ChatGPT成股神！能预测股市走势，投资回报率高达500%！

AIGC开放社区2023-05-12

5月11日，美国顶级公立大学-佛罗里达大学金融学院公布了一项研究，将ChatGPT融合在投资模型中，可以预测股市的走势，投资回报率达到了惊人的500%，并且超过对冲基金使用的传统股市情绪分析模型，堪称AI界的“巴菲特”！从论文内容来看，其方法是用ChatGPT深度分析上市公司发布的新闻标题、内容，来确定是好消息还是坏消息。然后，对这些内容进行评级，再通过复杂的计算公式制成“ChatGPT指数”，...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Juliusdk
2023-05-14
Juliusdk
理论和实盘是两回事，如果准确性过高，大家都来参与，反而会降低收益导致准确性也降低。
旷野步行者
2023-05-13
旷野步行者
他拿什么来预测，拿吹牛B吗
至诚之道可以前知
2023-05-13
至诚之道可以前知
在A股不行，A股的虚假消息，各种市场小作文会把AI搞懵逼！国外的消息，好就是好，坏就是坏。
alexande007
2023-05-13
alexande007
在美国股市可能还行，要是chatgpt来炒A股，肯定死得快，因为我们a股里有很多先知（内幕交易），shit！
SKA
2023-05-13
SKA
AI无法分析谎言和超预期的市场情绪，让它预测中国股市试试，分分钟死定。
- 真的英雄:
  大a不能做空，今天买明天才能卖，这些规则注定就是一场骗局
- alexande007:
  因为大a里有先知（n幕交易）
lauder
2023-05-12
lauder
模型回测几倍太正常了，实际跑又是另一回事了

