within the comments section once I have the resolution over it.\nConclusion\nQQQ offers investors access to a diversified portfolio of high quality secular growth stocks with a Tech focus. Its superior long term Sharpe ratios should give investors confidence of its long run growth potential, and a worthy consideration for any growth-oriented investors’ portfolio.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":198901314,"gmtCreate":1620916434238,"gmtModify":1634195295767,"author":{"id":"3564142991914856","authorId":"3564142991914856","name":"Jaymand","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2ef74d005aec91c36d540483cb5d0f1","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Please share and like","listText":"Please share and like","text":"Please share and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198901314","repostId":1135513059,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":198079623,"gmtCreate":1620915887662,"gmtModify":1634195302676,"author":{"id":"3581565649060536","authorId":"3581565649060536","name":"StockWatcher","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/648f98c0d0a1e2a6bdf618a2b6cf1878","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Agree. Judging from its&nbsp;10 yr&nbsp;chart, pretty good to treat it as fixed deposit. Should consider entry in recent dip","listText":"Agree. Judging from its&nbsp;10 yr&nbsp;chart, pretty good to treat it as fixed deposit. Should consider entry in recent dip","text":"Agree. Judging from its 10 yr chart, pretty good to treat it as fixed deposit. Should consider entry in recent dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198079623","repostId":1135513059,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":198057172,"gmtCreate":1620915432896,"gmtModify":1634195309770,"author":{"id":"3557059841248518","authorId":"3557059841248518","name":"manekineko","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2621e2547da4dc7e450da498cd2e8341","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198057172","repostId":1135513059,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":198061491,"gmtCreate":1620914405213,"gmtModify":1631883990270,"author":{"id":"3577008220161864","authorId":"3577008220161864","name":"Maydelyn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Qqq.. a good ETF to track the tech stock if you are scared to invest purely on a particular stock.. it helps to also reduce the risk one undertakes when investing only on 1 stock.","listText":"Qqq.. a good ETF to track the tech stock if you are scared to invest purely on a particular stock.. it helps to also reduce the risk one undertakes when investing only on 1 stock.","text":"Qqq.. a good ETF to track the tech stock if you are scared to invest purely on a particular stock.. it helps to also reduce the risk one undertakes when investing only on 1 stock.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198061491","repostId":1135513059,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":198018458,"gmtCreate":1620913597974,"gmtModify":1634195336682,"author":{"id":"3570680486847650","authorId":"3570680486847650","name":"发哥1991","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7a603ab915f1c22c7a2a237b86de6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[看涨]&nbsp;","listText":"[看涨]&nbsp;","text":"[看涨]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198018458","repostId":1135513059,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4315781,"gmtCreate":1620914074837,"gmtModify":1635496143813,"authorId":3569478069644531,"author":{"id":3569478069644531,"authorId":3569478069644531,"name":"GM33","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93e233e9c84746e3cbd703306142c4eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":198018458,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"呀","text":"呀","html":"呀"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":198037378,"gmtCreate":1620913363194,"gmtModify":1634195339609,"author":{"id":"3574148719066230","authorId":"3574148719066230","name":"Ollieoreo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2519bd72a3f61c3e99309a5893dede5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like n comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198037378","repostId":1135513059,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4315643,"gmtCreate":1620913619709,"gmtModify":1635496154155,"authorId":3578561901514206,"author":{"id":3578561901514206,"authorId":3578561901514206,"name":"ricebowl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9ec802718dde5068862a7df929de4ed","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":198037378,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Here u Go pls like and comment back","text":"Here u Go pls like and comment back","html":"Here u Go pls like and comment back"},{"id":4315777,"gmtCreate":1620914047000,"gmtModify":1635496144139,"authorId":3581623906076754,"author":{"id":3581623906076754,"authorId":3581623906076754,"name":"Ahqiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1092801a68a2c434616e6e98563cfb6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":198037378,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<br>\n<br>Nice","text":"<br>\n<br>Nice","html":"<br>\n<br>Nice"},{"id":4315945,"gmtCreate":1620914599743,"gmtModify":1635496135045,"authorId":3579083310046969,"author":{"id":3579083310046969,"authorId":3579083310046969,"name":"bobiboo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c7f12ad0bf9291eccf6fc85ffd3887d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":198037378,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"liked","text":"liked","html":"liked"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":55,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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