如何把握“中特估”行情？一篇看懂主要逻辑：四大主线和三条辅线

华尔街见闻2023-05-14

广发证券指出，本轮央企改革“站位更高、格局更大、任务更急”，从四大主线和三条辅助线索（重组改革/“世界一流”/产业转型/“一利五率”；高股息率/投关管理/资本开支）把握重估动能。国企改革进入新阶段，“中特估”概念迎来大爆发，成为近期贯穿沪深两市的主线，本轮央国企重估应该把握哪些方向？广发证券在最新的报告中全面梳理央国企重估核心逻辑，从四大主线和三条辅助线索解读重估动能。改革开放以来我国四轮国企改革...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

欲穷千里目
2023-05-14
欲穷千里目
好高骛远，言之无物。像极我青春期时的人生规划，对标比尔盖茨，豪气冲云端，而今一切虚无缥缈，贻笑大方！😆
cornpop
2023-05-14
cornpop
都这时候还把握个球
lvpking
2023-05-14
lvpking
欧欧
lvpking
2023-05-14
lvpking
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
lvpking
2023-05-14
lvpking
，，，，，，，，小拒要66我舅舅绝薛⊙∀⊙！e，
lvpking
2023-05-14
lvpking
哦可以隐隐约约8 还有

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同业竞争资产重组，利于盘活缺乏持续经营能力、长期丧失融资功能的存量资产，或者加强优质资产集中度，如中航电子换股吸收合并中航机电，关注央企集团旗下具有2家及以上上市平台，且主营业务重合度高的标的；（2）分拆上市，利于母公司剥离非优势业务、子公司拓宽融资渠道及提高经营效率，如中国联通分拆子公司智网科技至科创板上市，关注央企集团旗下上市平台数量少或仅1家、主业集中度低的标的；（3）未上市资产注入，利于优质资产向上市公司汇集或盘活存量资产，如中航电测拟收购成飞集团，关注资产证券化率相对低的央企集团，即具备一定未上市优质。2、对标国际龙头广发证券指出，前后两批世界一流示范央企在ROE和盈利增速上逐步赶超央企整体水平，尤其重视研发投入，根据3月31日国资委副主任翁杰明表述，世界一流示范企业力争研发投入强度超过行业平均值2倍以上。国资委从“五维度”定义“世界一流”，“主业突出、技术领先、管理先进、绩效优秀、全球资源配置能力强”的世界一流企业，可以对应相关路径：路径一：对标国际龙头存在ROE修复空间，提高国际化经营能力。PB-ROE视角下，石油石化、工程机械、电力等行业的世界一流示范央企与国际龙头差距相对 较大，着力提高国际竞争力，尤其是传统能源行业。路径二：央企“一带一路”参与度仍有提升空间。目前电力、交运、建筑等基 建类央企参与“一带一路”建设较多，据国资委公布数据，已有81家央企参与沿线 项目超过3400个，“十三五”期间央企实现海外营业收入超过24万亿元，对外投资收益率达到6.7%。据绿色“一带一路”中心官网数据，2020年参与投资 “一带一路” 国家项目的主要是央企。3、产业结构升级第三条主线为产业结构升级，广发证券指出，央国企参与构建现代化产业体系是题中应有之意，一方面契合我国经济结构转型升级的大势，另一方面以创新发展促央企内生增长，转型方向之一：自主创新能力。一方面，聚焦打造产业链链长企业；另一方面，在战略性新兴产业打造央企集团，比如半导体、新能源、操作系统、软件开发、 新材料等领域。转型方向之二：数字化能力。 我国央企正有序推进数字化转型行动计划，据《数字国资》最新统计，目前超60 家央企公布了数字化转型战略，主要聚焦在智慧能源和智慧交通领域。转型方向之三：绿色低碳能力。 央企实现绿色低碳转型共有五个重点方向：①传统产业低碳改造②布局新能源，推动能源结构优化、非化石能源占比提高；③发展循环经济④攻关绿色低碳技术⑤建立绿色投融机制等。4、“一利五率”经营考核国资委将央企经营指标体系由“两利四率”调整为“一利五率”，增强上市央企业绩预期：1. “一增”：利润总额增速维持超GDP增速的目标；2. “一稳”：资产负债率维持稳定在65%左右，根据国资委官网数据，22年央企资产负债率64.8%；3. “四提高”：新增的ROE、营业现金比率指标以及原有的研发投入强度、全员劳动生产率指标继续提高。因此，广发证券认为，应关注新增ROE、营业现金比率指标，指向行业：（1）ROE相对高且当前相对民 企低估的航运港口/电池/乘用车/化学原料；（2）营业现金比率相对高且当前相对民企低估的证券/航运港口/通信服务/保险/煤炭开采。三大辅线1、高股息权重升广发证券指出，国央企承担社会价值、重视股东回报（高股息），是国民经济的“压舱石”， 行业上主要集中于军工、电力、通信、机械设备等攸关国民经济的重点工业领域。第一，国央企重视股东回报，以高股息率践行国有资本的社会责任，5月9日， 三只中证国新央企股东回报ETF（广发、汇添富、招商）发布募集公告，该指数反映 高股东回报率（高股息率/回购率）央企的整体表现。第二，国央企中高ESG评级企业明显多于民企，且集中在军工、交运、计算机等央企低估行业。2、投资者关注度国央企的机构调研及个股关注度偏低，表明市场对国央企上市公司的价值认同度不足。相较于民营企业，股东对业绩的诉求较为宽松，更多是要求企业完成社会责任。然而，广发证券认为，社会责任与社会价值具有很高的正外部性，难以在现有的西方传统估值体系 、下有所衡量，进而造成了承担了更多社会责任的国有企业估值偏低的结果。3、加杠杆空间高2023年央企将加大关键领域投资力度，尤其是战略性新兴产业。根据广发证券总结，目前央企处于资本开支上行周期，投资的方向亦符合央企产业转型方向：1. 新基建，包含：（1）数字基建，如5G、数据中心、工业互联网、物联网、 算力基础设施；（2）新能源基建，如新能源充电桩、特高压。2. 产业链强链补链，聚焦高端装备、新一代信息技术、新材料等领域。3. 国家重大项目，包含国家“十四五”102个重大工程、中央企业“十四五”规划确定的1400项重大投资项目，如电网电力企业参与风光大基地项目等。4. 前瞻战略性新兴产业，主要包含前沿技术研发及应用，包括AI、量子计算、 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