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Can predict the trend of the stock market, and the return on investment is as high as 500%!","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec88b52df2d5d3e46b8d707f77fbedc","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"5月11日，美国顶级公立大学-佛罗里达大学金融学院公布了一项研究，将ChatGPT融合在投资模型中，可以预测股市的走势，投资回报率达到了惊人的500%，并且超过对冲基金使用的传统股市情绪分析模型，堪称AI界的“巴菲特”！从论文内容来看，其方法是用ChatGPT深度分析上市公司发布的新闻标题、内容，来确定是好消息还是坏消息。然后，对这些内容进行评级，再通过复杂的计算公式制成“ChatGPT指数”，结合公司的实时股价进行比对，以验证ChatGPT的分析能力。该研究使用了2021年10月至 2022年12月，CRSP（证券价格研究中心）公开的真实股市数据和新闻进行测试。由ChatGPT 提供的“多空策略”交易建议，在此期间获得了超过500%的收益。这一出色表现与同期购买和持有标准普尔 500 ETF的-12%回报率形成强烈对比。也就是说，ChatGPT的股票投资水平，已经超过了专业金融分析师和传统分析平台。研究主要发现ChatGPT的分析能力优于传统的股市情绪分析模型；ChatGPT等大语言模型可能会对金融分析领域产生颠覆性，从根本上改变投资决策的方法；ChatGPT等大语言模型可能会对金融界就业产生影响；GPT-1、GPT-2以及其他基础类型的大语言模型都无法精准预测股市走势，只有GPT-3.5或以上版本的大语言模型才可以；金融界应该积极探索ChatGPT等大语言模型与其他技术相结合使用，从而打造功能更强大的投资模型。ChatGPT预测股市走势方法该研究模型主要由数据、ChatGPT提问设置、实证设计、结果4大块组成。数据：使用了CRSP的数据，包含纽交所、纳斯达克、美国证劵交易中心的股票每日收益、新闻标题/内容。时间范围是2021年10月至 2022年12月。ChatGPT提问设置：直接向ChatGPT提问上市公司的新闻，例如，Rimini Street在甲骨文的侵权案件中被罚款630,000美元，这个消息在短时间内，对甲骨文的股价是好还是坏？ChatGPT的回答是：该消息对甲骨文的股价是有利的，因为罚款可能会增加投资者对甲骨文保护其知识产权能力的信心，从而增加用户对其产品和服务的需求。而专业分析工具给出了负面消息，不利于甲骨文的股价。这充分体现了ChatGPT的拟人化分析能力。实证设计：将ChatGPT的回答进行打分制，有利是1分；不利-1分；未知0分。如果一家上市公司在某一天有多个头条新闻，会将其得分平均计算。然后会观察上市公司发布消息后其股价的波动情况，结合ChatGPT的评分进行线性回归分析，并将其与股票研究机构提供的分数进行比较。结果：通过利用新闻标题数据和生成的评分制，发现 ChatGPT 的评估数据，与上市公司股票的每日回报之间存在很强的关联性。这一结果说明， ChatGPT 的评分对每日股市回报有显著预测能力。为了进一步研究ChatGPT的能力，将 ChatGPT的评分与传统的数据分析平台进行了比较，发现远远高于传统股市情绪分析模型。ChatGPT对金融行业的影响Two Sigma、D E Shaw和 Renaissance Technologies等几家世界级对冲基金，已经将股票情绪分析纳入到自动化交易系统。股票情绪分析是金融分析师预测股市走势的重要方法之一。股票情绪分析主要包含投资者情绪指数、社交媒体和新闻分析、舆论监测、市场交易数据分析等。以社交媒体和新闻分析为例，通过对社交媒体（如微博、知乎、百度等）的文本进行大数据挖掘和自然语言处理技术分析，可以获取投资者对特定股票，或整个市场的看法和情感。这些信息可用于预测股票价格和市场走势。这种复杂的组合分析方法，仅靠人工和传统分析平台根本无法做出精准实时的预测。而ChatGPT在理解股市头条新闻及其影响方面的出色表现，会加剧金融领域的“生成式AI军备赛”。关于佛罗里达大学佛罗里达大学（University of Florida，简称UF）创建于1853年，位于美国佛罗里达州的盖恩斯维尔，是一所享有盛誉的公立研究型大学，在全球范围内的排名表现较为出色。根据2021年QS世界大学排名，UF位居全球第162位。在2021年泰晤士高等教育世界大学排名中，UF排名在201-250名之间。此外，根据2021年美国新闻与世界报道的全球大学排名，佛罗里达大学位列第103位。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":656734543,"gmtCreate":1683993743582,"gmtModify":1683993745368,"author":{"id":"3452936632054541","authorId":"3452936632054541","name":"Juliusdk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6219675842600ebb42baa43c645832","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3452936632054541","authorIdStr":"3452936632054541"},"htmlText":"理论和实盘是两回事，如果准确性过高，大家都来参与，反而会降低收益导致准确性也降低。","listText":"理论和实盘是两回事，如果准确性过高，大家都来参与，反而会降低收益导致准确性也降低。","text":"理论和实盘是两回事，如果准确性过高，大家都来参与，反而会降低收益导致准确性也降低。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656734543","repostId":1134966771,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":656475434,"gmtCreate":1683936046228,"gmtModify":1683942414121,"author":{"id":"3499423420109247","authorId":"3499423420109247","name":"旷野步行者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b5f40942d2e8c29a30a3b10e63336e2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3499423420109247","authorIdStr":"3499423420109247"},"htmlText":"他拿什么来预测，拿吹牛B吗","listText":"他拿什么来预测，拿吹牛B吗","text":"他拿什么来预测，拿吹牛B吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656475434","repostId":1134966771,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":656475306,"gmtCreate":1683933878805,"gmtModify":1683933880526,"author":{"id":"3533639338107797","authorId":"3533639338107797","name":"至诚之道可以前知","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa00a1c09acbbf99518a8e2db4e74435","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3533639338107797","authorIdStr":"3533639338107797"},"htmlText":"在A股不行，A股的虚假消息，各种市场小作文会把AI搞懵逼！国外的消息，好就是好，坏就是坏。","listText":"在A股不行，A股的虚假消息，各种市场小作文会把AI搞懵逼！国外的消息，好就是好，坏就是坏。","text":"在A股不行，A股的虚假消息，各种市场小作文会把AI搞懵逼！国外的消息，好就是好，坏就是坏。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656475306","repostId":1134966771,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":656472870,"gmtCreate":1683932407890,"gmtModify":1683942396686,"author":{"id":"3572071041496714","authorId":"3572071041496714","name":"alexande007","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7204136f9322395ab13073bd18d7ef40","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572071041496714","authorIdStr":"3572071041496714"},"htmlText":"在美国股市可能还行，要是chatgpt来炒A股，肯定死得快，因为我们a股里有很多先知（内幕交易），shit！","listText":"在美国股市可能还行，要是chatgpt来炒A股，肯定死得快，因为我们a股里有很多先知（内幕交易），shit！","text":"在美国股市可能还行，要是chatgpt来炒A股，肯定死得快，因为我们a股里有很多先知（内幕交易），shit！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656472870","repostId":1134966771,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":656472037,"gmtCreate":1683928804930,"gmtModify":1683929295370,"author":{"id":"3508922168494770","authorId":"3508922168494770","name":"SKA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3508922168494770","authorIdStr":"3508922168494770"},"htmlText":"AI无法分析谎言和超预期的市场情绪，让它预测中国股市试试，分分钟死定。","listText":"AI无法分析谎言和超预期的市场情绪，让它预测中国股市试试，分分钟死定。","text":"AI无法分析谎言和超预期的市场情绪，让它预测中国股市试试，分分钟死定。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656472037","repostId":1134966771,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7978505,"gmtCreate":1683932929953,"gmtModify":1683932933570,"authorId":3472509891364152,"author":{"id":3472509891364152,"idStr":"3472509891364152","authorId":3472509891364152,"name":"真的英雄","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/840859d8f7d3c5c63498b7f330b98705","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"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