Earnings Kick Off With Sky-High Forecasts, Record Stock Market

The Wall Street Journal2021-07-12

With stock valuations sitting above long-term norms, investors will be looking to company executives for clues on future profits. Wall Street is heading into earnings season this week with high ...

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Foreverhappy
2021-07-12
Foreverhappy
Great
WKB
2021-07-12
WKB
Like my comment?
theloy
2021-07-12
theloy
[得意] [得意]
4e6e78ce
2021-07-12
4e6e78ce
Watch and wait
Michelle23
2021-07-12
Michelle23
Nice
Kin23
2021-07-12
Kin23
Nice

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The S&P 500 has gained 16% this year and notched 38 record closes, most recently on Friday.\nWith stock valuations sitting above long-term norms, investors will also be looking to executives for clues on what the future holds for company profits.\n“Do people reward the markets even further from the levels that we’re seeing today?” said Amy Kong, chief investment officer at Barrett Asset Management. “It really depends I think on what management teams would say.”\nInvestors this week will parse results from big banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp., as well as from companies ranging from PepsiCo Inc. toDelta Air LinesInc.DAL2.02%toUnitedHealth GroupInc.UNH0.53%\nThe company earnings will offer a glimpse into how businesses are doing more than a year after the pandemicplunged the U.S. into a recession. With questions about the path of inflation and the labor market unresolved, investors haveshown signs of skittishnessabout the market’s course in the coming months.\nAnalysts project that profits for S&P 500 companies rose 64% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to FactSet, a growth rate that would be the highest in more than a decade. However, the growth will be measured from a period when much of the economy had been brought to a standstill from the pandemic as consumers retreated and some businesses saw steep declines in revenue. Analysts expect businesses constrained by the pandemic and economic slowdown, like the financial and industrial sectors, to more than double their profits from the same period in 2020.\n\nAlso, forecasts have drifted higher in recent months, helped by an unusually large number of companies advising investors that they expect earnings to come in higher than analysts had been estimating.\n“The reason for that is simple: The speed and robustness of the recovery is greater today than everyone anticipated three months ago,” said Hal Reynolds, chief investment officer at Los Angeles Capital Management.\nIt is more common for companies to try to lower expectations as they head into a reporting season.\nFederal Reserve officials at the central bank’s June policy meeting suggested theymight need to dial back their supportfor the economy earlier than expected because growth has been so strong.\n\nAt the same time, investors in recent days have been considering the threat that labor shortages, supply-chain bottlenecks and thehighly contagious Delta variantof the coronavirus might pose to their rosy economic outlooks.\nA rally in ultrasafe government bonds pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notebelow 1.3% last week, settling Thursday at its lowest level since February. Stocks sold off, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite on Thursdaysuffering their worst daily performancesin nearly three weeks before bouncing higher Friday.\nInvestors are weighing each new development with an eye on the hefty price tags that stocks have commanded since the market last year rocketed up from its pandemic lows.\nThe S&P 500 traded Thursday at nearly 22 times expected earnings over the next 12 months, above a five-year average of a little more than 18.\n“Valuations on their own don’t kill a market, but valuations make you vulnerable if there’s an unpleasant surprise,” said Tom Hancock, lead portfolio manager of the GMO Quality Fund.\nThe economy’s rebound from the pandemic has driven asurge in consumer prices, and investors want to know how higher costs for anything from materials to labor will affect corporations’ bottom lines.\nForecasts call for an S&P 500 net profit margin of 11.8% in the second quarter, above the five-year average of 10.6%, according to FactSet. That recent efficiency in generating profits could be vulnerable as costs rise.\nThere are signs investors might look harshly on companies struggling to stay fully staffed.FedExCorp.shares fell 3.9% the day after the delivery giant’s June earnings report—and executives saiddifficulty hiring package handlershad driven wages higher and created inefficiency.\nIf that experience turns out to be widely shared, it could reshape expectations for the costs that U.S. companies will bear going forward—and potentially the prices their shares are worth.\n“I come back to inflation and margins being something that could really create a pause with stocks,” said Larry Cordisco, co-lead portfolio manager of the Osterweis Growth & Income Fund. “Certainly if there’s wage inflation that starts to take hold, I think that is going to get people’s attention.”\nShares ofDarden RestaurantsInc.meanwhile, rose 3.2% the day after the parent company of Olive Gardentopped earnings estimates, even as it pointed to a rise in the costs of food and labor. The company shared a sales forecast that assumes full operating capacity for essentially all restaurants and no significant interruptions related to the pandemic.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":146102209,"gmtCreate":1626056775201,"gmtModify":1631891560119,"author":{"id":"4088029059058460","authorId":"4088029059058460","name":"Foreverhappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f283a5fea6544040fd5f8b4c904d2053","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088029059058460","authorIdStr":"4088029059058460"},"htmlText":"Great&nbsp;","listText":"Great&nbsp;","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146102209","repostId":1133868961,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":146395783,"gmtCreate":1626052862242,"gmtModify":1633930643529,"author":{"id":"3580984813011332","authorId":"3580984813011332","name":"WKB","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580984813011332","authorIdStr":"3580984813011332"},"htmlText":"Like my comment?","listText":"Like my comment?","text":"Like my comment?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146395783","repostId":1133868961,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":146951578,"gmtCreate":1626050854894,"gmtModify":1633930685348,"author":{"id":"3576745800689766","authorId":"3576745800689766","name":"theloy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a23d8042aeed9edf408aed28de027def","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576745800689766","authorIdStr":"3576745800689766"},"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意] [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146951578","repostId":1133868961,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":146921883,"gmtCreate":1626050374442,"gmtModify":1633930694522,"author":{"id":"4087351235415740","authorId":"4087351235415740","name":"4e6e78ce","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087351235415740","authorIdStr":"4087351235415740"},"htmlText":"Watch and wait","listText":"Watch and wait","text":"Watch and wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146921883","repostId":1133868961,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":146966203,"gmtCreate":1626050024502,"gmtModify":1633930701504,"author":{"id":"3584916379597961","authorId":"3584916379597961","name":"Michelle23","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12189cc52e8334b349f443c43fcbbe9e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584916379597961","authorIdStr":"3584916379597961"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146966203","repostId":1133868961,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":146982110,"gmtCreate":1626049613330,"gmtModify":1633930711572,"author":{"id":"3577603745137284","authorId":"3577603745137284","name":"Kin23","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577603745137284","authorIdStr":"3577603745137284"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146982110","repostId":1133868961,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":121,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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