放眼望去皆泡沫，投资者该怎么做：继续买是唯一选择

彭博环球财经2021-01-26

过度投机迹象已经在华尔街四处显现。仙股飙升，资金扎堆炒题材，高风险债券的风险溢价低到前所未见。在这种冒险泛滥和估值达到历史性水平的环境下，投资者该怎么办？显然是继续买。美国股票交易所交易基金(ETF)上周流入70亿美元，其中，追踪从太阳能到机器人在内最热门题材的策略流入资金最多。标普500指数上涨了1.9%，创下去年11月以来最大周涨幅，持仓集中度全球第二的科技股再次刷新纪录高位。这一切促使...

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精彩评论

琳泽
2021-01-27
琳泽
继续买买买
小范范
2021-01-27
小范范
装死
- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
小闸蟹
2021-01-26
小闸蟹
控制仓位谨慎做多
Andersonzol
2021-01-26
Andersonzol
接盘

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Nguyen在分析各种情绪指标的报告中称。“市场指标显示投机越来越多。”\n\n这些指标并不难找。散户投资者正对投机程度最高的交易策略推波助澜，新股发行市场交易活跃，SPDR标普500指数ETF信托的空头持仓接近十年低点。\n数据显示，美国发放上一轮用于疫情纾困的个人补贴后，股票购买量进一步增加。而且不仅散户如此。根据美国银行的最新调查，表示自身风险敞口高于正常水平的投资者人数达到纪录高位，他们合计资产规模达5,610亿美元。\n难怪Clissold和Nguyen将他们的报告命名为“还有空头在吗？”\n都是相对的\n高盛策略师称非常高增长、高市盈率的股票和各特殊目的收购公司已经陷入“不可持续的过剩”。\n但他们也表示，当计入美国国债收益率、企业信贷和现金因素后，整体市场估值仍低于历史平均水平。\n花旗持相同看法。Robert Buckland领导的全球策略团队从相对和历史角度衡量了全球股票价格，得出的结论是就连已然昂贵的美股都还有上行空间。\n“我们绝不建议任何人追逐泡沫，”他们在周五报告中写道。“泡沫随时都可能破裂。但是如果市盈率能达到先前高点，美国股指就可能进一步上涨50-100%。而且这还是看绝对估值。如果对比债券收益率来衡量，连纳斯达克指数都显得便宜。”\n但摩根大通Mislav Matejka领导的分析师在周一报告中称，新股发行火热、炒题材、日内短线交易日益活跃和加密货币的“戏剧性走势”都是泡沫之忧登上舞台中央的原因。\n分析师们称，在充斥着“过剩”央行流动性的市场中，这场辩论还将继续。\n轨道上捡硬币\n这场辩论的一个方面是，提振股票的再通胀题材可能意外成为债券投资者的烦恼。\n基准10年期美国国债收益率未能突破1.2%，大量投资级债券收益率接近或低于零，同时美国垃圾级债券价格已接近历史高位。\n久期风险和通胀风险就在其中酝酿。在其它条件不变的情况下，消费者价格上升尤其会削弱长期债券价值。这种情况可能很快就会显现出来，德意志银行上周调查显示，77%的受访者预计有通胀压力。\n为此，伦敦Algebris Investments的基金经理Alberto Gallo采取防守策略，将三分之一资金放到现金和市场对冲，等待下跌时进场抄底。\n“我们在信贷市场上看到的很多情况是投资者在火车轨道上捡几分钱硬币，”他说道。“持有长期投资级债券会面临利率风险，同时，如果经济衰退或新变异毒株使疫情反扑，利差就会扩大。”\n花旗团队提到，历史证明泡沫膨胀过程中有盈利机会。熊市会到来，但在此之前“市场泡沫可能增多”。\n\n资料来源：美国银行\n除此之外，资金在场外赚不到钱。\n“人们抱怨估值，但场外有大量现金需要投资，”苏黎世Fisch Asset Management的高级投资组合经理Maria Staeheli表示。“不投资就面临非常大的机会成本--在负存款利率情况下这是真真切切的成本。”\n不过，在各资产估值达到历史性水平和风险仓位高企的情况下，美国银行策略师警告称，市场回调可能近在眼前。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":313607851,"gmtCreate":1611704059573,"gmtModify":1703752453934,"author":{"id":"3570862249802913","authorId":"3570862249802913","name":"琳泽","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfd5d838ee0092c092975272f9a47b0e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570862249802913","authorIdStr":"3570862249802913"},"htmlText":"继续买买买","listText":"继续买买买","text":"继续买买买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313607851","repostId":1134073236,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":313847577,"gmtCreate":1611700178999,"gmtModify":1703752426980,"author":{"id":"3573077338262174","authorId":"3573077338262174","name":"小范范","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20d7870bf9ba097cbd5c0e06283c5dd9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573077338262174","authorIdStr":"3573077338262174"},"htmlText":"装死","listText":"装死","text":"装死","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313847577","repostId":1134073236,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3395232,"gmtCreate":1611700885796,"gmtModify":1611700885796,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":313847577,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a 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